The right-wing wave, which brought Donald Trump back to power in November, besides reached Poland on 18 May: in the first circular of the presidential election, the pendulum pulled rapidly to the right, penetrating the wall and soaring into areas where Polish politics had not yet been found. Not only in the first circular the difference between Karol Nawrocki and Rafał Trzaskowski proved to be minimal, but the candidates of the far right besides had over a 5th of the votes. 4th place, with the support of 6.34% took Grzegorz Braun – a candidate declaring himself a monarch, an enemy of democracy, building popularity on anti-Semitic and anti-Ukrainian slogans and acts of political vandalism and violence.
Polish alt-right He's got something to celebrate. With advanced attendance, he convinced 1 in 5 voters, and even more importantly he was besides in a strong position to decide not only who would become president on 1 June, but besides what Polish politics would look like in the second half of this decade.
On the current Trzaskowski tactics, he will not enter the Presidential Palace
Trzaskowski won the first round. However, it is simply a bitter victory, yet never in past the winner of the first circular in the presidential election had so many reasons to worry about whether to keep the advantage in the second. The president of Warsaw should be clear about 1 thing: on the current tactics he will not enter the Presidential Palace.
It was based on 2 pillars. First, by moving the candidate to the right, distancing him from besides progressive and besides large a city image, building a message so as not to offend anyone. If Trzaskowski was a figure from Polish literature in the first round, he would have been a young man from Wedding Wyspiański: a descendant of a good, intelligent household with its own tomb in the Rakowicki Cemetery in Krakow, who dresses in peasant outfits, meets with agrarian hostesses, commending the strong and conservative values of Polish folk. In the protagonist Wyspiański this is mainly a comical effect, in the case of Trzaskowski it was barely adequate to support what KO is presently writing.
The second pillar was the demonizing of Karol Nawrocki, which took on a peculiarly intense dimension during the last 2 weeks of the campaign, erstwhile the case of Nawrocki's studio came out. Trzaskovsky's staff simply overheated the case, although possibly decided the absolute loyalty of the PiS electorate to the party's indications. In the second round, even an electorate convinced that Nawrocki has no moral qualifications for the highest office in the state may consider that this is not yet a good reason to vote for his main competitor.
To build the majority in the second round, Trzaskowski must offer voters something more, something new. In his speech after announcing the results, the president of Warsaw addressed the voters of the left, recalled progressive and social demands. The electorate of the left, frequently frustrated by the way the current government treated its close demands, may, however, not be mobilised in the second circular on specified a scale as to give Trzaskowski a victory.
Left without tragedy but without the right to triumph
Left-wing candidates will evidence about 10.18 percent in total. This will be the best consequence since the start of Grzegorz Napieralski in 2010. In particular, Adrian Zandberg has reasons to be satisfied, who will overtake Magdalena Biejat and with a score close to 4.86 percent have surpassed expectations from the beginning of the campaign. At the same time, with the support of Biejat at the level of 4.23%, we have a tie on the left with the indication of the candidate Together alternatively than the triumph or defeat of any party.
At the same time, the left has no reason to feel triumph, including the 1 from Together. Its consequence pales with over 20% support for the extremist right. Adrian Zandberg was able to cut a niche close to the electoral threshold, but at the same time, despite hopes, he could not halt Mentzen's growth, which gained 3 times higher support and won among the young. According to exit poll, among the Confederate voters of 2023 Zandberg collected only 1.1 percent of the votes, among the PiS voters 2 years ago neither he nor Biejat were able to get any visible in the survey of voters.
Unfortunately, in the context of parliamentary elections, the current results of the left may at worst mean a repeat of 2015. Only this time in the Sejm without the left of the Law and Justice could he not build the majority without the Confederate, and in the context of the regulation of the Black with the Deputy Prime Minister Mentzen and Marshal of the Sejm Bosak we will remember the office of Szydło as a model of moderateness and common sense.
The replays of 2015 will be the closer we get, the more together the feeling of triumph and the conviction that there is no longer any point in talking to the fresh Left, and the second sense of failure resulting in a course to find a place on Tusk's letters by the next activists.
Zandberg, despite his full course for combating “coritarianism” and populist language, was incapable to get crucial footholds in the folk electorate. Among the workers, both left-wing candidates close the rate with support of 2.3 and 2.6 percent, nearly 10 times the Mentzen earned in this group (21.8 percent). It was a small better with support among the unemployed, but here besides the candidates of the left close the stakes.
The left, especially Zandberg's, gained a very strong position only in the electorate 18-29 – the candidate Together was second behind Mentzen, until 62.4 percent of his voters were according to exit poll people before 30. The young electorate, however, is highly labile, hard to mobilise and maintain, and in the long run it may be very hard to build a lasting political position.
Budapest or Bucharest in Warsaw
Does all this mean that Karol Nawrocki has won the election? Not necessarily. The script that happened yesterday in the second circular in Romania, where the average right-wing mayor of Bucharest, Nicosor Dan, defeated the “swinger”, close to the PiS and Giorgia Meloni George Simion.
In 2 weeks we will decide whether Bucharest or Budapest will be in Warsaw. due to the fact that if Trzaskowski loses, we are facing a collapse of Donald Tusk's full political task and a gradual decomposition of the current government agreement. Even if this does not end with the reversal of alliances and the PiS-PSL-Confederation coalition already in the present Sejm, it will open the way of the PiS to return to power in 2027. This scenario, even with Trzaskowski's win on 1 June, seems more and more likely, the governments of the Law and Justice organization with the president of KO will look completely different than with Nawrocki at the Palace.
Will Trzaskowski have adequate reserves to halt the Budapest script? The first circular shows a powerful discouragement of the current government, his disappointed electorate will think a fewer times before narrating: vote again for our candidate, for look who is the alternative. Discipline calls to save democracy won't work either. due to the fact that whatever real threats Nawrocki's presidency would pose, the fear of coming back to the Law and Justice might not be adequate this year.
A lot besides depends on how ideologically self-conscious Mentzen's electorate is. How many of his constituents have truly swallowed and digested the alt-right "red pill", and as many inactive hold it in their hands. Depending on how large the scale of mobilisation of nearly 15% of Mentzen voters in the second circular around the PiS candidate. All the hope of the president of Warsaw is that an crucial part of the electorate of Metzen will stay at home, not wanting to vote for little evil. Nawrocki in the group 18-29, which accounted for almost 39 percent of Mentzen's electorate, has so far dealt badly, ranked 4th with the support of 11.1 percent of the vote.
We'll miss the double.
The combined consequence of the 2 candidates will, as all points to the weakest in history. Does that mean death of duopol? To that end, 60% of the votes for candidates of 2 major parties are inactive a lot. On the another hand, you can see that the duo is experiencing a deep crisis, the deeper the younger the electorate we look at.
At the same time today, the force that seems most capable of feeding on this crisis is the extremist right. If she receives the controlling package, allowing to decide who governs Poland, we may miss the times erstwhile Kaczyński and Tuski decided.
