The war will continue

In the era of actual professional diplomacy, (the pre-century “antisocial media”), which was fundamentally an art performed by comprehensively educated diplomats, supported their analytical and technological centres, at universities. On the western side were specialities from the USSR – “Sovetologists” or from China “sinologists”.

The analytical centres, working there specialists and scientists employed in universities were experts of history, culture, customs and current realities of these countries. They were a base of advisors protecting professional diplomatic contacts with Russia or China. At that time supporting the hard dialog of the then atomic powers, with a circumstantial culture, past and political strategy rather far from liberal democracy.

On the another side of the barricade, to this day, there are outstanding specialists, analytic centres of alleged Americans, supporting Russian or Chinese diplomacy in relations with the US or Chinese. present specified people – specialists of sowietologists writing boldly in the Polish media space with a candle to look for. So based on my humble knowledge, in the aspect of Russia and its realities, I will play sovetologist by writing an analysis like a decade ago, erstwhile I published constantly on the pages of the no longer existing "Diary of Tribune". I will present an explanation of events in Russia over the last 2 days.

It was in the last 48 hours that we have accumulated a circumstantial "dialogue" between the 2 atomic superpowers, the United States and the Russian Federation, on the key issue of war and peace, and the wars in Ukraine in particular. However, context is important. Following the hope-giving consensus gathering between Trump and Putin in Alaska, the waiting period for Russia to accept the US President's plan continued. all week, however, it was evident that the Russians were not ready to end the war, on Trump terms.

However, in order to ‘motivate’ the Russians, first of all, in September we witnessed an unprecedented drone-missile offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with intelligence and U.S. hardware support aimed at the Russian industry. According to authoritative Ukrainian statistics, in September 2025 there were 40 Ukrainian drone attacks “kamikaze” on various infrastructure facilities in the back of Russia, including 27 oil and gas infrastructure facilities (refineries, gas processing plants, oil retention facilities, line dispatchers) 3 railway infrastructure facilities, 3 companies related to the military-industrial complex and 3 for warehouses and ports, and 3 military facilities. As a consequence of these consistent operations, a fuel crisis has been created in Russia, which continues to spread.

Secondly, in a series of statements late by the president of the United States, including during a gathering with the Prime Minister of Canada, he publically expressed his deep disappointment at the Russian president Vladimir Putin's attitude about the end of the war in Ukraine and made it clear that he would most likely agree to hand over the 2,500 km BGM-Tomahowk types to Ukraine. These were clear, clear signals that the waiting time for Russian decisions had passed and appear on the negotiating table "force arguments". The demolition of the fuel manufacture and fresh air raid tools for the Ukrainian army.

Kremlin reaction

Also in the interior strategy in Russia, in the face of the fuel crisis, the powerlessness of the Russian OPL, which is incapable to shield key plants including fuel, and the deficiency of spectacular and expected successes on the front, which shortly as all year during the autumn razputica period, was expected to stand president Putin. "There will be a dagavorniak with fallen partners, whether there will be," as if Russian milbloggers. The occasion was yesterday, on which president Vladimir Putin celebrated his 73rd birthday. And here we gotta dig not only into the verbal message, but besides the symbolism that Russian media has served us in the same Kremlin media department.

Russia is simply a circumstantial country and any symbols, sometimes they mean more than words, and the President's coverage in the media serves a certain interior and external message. Unfortunately, in the face of the fall of the art of diplomacy in us and in the West, especially in the expert layer, which is clearly readable, for people dealing with abroad policy, and whose pesel allows to scope memory until the year 2000, these second signals are frequently not read.

But, first things first. First before noon president Putin invited General Staff Chief Walery Gierasimov, along with Deputy Minister of Defence of Russia Andrei Belousov, Chief of Security, or national safety Service Aleksandra Bortnikova and leaders of fronts (groups) fighting in Ukraine for the service (see photo).

A peculiar and not accidental place – Pietropawłowski fortress in St. Petersburg. Anyone who was in St. Petersburg/Leningrad most likely associate the Council of Pietropawłowski and the golden highest "spin". The building, visible from a distance, is 122 metres, and the slender golden spike will be crowned by an angel holding the cross. This temple has been a burial site for the Russian Tsars since Peter I. Like our Wawel Cathedral. The camera records respective sentences by Putin, who informs the generals: “I decided to start our gathering here due to the fact that it is the resting place of the people who actually built modern Russia. I think that you besides find it pleasant and interesting." Then everyone goes to the next area for a gathering and then invites them to dinner.

