A large disappointment for Poles. Prices in stores jumped by 5.7% – inflation is simply a myth?

Poles in 2025 inactive face a paradox that powerfully hits home budgets. Although authoritative data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) indicate decrease in full inflation to 3.1% in July, retail prices do not follow this trend. According to the latest study "Index Cen in Retail Stores", developed by UCE investigation and the Universities of WSB Merito, the most frequently purchased products in July had to be paid on average 5.7% more than the erstwhile year. This is simply a painful blow to consumers who have hoped to see inflation decline. Experts agree: to rapidly reverse this trend there is nothing to number on. What is behind this discrepancy, and which product categories are the most devastating of our portfolios?

Why are prices inactive rising erstwhile inflation falls? Paradox of the Polish economy

The discrepancy between general inflation and real prices on store shelves is simply a phenomenon that is of reasonable concern. In July 2025, erstwhile inflation according to the CSO amounted to 3.1%, the prices in stores went up by 5.7% year-on-year. Dr Anna Motylska-Kuzma from the University of Lower Silesian DSW in Wrocław clearly indicates that "invariably since the beginning of 2025, both external and interior factors, there are no indications that could importantly reduce price dynamics". This applies especially to food, but besides to many another everyday items.

One key explanation of this phenomenon is the delayed reaction of the retail marketplace to macroeconomic changes. Dr Tomasz Kopysciński of the University of WSB Merito emphasizes that shops frequently update prices with any delay. Moreover, as noted by Dr. Piotr Arak, VeloBank's chief economist, retailers can intentionally keep higher margins in any categories to compensate for losses in another areas. The request for basic products, specified as food and beverages, is little price flexible, allowing for higher rates to be maintained even in the face of falling general inflation. Unfortunately, for the consumer this means 1 thing: price is inactive feltand the portfolio shrinks faster than the headlines of falling inflation suggest.

What's the quickest thing? Shocking growth in key categories

The study “Indeks Cen in Retail Stores” unmitigatedly indicates which products are the most charged to Polish budgets. In July 2025, as many as 16 of the 17 monitored categories recorded an increase in prices, and the leading price scope included:

• Fat articles: +14.2% year-on-year. He's the absolute leader of the raise. Butter cost 17.3% and oil cost 18.7%. Dr. Piotr Arak explains this with global shortages of natural materials, advanced cost of fertilizers and logistics, as well as import of a crucial part of vegetable oils.
• Drugs (coffee, tea, alcohol): +10.3% year-on-year. The strongest, due to the fact that by 18.3% and 16.8%, the coffee was ground and soluble. Marcin Luziński of Santander Bank Polska warns that climate warming has had a negative impact on coffee collections in Brazil, Vietnam and Colombia, with forecasts for 2050 forecasting twice the area of crops. This means that coffee prices will proceed to emergence over the long term.
• Fruit: +9.1% year-on-year. Despite the ongoing season, prices surprise. Dr. Anna Motylska-Kuzma points to advanced wage costs and a deficiency of hands to work at harvests as the main causes, although the weather favoured yields.
• Personal hygiene: +8.2% year-on-year. This is simply a fast reversal of the trend – in June this category was on the downside. Dr. Tomasz Kopysciński explains that this can indicate the completion of intensive promotions and expanding production costs, including chemical natural materials and packaging.
• Economic chemistry: +7.9% year-on-year. The 5th category with the highest growth, which besides reflects the expanding cost of production and transport.

Apart from top 5, sweets (+6.8% y.o., with chocolate at the head of evidence cocoa prices), meat (+6.7% y.o.), dairy (+6.1% y.o.) and bread (+5.8% y.o.). The only category that recorded a fall in prices in July was vegetables (-1.7% r.), which is linked to higher harvests than a year ago.

What's next with our wallet? Forecasts and outlook for the coming months

Although the current situation is not optimistic, experts are trying to foretell what awaits us in the following months of 2025. Marcin Luzinski of Santander Bank Polska forecasts that The growth rate of price growth may fall in the vicinity of 4% year to year at the end of the year. This will be supported by good forecasts for this year's national crops and by earlier shocks. Unfortunately, any products, specified as coffee or vegetable oil, will most likely proceed to cost due to global conditions.

Dr. Piotr Arak of VeloBanku, however, is getting besides optimistic, convincing that although stabilisation of dynamics may indicate the beginning of price pressure, "The full inhibition of inflation in stores is likely to take 9-12 months". This means that Poles must prepare for advanced prices to accompany us for a long time. Increases in labour and transport costs stay a crucial origin affecting retail prices, as Dr. Anna Motylska-Kuzma emphasizes.

This means that consumers request even more informed management of their home budget and price monitoring. In the face of a continuing costly situation, especially in terms of fatty products, stimulants or individual hygiene products, reasonable planning of purchases and seeking promotion becomes crucialto best meet inflation challenges in 2025.