Conversation with military expert Ruslan Puchov
Good morning, Mr. Ruslan. Thank you for taking the time to have this conversation. most likely the first time you have appeared in Polish media, at least since the launch of peculiar Military Operations?
– I think so. Earlier I frequently gave comments to Polish tv stations. I was close to the correspondent of “Gazeta Wyborcza” in Russia. Indeed, all of this ended with the launch of peculiar Military Operations.
Unfortunately. I would like to ask you about Poland in the beginning. What function do you think it plays in the full Ukrainian crisis? Is Poland just a transit area for arms supplies? Or is he playing a bigger role?
– Poland is clearly specified a logistics hub. It's like the another back. The back that Russia can't or won't hit right now. Polish support is so highly crucial for Ukrainians, primarily from a logistical point of view. Secondly, Poland is 1 of the main sponsors of their military, civilian, origin of equipment supplies. Above all, Ukrainian soldiers are evacuated to Poland. any refugees came to you. Therefore, it can be said that if Poland had a somewhat different policy, it would have been much more hard for the Ukrainian armed forces.
Yes, we heard even during Biden's time from the Secretary of State Blinken that about 80% of all arms supplies for Ukraine, Kiev passes through Poland. How crucial do you think the function of mercenaries is? A number of media, as well as, of course, the Russian Ministry of Defence, claim that rather a large number of Polish mercenaries are active in this armed conflict.
– You know, I don't know what it looks like erstwhile it comes to Polish mercenaries. There are many different rumours about the Polish language that is heard in radio stations, etc. However, we both know that there are a large number of people in Poland that can be described as Poles of Ukrainian origin. These are people for whom the native language is both Polish and Ukrainian. any of them, although I do not know what it looks like from the legal side, may have 2 passports – Polish and Ukrainian. The first problem, then, is who to respect as such. And the second thing is, according to our center's calculations, the number of mercenaries, volunteers, mostly abroad citizens fighting in the territory. Ukraine is simply a fewer thousand. Let's say possibly 15 or 17 thousand. Given the scale of the conflict and the spread of the front lines, it's a drop in the sea. It must besides be remembered that they are people of different ages, with different education, with different military preparations, with different wellness conditions. They besides talk different languages. Therefore, it frequently turns out that they are more a burden to the Armed Forces of Ukraine than any serious support. We gotta work with them somehow, give them orders somehow. And they have a completely different view of everything. Let's say, specified as Colombians even eat meals another than us in Poland, Ukraine or Russia. They can usually endure from digestive problems in the world. Therefore, frankly, I think the full communicative with any mercenaries is greatly exaggerated and very mythological.
What about Polish weapons? We've heard about crabs, for example. How do experts measure the weapons of Polish production?
– We can't rather sum it up yet. We can say 1 thing: Polish portable anti-aircraft rocket kits Grom and Piorun worked perfectly. The irony of destiny is that in the late 1990s. Russia sold Poland a licence to produce them. Russian specialists from Kolomna came to Skarżyska-Kamienna and helped run it. So Russia armed its opponent. We had this already in Georgia in 2008. However, now the supply of these weapons is no longer epidural, but mass. These sets were 100% true.
Returning to the arms supply, very different. Many people wonder why they were not destroyed by rocket strikes of railway lines and in general supply lines. What do you think?
– With all the criticism in the West and even in Russia itself, the full armed conflict actually at first was a peculiar military operation. Remember how Ukrainians blocked Russian military columns without any problem, even civilians. Americans in Iraq would just shoot them with device guns and the Russians would negociate with them. Therefore, I am convinced that in the first phase there were simply no specified orders. And all military dog is like a chain dog – he only attacks erstwhile he hears specified an order. No order – no attack. I am certain that initially there were orders to avoid destroying Ukrainian infrastructure, both energy and transport. I don't know what happened next. possibly this conflict has shown all its parties that the anti-aircraft defence has overcome aviation. Even having only old russian anti-aircraft defence systems, the Ukrainians for the first six, 9 months, or possibly even for a year, were very effective in defending themselves. Russian aviation, at least until the usage of guided bombs, could not fly much. It was attacked right away. Now we have a akin situation. Ukrainians regularly attack with large amounts of various drones. However, this has no intellectual effect. At first it was something shocking, but now we're utilized to it. Yes, military infrastructure attacks can be painful, as can oil infrastructure. However, this does not make panic for the population and, in principle, does not affect the course of the armed conflict. Unlike the Ukrainians, we are not dealing with power and water supply interruptions.
