The unscriptural people are getting into the head of why the housing scandal did not bring down Karol Nawrocki. Is it due to the fact that buying out municipal or cooperative housing is the experience of millions of Poles and Poles? Or is it about cynicism – simply cleverness is not perceived poorly in writing people? Both are false.
The housing scandal undoubtedly harmed the PiS candidate for president. If it wasn't for her, the Nawrocks would most likely have won the first round, and that would have been beautiful impressive. The housing scandal covered his visit to Washington, D.C., which was to be the main hit of the Law and Justice during the ongoing election campaign. Photos with Trump or videos from a friendly conversation with Marco Rubio may have been a gamechanger of this election campaign, and yet they did not break through to the voters' awareness and convince them to change their mind, as the media was flooded with information about an highly ethical takeover of the flat from the municipal resource.
Before the housing scandal broke out Nawrocki was speeding up, and Trzaskowski was braking rapidly. By data from Politico, from the beginning of April to the beginning of May, the support for Trzaskowski fell from 35 percent to 31 percent, while the support for Nawrocki grew from 23 percent to 25 percent. After a visit to Trump, Nawrocki's polls improved by 1 more percent point – on 9 May he reached 26 percent and his main rival 31 percent. Since then, support for Nawrocki has slowed down, as has the decline in support for Trzaskowski. Which was most likely the consequence of breaking into public opinion information about the takeover of the municipal premises by the PiS candidate.
You can't win with a hard electorate.
In the end, Nawrocki's score was 4–5 percent points higher than the poll average, but it was known from the beginning that it was underestimated and respective points had to be added to it. This is the consequence of the fact that any of the PiS voters avoid giving answers to the pollists, which is the consequence of very advanced concern among the electorate of the Kaczyński party. The PiS voters are genuinely frightened and afraid to hand over all power to Donald Tusk's group. Therefore, they preferred to close their noses and vote for Nawrocki, who is the only 1 who gives a real chance to prevent Trzaskowski from entering the palace.
The housing scandal itself was very badly received in the PiS electorate. This thesis is based on conversations with a circumstantial group of electorate of this party, due to the fact that with the working mediate class of Tychów, which is well-oriented in politics and small inclined to overlook someone's machloikas. However, the working mediate class is an crucial section of the electorate of this party. Nawrocki has no good opinion there, on the contrary – they consider him a suspicious type. For a long time, the support for Nawrocki was importantly lower than the support of the Law and Justice. Not due to the fact that – at least not just due to the fact that – he was unrecognizable. besides due to the fact that it does not inspire trust – at least in this better placed and oriented group of electorate of the Kaczyński party.
This group's support was provided by the PiS with 2 terms of indivisible government. The iron electorate from tiny towns is besides small. Let us not forget, however, that Nawrocki only finished second with support of little than 30%. The Law and Justice has not had specified a low score since a fewer tenure. Even in the last election in 2023, erstwhile it gave power to the current coalition, it won with a consequence of over 35%. 4 years earlier, they had reached under 44 percent. Support for the Law and Justice in the years of his triumphs never consisted solely of an iron electorate. It has always been supplemented by this better placed working mediate class that orbited the PiS, but conditionally.
So Nawrocky brought only an iron electorate in the first round, which would vote for even anyone issued by the Law and Justice. The electorate didn't mind. You can see this in investigation – both in the poll Opinion24and IBRiS, only for little than 30 percent of respondents is not problematic. The other was 54 and 60 percent respectively. As a result, Nawrocki did not attract his possible further electorate, loose and conditional, whose support gave PiS victory. Among another things, due to the housing scandal, but besides the suspicious past and perfectly visible violent personality.
This electorate in the first circular passed to another candidates. Partially into Mentzena, but besides Zandberg, whose score is amazingly high, among another things, due to attracting electorate usually not voting for left-wing parties. In the second round, however, they will block their noses and vote on Nawrocki due to the fact that Trzaskowski is unacceptable to them. mostly due to the fear of giving up the Tusk organization to all power. Anxiety, which is definitely underestimated in Trzaskovsky's staff and on the non-written side.
PiS voters hatred more
It must be remembered that on the side of the Opologist distrust of the Civic Coalition is enormous. Donald Tusk is considered to be a violent politician there, who at all costs will strive to destruct the writing camp. This can be seen in CBOS research. W report of 2024 Partial sympathies and antipathy – approval of political groups in Poland“ The reluctance of PiS voters to KO is by far the top antipathy of all electorates. The results were given on a scale from -3 to 3 – the closer the three, the greater the sympathy. The consequence of the PiS voters against KO was as much as -2,66. The approach of KO voters to the PiS was -1,78.
This mistrust of KO is inactive stimulated by the unprecedented settlement of predecessors. The charges received not only evident cases specified as Matecki or Romanowski. Błaszczak (together with Cenckiewicz) is besides waiting for problems for declassified old defence plans or Morawiecki for alleged envelope elections. During this term, as many as 3 committees of enquiry were launched, 1 of which was actually justified, dealing with the Pegasus case. Worse still, she was the 1 who most compromised the unsuccessful effort to interview the erstwhile minister of justice and the curiosity effort to put him in jail for 31 days, which was sentenced to failure from the beginning.
Television Republic threatens to revoke the terrestrial broadcasting licence, which many of its voters in the state usage – a mostly iron electorate. Of course, it's a court ruling from a private media party's case, but it fits perfectly into the climate of danger. Like Donald Tusk's brutal speech in the Sejm on Tuesday 20 May, which is likely to harm Trzaskowski, as he will mobilize the okopiski people.
The accounts enjoy the KO database. But it's besides small.
Tusk's words to Matecki, 1 of the most dark figures in Polish politics, about a "time pass", are completely unacceptable in the mouth of the chief of executive power. It is not the Prime Minister who decides whether individual is in jail or in custody, but independent courts for which executive power should not push from the Sejm Court. Even in cases like Matecki.
Therefore, it can be assumed that Nawrocki in the second circular will receive votes of the loose PiS electorate – even the 1 who voted for Zandberg. I personally know many of them. The atmosphere in the people of okopisko is simply a climate of danger and anxiety. Fear of Trzaskowski in the palace. partially justified, since the actions of the present power toward the predecessors did not should be so violent. Unfortunately, KO was seduced by its iron electorate, who encouraged her to settle. Only the KO electorate is smaller and little disciplined.
Trzaskowski should therefore, as far as possible, cut off from the government and convince that after the triumph he will be independent, irreplaceable to the pressures of the head of his motherly organization and representing all Poles. At the same time, it must fish in different groups of electorate, not struggling on the right, due to the fact that it looks fatal and unnatural. Whether it will win – it is hard to say. The run before the first circular was badly played.
Nawrocki is in the gas, Trzaskowski is extinguished. Let us remind that he competed from the level of support of the order of 39 percent and Nawrocki 22 percent. Even if we presume that Nawrocki's support from the beginning was understated by 4–5 points, the difference was inactive more than 10 points.
Nawrockie is encouraged by the mobilisation of the electorates of the okołapisów and the tremendous distrust of the president of Warsaw among right-wing voters. Moreover, a large CPAC Conservative force event will be held in Rzeszów a week before the election, where many right-wing politicians from abroad will most likely appear and possibly any loud name from the US. The CPAC in the second circular is to be for Nawrocki the same as the visit to the White home before the first.
Trzaskowski should so search to demobilise the PiS electorate, cutting off as far as possible from the government, and to mobilise his own voters. And he's got these on his left and center. On the right side there is most likely nothing to look for – the effects will be alternatively poor, but the discouragement of its voters will increase.
