According to an exit poll conducted by Ipsos for Polish Television, the winner of the 2nd circular of presidential elections in Poland was Rafał Trzaskowski. It received support at the level50.3%, while his rival Karol Nawrocki scored49.7%. The difference is only 0.6 percent points, which means 1 of the most leveled electoral clashes in the past of the 3rd Republic.
Exit poll: Trzaskowski precedes Nawrocki by 0.6 percent points.
Exit poll survey, performed by the renowned Ipsos studio on request Polish Television, based on the responses of citizens leaving polling stations. It is simply a statistical tool that allows with large probability to estimation the election consequence even before the authoritative vote number by National Election Commission (PCP).
According to the data:
- Rafał Trzaskowski (Citizen Coalition candidate) — 50.3%
- Karol Nawrocki (independent candidate, supported by conservative environments) — 49.7%
This means that the difference between candidates is simply 0,6 percent points, i.e. theoretically it may inactive change erstwhile the PCW publishes authoritative results.
Final score only in the morning
Although exit polls are usually accurate to 1 percent point, with specified a tiny difference You can't decide on the final triumph of any candidate. According to PKW, authoritative results will be announced Most likely Monday morning, following the calculation of votes from all constituency, including abroad and correspondence votes.
High attendance in the second round
It is worth noting that the second circular of the 2025 presidential election attracted very advanced attendance, as experts already mention to as a "citizen's rabble". Although the PCW has not yet provided full data, preliminary estimates indicate that the level is exceeded 70% attendancewhich may be 1 of the highest results in the past of the Polish presidential election.
Such a mobilisation of society suggests that the election rate was highly advanced for many citizens. The fight between 2 candidates – representing various visions of the future of Poland – has mobilised both urban and agrarian electorates, younger and older generations.
Political context: 2 visions of Poland
Rafał Trzaskowski, president of Warsaw and experienced European politician, one more time stood up for the highest office in the state, after defeat in 2020 with Andrzej Duda. His run in 2025 focused on Democratisation of institutions, investments in green energy and regulation of law reforms.
In turn, Karol Nawrocki, president of the Institute of National Memory and historian, entered the run as a non-partisan candidate, but powerfully supported by patriotic-conservative environments. His message was based on defending conventional values, national safety and historical identity of Poland.
So clearly outlined the thought that the run was intensive and highly polarised, but at the same time it has mobilised a large part of society to participate in the elections.
Possible scenarios after announcement of results
If the results of exit poll are confirmed, Rafał Trzaskowski will presume the office of president for a five-year word and his triumph will be seen as changing the political direction of the country after 2 terms of president Andrzej Duda.
Where PKW will announce another consequence – e.g. in favour of Karol Nawrocki – electoral protests and controversy are possible, especially in light of the tiny difference in vote. In the past of Poland, there has not yet been specified a close consequence in the presidential election, which makes all single voice meaningful.
What's next?
From the point of view of citizens and institutions, the next fewer hours will be crucial. The authoritative results of PKW will find who will lead the state between 2025 and 2030. Due to the strained atmosphere and possible social reactions, services and media are on advanced alert.
Regardless of the final outcome, 1 thing is certain: civilian society has shown strength and maturity, crowding out the ballot boxes.
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Presidential election 2025 results: Trzaskowski 50.3%, Nawrocki 49.7%