Let's decision on to different innovations. Of course, all conflict brings any technological and method progress. Would you be able to separate between the spheres of military technology in which specified advancement is already visible?
– Even before this war, it was rather clear that the amount of fire in the battlefield had reached specified a level that it was essential to retreat man from this field as far as possible. We can see, therefore, that now, before it comes to human face-to-face clashes, first we have artillery, rockets, then they decision drones, not only in the air, but besides land drones, sea drones, and shortly besides underwater. So we're dealing with field robotics. It was anticipated earlier, but no 1 thought it would happen so rapidly and radically. Another thing we can observe is the usage by Ukrainians of Starlinks and another civilian applications to fight, which allowed them to make a fog of war. Until recently, Ukrainians knew practically everything about us, and we knew much little about them. It's like we're fighting a blindfold, and they're fighting exposed eyes. We were fortunate in the first 2 years of the war due to the fact that they didn't have long-range weapons. Now these long-range weapons have been given to them, and partially produce them themselves. So today, not only can they see us, but they can scope us from a long distance. It is highly hard for us to maneuver due to the various types of troops. We are forced to keep our reserves at a long distance. We can't decision them fast. As shortly as we decision larger groups of troops, they get immediately under fire. True, this applies to both parties. We do the same thing to the place of their concentration. This is why this positional paralysis has occurred, in which there are expected to be many movements, but nevertheless moving forward takes place at a point in a turtle's pace.
Ruslan Puchov
For many experts in the West, this was a surprise: how do you think this tremendous possible and capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex came about compared to the Western one? Many people, including Polish experts, already at the beginning of the war claimed that Russia was actually deprived of its capacity. Turns out it's not.
– You know, paradoxically, not only have we saved our production capacity, which we have created as part of an ambitious refit plan, but besides that we are the heirs of the russian Union. Russia had immense supplies that it could throw into battle, despite the gigantic sale of weapons from us and from Ukraine conducted around the planet in 1990s and 2000, and its mass disposal, in which, for example, air bombs were simply sunk in the sea. In this sense, I believe it must look frightening to Ukrainians who see that no substance how many Russian tanks they destroy, Russian manufacture and Russian weapons depots will deliver them twice as many to the front. It's a small like the dragon teeth situation. You can knock out more, and they'll grow new. In a word, it turned out that Russia was able to have adequate weapons to wage specified an intense war. Yes, it wasn't always a fresh weapon, not always modern. Many of this equipment was already outdated and vague. Russia had to trust on import, but this import is inactive a drop in the sea. In fact, Russia fights with its own weapons, with its supplies, which it held from the times of the russian Union.
And how do you measure the possible of the Ukrainian military-industrial complex? Has it been destroyed yet or not?
– It works on 3 different runs. It is rather apparent that the dense equipment which Ukraine has been producing on the basis of russian infrastructure, specified as tanks in Kharkiv or aircraft in the Kiev Antonov plant, will never be able to produce again. At the same time, another types of production were developed there. The drones utilized by photographers at weddings are now being adapted for military purposes and pose a deadly threat not only to soldiers but besides to civilians. We have fundamentally full danger zones from 35 km from the front line (in the case of drones without a radio signal amplifier) to 60 km (in the case of drones with amplifiers). No 1 in this radius can feel safe. This applies to both the Russian and Ukrainian sides. All of this is not the effect of the HIMARS, the cannon-haubic CAESAR or the Crabs, but the drones that were produced for civilian alternatively than military purposes. In general, the biggest feature of this war is the existence of many equipment that were initially not intended for military purposes, but were later adapted to them.
So, in real danger, erstwhile you can't afford any long-term military budget projects, but you gotta do something rapidly to save your life, people on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides are going through things that were hard to imagine until recently. Therefore, erstwhile I hear declarations that any Lithuanians are planning to send military instructors to Ukraine to teach Ukrainians to carry out military activities, I think that these Lithuanians are like children compared to Ukrainians and Russians, like Poles or French. 3 years gave them large experience. I am not amazed that the leader of North Korea has sent his soldiers to Russia. I believe that their main task was not to support the Russians, as they were presented to us, but to teach their troops to wage a modern war they had not experienced. And they learned that. They gained invaluable experience, of course at the cost of the lives of their own people and the failure of equipment. They now have something missing from the South Korean Army, and at least for a while it will be missing.
