Donald Trump put the authorities in Kiev ultimatum that by 27 November 2025 they had to accept or reject the peace plan he proposed. Unfortunately, the publication cycle NCZ! causes that I gotta compose this text on the morning of November 27, without knowing the answer of Volodymir Żeleński. Should Kiev plan a coffin peace plan accept?
Media reports that the leading group of American generals Dan Driscoll had a comparatively brief clear message for Ukrainians and their European allies: "You are losing and you must come to an agreement." For many Polish and European readers, this can be a shocking message, as there is an alternate reality in liberal media, where many pseudo-experts guarantee that Ukraine is firmly adhered to, inactive has local success, the Russian army is useless, the economy is falling apart, and Putin is not only dead 5 or six times, but besides suffers from Parkinson's and hemorrhoids. However, everyone who is curious in the course of this war, and especially uses foreign-language media, knows that the situation is different. Ukraine does not deficiency the money and equipment supplied from the West, possibly outside aviation, whose role, however, fell heavy due to the mass usage of rocket systems. More, Ukraine has even announced that the surplus of the weapons supplied is going to sale abroad. The authorities in Kiev besides deficiency no money, and their “surplus” are efficiently distributed by Timur Mindych and another Żeleński friends fleeing to Israel and another places in front of the local CBA, under American control. What Ukraine lacks dramatically are people. It is estimated that the Ukrainian army, as a consequence of losses and expanding numbers of desertions, is shrinking in numbers, as the refugees who have been taken from trams and streets are giving way to the number of losses. Meanwhile, Russia most likely recruits more people regularly than it loses on the battlefield.
Why is this happening? Ukraine fights almost exclusively soldiers from the collection, with about 25 million people surviving under the control of the government in Kiev. These are not large demographic reserves. Worse still, much of the men have already died or been eliminated from the battlefield due to wounds and captivity. Even more have fled the country and scattered all over the planet or are hiding from conscription, possibly arrest and trial for desertion. The wealthy buy themselves out of the army rather massively. The draft was reportedly almost not to have taken over a fewer million-dollar Kiev, as power fears Majdan 2.0. The component of young and rebellious Żeleński late released himself, beginning boundaries to the youngest Ukrainians. simply put, there's no 1 left to fight. Meanwhile, Russia has been fighting professional soldiers and abroad mercenaries since the beginning, as well as prisoners fighting in Wagner Group. Paying mercenaries allows her to export oil and natural gas, which were not stolen by the Russian Timur Mindichs. Only erstwhile and reluctantly Putin reached for the recruitment of 300,000 people, in the face of the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region, and these soldiers had long returned to civilians. Russia's own mobilisation reserves have so remained intact and are estimated at 2.5 to 2.8 million trained conscripts. In Russia, therefore, war is inactive denied “full-scale”. As it seems, the Russians under this word realize the war with full mobilisation of reservists.
The ongoing war has nothing to do with the maneuvering war. Anti-aircraft rocket systems have greatly limited the operational capabilities of aviation, and drones have been utilized to apply massive and disruptive armoured impacts. It is simply a war akin to planet War I, fought in trenches and to finish 1 of the sides that will 1 day break and fall apart from the inside. Generals and Russian politicians, after the failed Blitzkrieg on Kiev, decided that the war must, sooner or later, end with the triumph of Russia. Western politicians, on the another hand, persuaded the squad of Żeleński for a devastating war, convinced that the Russian economy would cave under sanctions and after six months Putin would ask for peace. Western-Ukrainian hopes did not come actual due to the fact that Russia – which nobody expected in the West – managed to last sanctions, changing the direction of trade from Europe to Asia.
We so conclude that time works in the benefit of Vladimir Putin. I think it is right for Driscroll to say that since you “lost”, “you must come to an agreement”. In April 2022, under the Istanbul Agreements, the war was to end at the price of surrendering Russia to Crimea and the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republic, i.e. the cost of recognising the failure of lands that Kiev had not actually controlled since 2014. After 2.5 years the price increased to the full circuits of Donetsk and Lugansk, as well as about half of the 2 circuits located north of Crimea. If peace is not concluded now, but in a year, it will be the full circuit, and possibly even, for a further time, the Kharkiv region and the city of Odessa. Kiev's most crucial asset in the negotiations was heroic opposition in 2022 and possible human and economical losses that this war of Russia would inflict. At a time erstwhile Kiev no longer has a place to get soldiers, and Russia has already suffered these losses, the negotiating position of Ukraine from period to period is weakening. In addition, all year the number of Ukrainians who have acclimatized on emigration and who will never return to their homeland. Hence the fresh thought of bringing “Africans” (in conventional language they were Negroes) after the end of the war to a deserted country.
Volodymir Żeleński resists due to the fact that he refuses to quit the land, to compose in the Constitution the neutrality of Ukraine and to limit the number of her army to 600 000 people (the second figure is for a exhausted economical and depopulated state and so will be abstraction). In fact, it defends its own power and supporting Camaryla, due to the fact that after the failure of the war in Kiev there will inevitably come a time of reckoning.
Adam Wielomski
