Sunday 1 June 2025 will be past as the day on which Poles decided on their president for the next 5 years. Second circular of alleged presidential elections between Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki is characterised by a importantly advanced election turnout, which in most cities and municipalities exceeds the results of the first circular of voting.
Data coming from all over the country indicate Increasing civilian engagement at the decisive minute of the election. The state at 12:00 shows that Polish voters are more active than 2 weeks ago, which may be crucial for the final result of the vote.
The voting process started on time 7:00 a.m. in all polling stations in Poland. Already the first hours indicated the advanced interest of voters, as confirmed by data from subsequent cities and municipalities.
Record attendance results in Polish cities
Analysis of data from different regions of Poland shows consistent increase in attendance compared to the first circular of elections. The highest results were recorded in average and large urban centres.
Pabians set an absolute evidence in the past of their participation in the elections – attendance at 12:00 was 28.72%Mr Dariusz Joński, as stressed by the Euro MP KO, is the highest consequence in the past of the participation of the inhabitants of the city in all elections.
Szczecin besides recorded evidence score – 26.85% attendance by 12:00, which exceeds the 2020 consequence (26.45%) and the 2023 parliamentary election (25.03%).
These reported a crucial increase in attendance from 21.90% in I circular to 27.17% in II round, which means an increase of over 5 percent points.
Opole besides showed higher electoral activity – 25.70% attendancewhich is better than in the October 2023 parliamentary elections and higher than the first circular (18.54%).
Comparative analysis of attendance in key centres
Data from the largest Polish cities indicate systematic increase in voter involvement:
Warsaw (data from selected districts):
- Ursins-Stocks: over 29% (an increase of about 5% compared to I turn)
- Saska Kępa: 28.5% (I turn: 23.8%)
- Tarchomin: observed “very advanced traffic” at polling stations
Gdansk: 20.09% (Itura: 16.93%), for comparison in 2020 was 21.37%
Kielce: approximately 27% (I turn: 20.38%)
Steel Wola: 26.3% (Itura: 21.69%, IItura 2020: 24.73%)
Wrocław: “Better weather and greater attendance” has been reported
Bydgoszcz (Commission No 142): 27.1% (I turn: 24.57%)
Electoral activity in smaller centres
The increase in attendance is not limited to large cities. Smaller municipalities and cities besides show a crucial increase in electoral activity:
Trichinella: 25.43% (I turn: 20.83%) Sand: 28.16% (I turn: 22.84%) Stallion: 26.20% (I turn: 20.84%) Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski: 25.99% (I turn: 20.41%) Woodpecker: 23.43% (I turn: 19.19%) Deer Mountain: 24.95% (I turn: 18.64%) Whale: 22.93% (I turn: 18.68%) Kołbaskowo: 23.97% (I turn: 19.95%)
This data indicates The general nature of expanding electoral engagement, which includes both large agglomerations and smaller local communities.
Voting of Polonia abroad
It's peculiarly interesting. activity of voters abroad. Polonia shows evidence interest in the second circular of presidential elections.
Belgium: To vote registered over 23 000 people, which means an increase of about 5 1000 comparative to the first round. By comparison, in the parliamentary election of 2023 it was about 21,000 people, and in the 2nd circular of the 2020 presidential election about 11,000 people voted.
Egypt: 3 electoral committees (Kair, Hurghada, Sharm el-Sheikh) registered over 1.6 1000 peoplewhat constitutes more than double increase comparative to the first round.
The vote is moving smoothly, and as the typical of the Polish diplomatic mission in Cairo informs, the process takes place “without hindrance”.
Election procedures and organisational issues
State Election Commission under the leadership of justice fresh Year's Day Marciniak matters relating to voting certificates. There have been cases erstwhile voters have tried to vote on certificates issued for the first round, which is impossible – 1 can only vote on certificates for the second round.
In addition, Election Control Movement Associated with the Law and Justice, he introduced a peculiar application to verify certificates at polling stations to check that they are not utilized repeatedly. Election Commissioner from Gdańsk justice Julia Kuciel it has, however, issued guidelines not to verify electoral certificates and to study attempts to the territory Electoral Commission.
Factors affecting advanced attendance
Analysis of available data suggests respective key factors affecting the increase in attendance:
Weather conditions: Many observers pay attention to “nice weather”, which encourages voters to leave their homes. As the resident of Warsaw Tarchomin reports: “Nice weather, most likely everyone takes kids and goes for a walk to vote.”
Characteristics of the second round: A choice between 2 candidates can mobilise voters more than a broad list of candidates in the first round.
Political atmosphere: advanced polarisation and media engagement in the election run translates into greater electorate mobilisation.
Awareness of the importance of the decision: The voters are aware that they are making decisions about the president for the next 5 years, which may motivate more activity.
