In fresh years, Poland and the Baltic countries have faced a increasing hybrid threat from Russia. The German paper "Welt am Sonntag" indicates that this region may become a place of escalation of the armed conflict. Experts fear that this is where the war with NATO may begin.
Baltic countries and Poland intensify their defence efforts, strengthening borders and expanding military spending. writer Philip Fritz notes that 1 of the elements of the hybrid threat is the migration crisis on the Polish-Belarusian border. The government of Alaksandra Lukashenka deliberately directs migrants from the mediate East and Africa to Poland, seeking to destabilise the interior situation and weaken the European Union. Warsaw describes these actions as “a hybrid war supported by the Kremlin”.
According to reports, in 2022 more than 20 000 migrants attempted to illegally cross the Polish-Belarusian border. This means an increase of over 500 % compared to the erstwhile year. Russia and Belarus usage a wide scope of destabilisation methods, including cyber attacks, misinformation, sabotage activities and espionage. Agents acting on behalf of Russian services frequently conduct operations in an undetected manner, recruiting people unaware of the real intent of their activities.
Experts inform that a possible conflict may start with attempts to cut off the Baltic States by seizing the Suwałki gulf – the only land link between these countries and the remainder of NATO. Moreover, according to intelligence reports, Russia strengthens its atomic possible in the region, which reduces consequence time to possible attack. In the face of these threats, Poland and the Baltic States intensify their defence efforts.
All countries of the region have exceeded NATO-required military spending of 2% of GDP, with Poland spending more than 4%. In 2022 Poland spent over PLN 50 billion on the military, which represents an increase of over 20% compared to the erstwhile year. Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia besides increase their military spending by 15%, 12% and 10% respectively compared to the erstwhile year.
Russia continues its military expansion in the region, expanding the number of its troops stationed in the royal circuit and formed Leningrad military district. According to estimates, over 20,000 Russian soldiers are stationed in the royal circuit, an increase of over 50% compared to the erstwhile year. All this indicates that Poland and the Baltic countries are facing a real hybrid threat, which may escalate in the future.
In the face of these threats, Poland and another countries in the region must proceed their defence efforts, strengthening their borders and expanding spending on the military. At the same time, the European Union and NATO should increase their presence in the region in order to deter Russia from taking further aggressive action. All this indicates that Poland and the Baltic countries will become key players in future confrontation with Russia, and their safety and stableness will have a crucial impact on Europe as a whole.
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Hybrid threats: Poland and Baltic countries on fire
