In the 2025 presidential election in Poland, the second circular is coming, which will be held on 1 June. After the first round, held on May 18, 2 candidates, Rafał Trzaskowski and Karol Nawrocki, advanced to the next stage. In this phase, both artificial intelligence and bookmakers are trying to foretell the result of this clash.
According to analyses conducted by various AI models, including ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, Perplexity and Grok, Rafał Trzaskowski is considered a likely winner of the second round. These models took into account various factors, specified as the results of the first round, the support of the electorates of another candidates and the projected election turnout. In the first round, the difference between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki was only 1.82 percent points, making the second circular highly even.
Legal bookmakers in Poland besides offer bets on the result of the election. As of May 30, the odds for the triumph of Rafał Trzaskowski are somewhat lower than those of Karol Nawrocki, which suggests that the bookmakers consider Trzaskowski to be a insignificant favourite. For example, in STS, the course for Trzaskowski is PLN 1.90, while at Nawrockie PLN 1.80. In another companies, specified as Fuksiar and LVbet, courses besides indicate a minimum advantage for Trzaskowski.
Predictive markets specified as Polymarket are becoming popular as an alternate to conventional polls. At Polymarket, participants bet the election result, which may reflect more active predictions. Currently, on this platform, Rafał Trzaskowski is simply a favourite to win in the second round.
On Friday morning, the day before the beginning of the election silence, the National investigation Group published the latest poll for Virtual Poland, indicating the minimum advantage of Karol Nawrocki. In a survey conducted among strong voters, Nawrocki gained 50.63 percent support, while Rafał Trzaskowski – 49.37 percent, meaning a difference of 1.26 percent points, or about 260 1000 votes. Nawrocki gaines clearly among younger voters and men, while Trzaskowski leads among women and older age groups.
These results show that the election consequence is inactive open and the final hours before the vote may be decisive. According to the Polish economical Institute, the election attendance in the first circular amounted to 54.4%, which means that about 18.5 million people took part in the vote. In the second round, attendance may be even higher, which may affect the result of the election.
The 2025 presidential election is 1 of the most crucial political events in Poland in 2025. The consequence of these elections will have a crucial impact on Poland's policy and economy in the coming years. Therefore, both bookmakers and AI models effort to foretell the result of these choices to aid voters make decisions.
Read more:
Presidential Election 2025: Analysis of the Chance of Victory
