The armed clashes between Azerbaijan and separatist Armenian Artsah on September 19-20 accompanied demonstrations in Yerevan against Prime Minister Nikola Paszynian. The demonstrators demanded his resignation, accusing the head of the government of national treason, and postulated designation by the Republic of Armenia of the separatist Armenian Republic of Artsahu in the Republic of Azerbaijan. At the same time, the Armenian Ministry of Defence, referring to the demands of the Azerbaijani side to remove all Armenian formations from the mountainous Karabach, declared that Armenia's Armed Forces units were not present.
The demonstrations besides took place in front of the Embassy of the Russian Federation in the capital of Armenia, where protesters demanded Russian intervention, claiming that Azerbaijan is committing "genocide" in the Armenians. A spokesperson for the Russian MFA Maria Zacharova expressed concern about the escalation of the Armenian-Azerbejjan conflict, but this does not mean a deeper interest in Moscow. president Vladimir Putin already stated on September 12 that the Armenian-Azerbejjan conflict was regulated and that it was a decision of the current Armenian leadership, recognising the Mountain Karabach as an integral part of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Russia, while fulfilling its peace mission, according to the president of Russia, was to propose various options for the resolution of the conflict, but they were rejected by Erevan.
Between OUBZ and the USA
Désintéressement Moscow's critical situation of its erstwhile Caucasian protégé is caused by the pro-western policies of Erwania. On 6 September, the Ministry of Defence of Armenia announced that the joint Yankee-Armenian military exercises of Eagle Partner 2023 will take place on 11-20 September at the Zar Training Centre, which is part of the peacekeeping mission of the Armoured Forces Brigade of Armenia, where the parties will exchange experience in the field of “advance and tactical communication” and “stabilizing relations between the conflicted parties”.
These were the first military exercises involving US soldiers on Armenian soil. Prime Minister N. Pasynian besides refused to organize exercises led by Russia in January by the Organization of the Collective safety Agreement (OUBZ), whose founding associate is besides Armenia, in his country's territory, explaining this with fears of provoking Turkey and Azerbaijan. He besides requested an indication of the kind of assistance OUBZ could number on Armenia in the event of the war with Azerbaijan and, in specified a case, the area of work of the organization.
Armenia besides refused to participate in the Combat Brotherhood exercises held on 1-6 September, in which the forces of Russia, Belarus, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan participated. The wife of the Prime Minister of Armenia Anna Akopian went to Kiev at the time, where, together with the spouses of the leaders, among others, Turkey, Israel, UK, Spain and the Czech Republic, she took part in a summit of “dam and gentlemen” gathering wives and husbands of leaders of Western and allied countries.
Prime Minister N. Pasynian besides refused to take the position of Deputy Secretary-General of the ODB. Erevan besides refused to deploy the ODB reflection mission on the Armenian-Azerbeijan border. In January, N. Pasynian stated that close military relations with Russia posed a threat to the safety and territorial integrity of Armenia. In May, the head of the government of Armenia speculated on the anticipation of leaving Armenia from the OUBZ or the ‘freezing’ of membership of that organisation, which sparked the anger of the Russian MFA.
Distance from Russia
In an interview given to the Italian dean “La Repubblica” N. Pasynian accused Moscow of failing to fulfil its obligations to keep the road between Armenia and Artsah of the Latin Corridor and gradually withdrawing from the Caucasus: “Russian peacekeeping forces failed in their mission. Their presence in Mountain Karabach should guarantee the safety of the Armenian local population, including freedom of movement. This is not the case and, in fact, the connecting corridor is not under their control. possibly Russia cannot control the corridor or does not want to do so for many reasons that I do not want to comment on. Russia has been present in the South Caucasus for a long time, and throughout past there were moments erstwhile it abruptly moved away. Today, our Russian colleagues say that Western governments are pushing the government of Armenia to remove Moscow's influence from the South Caucasus. We see that Russia is spontaneously leaving the region and we do not know why. There are indications that we can get up 1 morning and announcement that Russia is no longer here.”
In the same statement, N. Pasynian, coming from the premise of Russia's alleged inability or reluctance to guarantee the safety of Armenia, stated that the "strategic error" is the 99.9% of the safety of Armenia from Moscow – especially in the area of arms and ammunition supplies that the Russian Federation itself needs today. Yerevan, according to the Armenian Prime Minister, should aim to diversify its policies in this area in order to guarantee its safety.
...and close-up with the U.S.
The words of the Armenian Prime Minister may consequence from the encouragement that Erwania had previously been sent from Washington: August 15, U.S. State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel said in the press briefing: "We call on Azerbaijanese authorities to guarantee the free movement of goods, humanitarian resources and private cars through the chaczynski corridor".
The close-up on the Yerevan-Washington line is not limited to verbal support of the second for food supply, medicines and ensuring communication with Artsah. Since the 2018 Spring Revolution, which removed from power in Armenia the "Karabaski clan" (presenting present on the Armenian political scene as the Republican Party) and brought N. Paszynian to it, Armenia has carried out US-compliant judicial and law reforms, signed on 2 May 2023. A memorandum of knowing concerning cooperation in the civilian usage of atomic energy, and in September Armenia was visited by a delegation of Yankee congressmen led by then president of the home of Representatives Nancy Pelosi. In 2022 Armenia besides signed an agreement on military cooperation with US allies India.
On the break-up threshold?
The degradation of Erevan-Moscow relations was completed by the announcement by the Prime Minister of Armenia of the September 11 fast parliamentary ratification of the Statute of the Rome global Criminal Court (ICC). The Russian MFA warned Armenia of the negative consequences of this step, as the ICC ordered the arrest of president W. Putin on March 24. Prime Minister N. Paszynian explained in that message that his country's accession to the ICC was not a step aimed at Russia but in Azerbaijan and is linked to the attacks of the second in September 2022.
Armenia's public opinion, too, after a fresh series of crises in relations with Russia, seems to have turned its sympathy distant from the erstwhile protector of the Caucasus republic. In a January to March 2023 survey by the global Republican Institute of the United States, although 50% of respondents identified Russia as 1 of the most crucial political partners, more pointed to France, Iran and the USA.
Breaking up with Russia has already brought negative consequences for Armenia not only in the area of security. On 31 April 2023, after the Constitutional Court of Armenia ruled that the Statute of the Roman ICC was not contrary to the Constitution of the State (Armenia signed the Rome Statute in 1999 but did not ratify it and in 2004 the Constitutional Court there ruled that the Statute was contrary to the Constitution of Armenia. The current revision of the ruling is justified by amendments to the Constitution adopted after 2004) thus beginning the way for its ratification, Moscow suspended imports of Armenian dairy products for sanitary reasons, gross from sales of which amounted to USD 30 million on the Russian marketplace in 2022 – only a tiny part of which amounted to 19.5 billion. USD of the budget of Armenia but being the basis of income crucial in Armenian society of the agricultural sector. Russia can besides extend its embargo on fruit, vegetables, wine and alcohol, which will have an even greater impact on the economy of the Caucasus republic.
Ronald Lasecki
