It's hard to talk about Trump's actions without surviving in the US, but my eye from the outside (i.e. from Poland) looks like this.
1 Customs duties. respective texts have already appeared about Trump's method of calculating customs duties. Who wants to find it? Poland in all of this received a ricochet, due to the fact that if we were alone, how the country with a trade deficit would have a 0 rate. But that the full Union got 10%, we got 10%. Why did Russia get 0? Justification that trade with Russia has fallen due to sanctions makes sense, but annoys. due to the fact that it's so understated diplomatically...
The figures are that our exports to the USA are from $13 billion and so from 17 as a subcontracting e.g. for Germany, and Russia went to 3.5 billion in 2024. (Compare Poland - Russia. For specified a large economy - very weak).
2 Exchange, crisis, globalisation. The fact that globalisation has its pathologies has been said for many years. Since the pandemic, there has been further talk about the request for deglobalisation, safety of the supply chain, etc. So Trump came in and kicked globalisation into the craw. He kicked hard. Then shouldn't we be happy about it? And that America made the move, not the Union? This is our European problem, not the American one. This decision will greatly hurt China, which have permanent overproduction and overcapacity. This will further weaken Chinese home request and increase the creeping crisis. And commies do stupid things during a crisis. Always. What will they do now? hard to say. possibly their victim will be Tesla - the only maker in their area who has his own factory. (not shared with Chinese like the others)
That's what made the stock exchanges go down. But do you remember that over-money and, above all, debt in the planet has been mentioned for years? And that everyone was actually talking about a large crash in the "when and not when" category? Fortunately, our stock exchange is alternatively closely linked to tiny investors, and we will lose the least, but in the US, on a stock exchange outside billionaires, who lose in a visible and spectacular way besides lose pension funds and akin institutions. But it's hard to tell if average John from any gap in the U.S. will be very worried that any billionaire has lost a fewer zillion of his property that he can't handle. On the another hand, if the stock exchanges are down now, you should actually invest. But where do I get the money?
3 Russia and War. I utilized to compose that if there was peace in Ukraine, it would be Trump's room. Not Putin's room, Zelensky's room, Trump's room. Unfortunately, the weak point of this plan is that Putin is an ambitious lunatic. Unfortunately, in the current situation Putin's ambitions are further aligned with Russia's short-term interests. Russia simply doesn't pay to end the war. possibly a short-term ceasefire would. But ending the war (without starting another, or though intense preparation for the next) means a violent exit of the Russian economy. Therefore, I keep my first forecast that the war will definitely end erstwhile Putin dies, and the consequence will be a large sadness, possibly ending with another disintegration of Russia (this is the disengagement of successive republics and expanding independency of already independent countries)
In all of this, the question remains, does Trump know what he's doing? Whether there's a plan or if it's random crazy moves. Well. Trump does quite a few different things in a way diametrically different than what his predecessors utilized to do.
Except those solutions didn't work.
Will Trump's solutions work? I don't know. It's besides early to judge. If any part of it succeeds, then he will be judged a genius. But then. At this point, he's the most annoying president of the United States since I can remember...