In your survey center's book, we will find a full chapter on mobilization. How do you measure the current mobilisation potential? Is it over? I mean Ukraine, of course.
– A large part of Ukrainians are already taking part in the war, but – as you know – until late Zelenski and his surroundings were afraid to take for youth. First of all, due to the fact that young people are always more mobile and can take to the streets. An older, 80-year-old parent most likely won't be out on the streets defending her 50-year-old son, whom they took to war with her. But if specified a parent is 35, 40 or 45, she will surely stand up for her child. And what would they do if 30,000 mothers gathered in downtown Kiev? Shoot them with a dense device weapon in camera light? So the Ukrainians are desperately short of men. Hence, we have this peculiar program, where young people are promised a place at the university, game consoles and access to Netflix if they volunteer to join the army at the age of 18 to 24. I don't know how effective this program is.
Ukrainian piarists print very convincing photographs. However, I do not know how many people can be recruited without resorting to forced mobilisation. most likely not much. Clearly, then, the Ukrainians have shortcomings and will gotta scope for unpopular resources, or they will not be adequate people. And as in all war and all armed action, we have a certain number of people who are formally fighting, but in fact they're in the back, protecting weapons depots or doing something else. By deciding on unpopular actions, there are most likely inactive any people from the back. Usually, however, people who are expected to be in war, but actually hiding in any warehouse, are not there by accident. They're people who have connections or money to pay off. Bringing them to the front line and forcing them to fight would be highly difficult. It was akin with mercenaries who shared in those motivated and willing to kill Russians and war tourists. The others were coming, but erstwhile they had to go to the front, he abruptly started to hurt their backs, they got hemorrhoids, and they asked for a transfer to another unit. Ukrainians have been tormented with specified people. So, I believe that the Ukrainians have more and more equipment, but less and less people to serve. We besides hear about the fact that, for example, technicians operating MiG-29 or Su-27 aircraft, another method specialists, are being transferred to combat units.
Let's decision on to the projections. I know it's a very hard thing today, but by taking distant from the political context, which is the negotiations that are presently underway, I wanted to start by asking you about Donbas. How long do you think the Russian armed forces will request to liberate the reinforced area, possibly the last in this region – on the Kramatorsk-Sławansk line?
– It's a large agglomeration, and fighting in the city, defence fighting is much easier than in the open. That's why it could take quite a few time at our pace. Of course, much more people and more equipment will besides be needed to carry out liberation or take over this territory. Meanwhile, our authorities besides avoid unpopular decisions. I'll say more: I sometimes feel like we have about 5% of the population fighting here. Another 5% has a connection to this war, helps rise humanitarian support, transfers money. 90% of people live a completely peaceful life, dance and sing. It's not from their bad will. The state is doing it consciously. He seems to say: we can handle this ourselves, comrades, don't be nervous. If we were to turn on the turbojet mode that was switched on from the very beginning in Kiev, then present Russia... Russia would have taken Odessa and Nikolayev and I don't know what else. Ukraine is simply a large country where there are besides many large cities. We see that the Ukrainians have shown the will to fight. However, we can besides see that the authorities in Kiev only a fewer months ago thought that there were beautiful good prospects ahead of them, that Russia is getting harder and harder, that aid would flow to them forever. That's why they wanted to give the war another chance. Now we would like to hope that they would give specified a chance to peace.
What if shortly peace or truce will not come?
– If not, everything could last as long as the Iranian-Iracan War, 5 years. Even with the current human and economical losses, Russia and Ukraine can inactive afford a reasonably long fight. The problem is that Russia will recover after this war, although it will endure crucial human and economical losses. In my opinion, the longer this war will continue, the more likely Ukraine will turn into specified an Eurasian Somalia. It will so be a large territory with a tiny population. Area of full destruction. Western and east investors will surely appear in Russia after this war. And who decides to build a laundry powder mill or sunflower oil mill in this ruined country? And most importantly, who will work in these factories? Who's gonna buy that laundry powder and that oil later? Oil can be imported from Moldova and laundry powder imported from east regions of Poland. The most crucial problem for Ukraine is so what will be next. How to stand up, how to rebuild a country. Even if Russian reserves are confiscated, it will be a drop in the sea. You can't rebuild a country for that. I don't think quite a few people who left here will always come back. This peculiarly applies to children and women of childbearing potential. After all, it is much more interesting to live in Italy or Poland than in Ukraine ruined by the war.
