According to the latest exit poll study, conducted for tv Republic, I circular of presidential elections was won by Rafał Trzaskowski. The difference between him and the second in the order of Karol Nawrocki, however, is small, which announces an breathtaking 2nd round. What are the exact results and what can mean for the future president of Poland.
Exit Poll 2024: Results of the first circular of presidential elections
Exit poll survey indicates that Rafał Trzaskowski won 31.6% votes, while Karol Nawrocki obtained 29.8%. In 3rd place was Sławomir Mentzen with the consequence 14%, which confirms the strong position of his group among voters.
Full list of exit poll results:
- Rafał Trzaskowski – 31.6%
- Karol Nawrocki – 29.8%
- Sławomir Mentzen – 14%
- Adrian Zandberg – 6%
- Grzegorz Braun – 5.4%
- Simon Holovnia – 4.7%
- Magdalena Biejat – 4.4%
- Krzysztof Stanowski – 1.3%
- Joanna Senyszyn – 1.3%
- Marek Jakubiak – 0.7%
- Artur Bartoszewicz – 0.5%
- Maciej Maciak – 0.2%
- Marek Woch – 0.1%
What's next? Fighting for votes in II round
The difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki is only 1.8 percent points, which means that the second circular can be highly even. It will be crucial to get the electorate of another candidates, especially Mentzen, Zandberg and Holownia.
Experts shall indicate that:
- Mentzen voters can mostly support Nawrock, which would give him an advantage.
- Electoral Trzaskowski can strengthen himself by the voices of left and centre voters.
- Turnout in the second circular can be decisive – the higher, the better the chances of Trzaskowski.
The court must approve the outcome! And here's the problem!
In this case, it should be stressed that the presidential elections disagree importantly from the parliamentary elections, both in terms of procedure and legal effects. 1 of the key differences is the deficiency of a presumption of validity of presidential elections, which, unlike parliamentary elections, must be approved by the ultimate Court (Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland).
In accordance with Article 129(1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland:
“The validity of the president of the Republic’s election is stated by the ultimate Court.”
This work is presently being exercised by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the ultimate Court. In view of the case-law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (e.g. Case C-585/18, C-624/18 and C-625/18) and of the European Court of Human Rights (e.g. Case C-585/18), and of the European Court of Human Rights (e.g. Case C-585/18), Reczkowicz p. Poland, complaint No 43447/19), it is indicated that this Chamber does not meet the standards of an independent and impartial court established by the Act. It includes persons appointed with gross violations of the regulation of law and constitutional procedures, including the engagement of a body called "neo-KRS", whose legality has been undermined by many judgments of national and global courts.
Therefore, regardless of the result of the second circular of the presidential election – regardless of whether candidate A or candidate B win – a major legal problem arises. The question of the legality of the body liable for the determination of the validity of the elections may lead to a situation where the ruling of the ultimate Court is not deemed to have been given by a court established in accordance with the law. Consequently, this may prevent the elected president from taking office effectively, as Article 130 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland states that the president shall take office after taking his oath to the National Assembly, which requires prior determination of the validity of the election.
Such a situation could lead to serious constitutional chaos and destabilisation of state bodies. In utmost cases, it can be utilized by policy makers to introduce extraordinary constitutional measures specified as emergency or even martial law (based on Articles 229 to 234 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland), which poses a serious hazard to the legal order and democratic strategy of the state.
Summary: Who has a better chance in the second round?
Although exit poll points to the minimum advantage of Trzaskowski, everything depends on the mobilisation of voters and political alliances. If Nawrocki can get a right-wing electorate, he can reverse the score.
Continued here:
Another Exit Poll: Rafał Trzaskowski wins I tour the alleged presidential election!