The Kremlin press service besides publishes a image of president Putin putting a bunch of flowers on the sarcophagus, not accidental, due to the fact that the 1 in which the founder of the Russian empire and modern Russia rests, the winner of the North War, which lasted between 1700 and 1721, Tsar Peter I Romanov.

We so have a mass of symbols referring to the fight against the West, the Russian empire and the successes of building modern Russia as a planet power. A gathering was then held, from which a study of the Chief of General Staff was published in the media General Walery Gierasimov, in which he reported that the strategical initiative on all sections of the front belonged to the Russian Army, Ukrainians are retreating everywhere and discussed the situation of individual groupings in detail.

So the Russian explanation is good and we win on the front.

Putin himself was besides published on this conference, whose main thesis is unambiguous:

* "The decisions made in February 2022 were right and correct".

* "All objectives of the operation will be achieved".

* “The Ukrainian Armed Forces are retreating throughout the front line. This year almost 5,000 square kilometres of territory was released.” Putin thanked Russian Armed Forces personnel for their courage and heroism and instructed Generals to hand it over to the soldiers.”

Putin stressed the function of the defence manufacture in ensuring the success of the army. He then stated that "Kiys, wishing to show to their western patrons even a small success, attack civilian targets in Russia" and ordered to safe all infrastructure, including energy.

The photograph from the meeting, besides so not accidentally included, that we have president Putin, generals and on the wall a large image of the founder of St. Petersburg, the creator of the Russian Empire – Tsar Peter I.

The Russian nation received a clear signal, broadcast by media propaganda: we win, the military is protected by industry, and the “car Putin” issued an order to defend infrastructure facilities. Ukrainian successes are not successes, due to the fact that it is for show. The Kremlin besides made available a photograph from a solemn name dinner, which is interesting in the company of the Generals of the Groups, the Chief of the General Staff, his deputy, there is no 1 another than 1 “from the Kremlin’s castle” – Aleksander Bortnikov, Head of the FSB and a uncommon guest in this group of Admiral Pinchuk Commander of the Black Sea Fleet.

So we have an elaborate assessment of the situation that the Kremlin has, and as you can see, there is presently no area for negotiation with the collective west. The Russians (Kreml), clearly believe that they will accomplish their goals by military means, last the Tomahawk attacks and shield their oil industry.

He completed the image present and put the "dot over i", Deputy abroad Minister of Russia Riabkov, who stated in his speech to the media: "The momentum generated by the Alaska Summit to resolve the conflict in Ukraine was mostly exhausted due to European actions". Sergei Riabkov called on the United States to take a prudent approach to handing over Tomahawk missiles to Kiev: "This would importantly improve the situation (Ukrainians), but would not prevent Russia from achieving the objectives of a peculiar military operation". Riabkov said to the camera that “Tomahawk missiles are only possible with American personnel”

In addition, I noted that Riabkov reported that contacts with the US on prisoner exchange be that Russia would introduce restrictions on diplomatic travel from hostile countries, which would decide to limit the movement of Russian diplomats in the Schengen area. Furthermore, he added that there was no question of extending the fresh START Treaty. In fact, Riabkov stated that "Russia has reached out to the US on fresh START, but if the United States is not interested, then we can do without it."

To sum up, as individual hoped that the Alaska gathering would be a turning point and would let this unnecessary, unfortunate war to end for our east borders, and although it would frost the progressive deterioration of relations between Russia and the United States, or atomic powers, it seems that present we are back at square one.

Neither the Ukrainian massive, effective attacks on Russia's oil infrastructure, nor the real threat of handing over dangerous long-range missiles to Tomahawk to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, influenced the Russian post. Moscow, in my subjective assessment, has clearly made it clear that it is determined to proceed the war in Ukraine and prosecute its goals, even at the price of further escalation and deterioration of relations with the United States.

Krzysztof Podgórski

photo of cremlin.ru