Comparison with erstwhile elections
Data from different cities let comparison with erstwhile selections:
Due to the 2020 presidential election:
- Szczecin: growth from 26.45% to 26.85%
- Steel Will: growth from 24.73% to 26.3%
- Gdansk: decrease from 21.37% to 20.09%
Due to parliamentary elections 2023:
- Opole: attendance higher than 15 October 2023
- Szczecin: growth from 25.03% to 26.85%
With respect to the first circular 2025: Practically all analysed cities and municipalities noted increased attendance from 3 to 8 percent points.
The importance of advanced turnout for election results
High election attendance has crucial for democratic legitimacy The future president. The more citizens take part in the vote, the stronger the mandate will be given to the election winner.
Mobilisation of different electoral groups may be decisive for the final outcome. The past of Polish elections shows that differences in attendance between different demographic and regional groups frequently find the result of the vote.
Record Polonia activity may be peculiarly important, given that abroad votes have frequently influenced the final results of the elections in Poland.
Perspectives and conclusions
Data from the first hours of voting in the second circular of the 2025 presidential election indicate a crucial boost to active citizenship. The increase in attendance in practically all analysed centres suggests that Poles respect this choice as peculiarly important.
Consistence of increased attendance In different regions of the country, from large cities to tiny municipalities, it points to the nationwide nature of this phenomenon, which can show advanced social mobilisation regardless of local circumstances.
Record activity of voters abroad confirms Polonia's engagement in matters of homeland and may have a tangible impact on the final result of the elections.
Final attendance will be known only after the closing of polling stations o 9:00 p.m., however, the current figures indicate that the second circular of the 2025 presidential election can be remembered as 1 of the most mobilizing elections in the fresh past of Poland.
You'll be the most crucial after the alleged election! What awaits Poles
Today's second circular of alleged presidential elections can lead Poland into a serious constitutional crisis. Pursuant to Article 129(1) of the Constitution of Poland, the validity of the election of the president of the Republic states the ultimate Court. Currently, this work is fulfilled by the Chamber of Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs of the ultimate Court. However, in the light of the case law of the Court of Justice of the European Union (TEU) and the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), serious doubts arise as to the legality and independency of this House.
Doubts as to the legality of the Extraordinary Control Chamber
In its judgement of 19 November 2019 in Joined Cases C-585/18, C-624/18 and C-625/18, The CJEU pointed out that the way in which judges were appointed to the recently created ultimate Court chambers, including the Disciplinary Chamber, could violate the rule of the independency of courts. The Court stressed that the engagement of the National Judicial Council (NRA) in this process raises doubts as to its independency from the legislative and executive authority. Although the ruling afraid the Disciplinary Chamber, his thesis besides applied to the Extraordinary Control Chamber, whose judges were appointed in a akin way.
A akin position was taken by the ECHR in the judgement of 22 July 2021 in Reczkowicz v Poland (complaint No 43447/19), stating that the Disciplinary Board is not a court established by law within the meaning of Article 6(1) of the European Convention on Human Rights. The Court pointed to serious irregularities in the appointment of judges to this House, which violates the right to a fair trial. In the context of the ETPC nomination process, it confirmed that the KRS does not supply adequate guarantees of independency from the legislative and executive authority. erstwhile assessing irregularities in the establishment and casting of the Disciplinary Board, the ECHR decided that they would undermine the legitimacy of the home in a way that deprives it of the attributes of the court. The ECHR conclusions may besides be translated into the SN Extraordinary Control and Public Affairs Chamber and another judges appointed in the 2018 procedure(Right)
Constitutional consequences of the failure to find the validity of elections
Pursuant to Article 130 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland, the president shall take office after oath to the National Assembly. However, this oath may be made only after the ultimate Court has established the validity of the choice. If this decision is given by a body whose legality is contested, this may lead to a situation where the fresh President's appointment is considered illegal.
Such a situation could lead to serious constitutional chaos and destabilisation of state bodies. In utmost cases, it can be utilized by policy makers to introduce extraordinary constitutional measures specified as emergency or even martial law (based on Articles 229 to 234 of the Constitution of the Republic of Poland), which poses a serious hazard to the legal order and democratic strategy of the state.
The request to improvement and reconstruct the regulation of law
In order to avoid specified a scenario, it is essential to take measures to reconstruct the independency of the judiciary in Poland. In particular, it should be ensured that the authorities liable for validating the elections are independent and legally established. Only in this way can it be guaranteed that the presidential elections will be held in a legal and constitutional manner, and their result will be widely accepted.
The threat material was created on the basis of a legal analysis prepared by Lega Artis, which reserves all copyrights for this publication.
Read more:
Presidential Election 2025: evidence attendance in the second circular – Poles go to the polls