In Poland, we are frequently intimidated by the alleged Russian threat and thus justify the expanding expenditure on arms. I would like to ask you as a military expert: how much theoretically is Russia ready for armed aggression and offensive actions in Poland?
– At the very beginning of peculiar Military Operations we saw a full series of hostile actions from Poland towards the Kaliningrad region. These actions were definitely halted by the American administration, which prohibited Poles from provoking Russians and transforming regional conflict into planet War III. There is no ministry of war in any country in the world. There's only defence ministries everywhere. And yet wars happen. Therefore, armed clashes between Russia and Poland cannot be completely excluded. They are possible. The good news for Poland is that the Polish economy is rather healthy. Unlike a number of countries with zero economical growth or economical decline, which have brought together millions of unemployed immigrants, you can afford to spend up to a certain point on these arms spending in specified a way that they will not affect the construction of fresh schools, roads or teachers' salaries. Poland is so in a privileged position in a good sense in the context of many European countries. It's a large country. You didn't get hurt besides bad about COVID. You've been through the coronavirus pandemic beautiful well. You have sustainable economical growth. Subsequent governments, within 20 years after Jaruzelski voluntarily gave up power, were smart adequate not to spend money on the military. Your expenses were very small. You only started expanding them 15 years ago. Therefore, in general it must be admitted that Polish defence policy is rather reasonable. Especially since you have historical experience. After all, for 123 years you were deprived of independency not without Russia's participation. Statehood has stripped you of the Russian Empire. Therefore, your historical memory is much different from that of the French or the British. Therefore, erstwhile I hear your politicians declare that they are afraid of the Russian threat, I believe it much more than erstwhile the French president or Prime Minister of large Britain calls it, thus distracting voters from actual problems of their own. You can afford this luxury for now. Congratulations.
Personally, I would like the peaceful coexistence of our countries. virtually the last question – again about a certain forecast. A somewhat more political question. How much do you think Russia is prepared to accept a ceasefire? How vivid are the fears that specified a truce can turn into a 3rd Minsk agreement?
– It's very hard to foretell here. I can say 1 thing. We have had 3 years of bloody war, large losses in all the meanings of the word for a large part of the population and for the political class. Therefore, it is impossible to hope that the war will be stopped with a snap of the finger. It must be stopped gradually. For example, first halt attacks on energy infrastructure. After that, halt hitting the sea so that the Black Sea does not lose its shipping, as well as neighbouring countries, which proceed to fish mines at their homes, etc. Then you can go to any limitations on land along with method control measures. The process of stopping fire may take respective months. Or possibly even a twelve – not 2 months, but more than 11 months or 12 months. The most crucial thing is to decision forward and to reconstruct trust. I personally realize why it's so hard to halt all this. A lot will besides depend, of course, on the American position. From the point of view of common sense, it's completely incomprehensible why all this is for Donald Trump. Excuse me, Mr. Blacks, although whites, somewhere in Eurasia, are killing each other. What do you care about Americans? I'm very surprised. I realize why Donald Trump wants to hold off armed action in the mediate East and corner Iran. But why do Americans interfere here, risking their own image? It is rather possible that at any point they will get tired of it, turn their backs like in Afghanistan, and halt providing any good services that they are now undertaking. I don't realize Trump's logic personally and his administration. Why would they aid to end this war? The Americans have no peculiar interest in this. I don't truly know what the future can bring. So far, everything seemed more or little understandable. Now there are any fresh elements.
They say Trump is unpredictable.
– Looks like it.
Ruslan Puchov – Russian expert and military analyst, founder and manager of the Centre for strategical investigation and Technology, associate of the Expert Council of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation.
Matthew Piskorski spoke
photo by RIA Novosti
Think Poland, No. 15-16 (13-20.03.2025)
