Very hot in advanced Silesia was Saturday, June 24, 2023. Not only was it hot outside, but besides hot political events took place in the Russian Federation.
The day before, due to the fact that on June 23, Wagner Group revolt began, whose media face was charismatic Yevgeni Prigogen. I followed with attention the events of that day reading the telegram channels related to Wagner Group, as well as channels related to the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation. I besides followed the channels critical of Russian MON, but not supporting the rebellion. I read Ukrainian sources on the Telegram, of course. I didn't even watch Polish-speaking media that day due to the fact that I knew that media officers would be lost and would copy materials from the Anglo-Saxons or the most primitive Ukrainian sources.
Hopes for Rebellion
That day, Wagner Group occupied an crucial Russian city, Rostov on Don. The older residents were confused; they did not know what was going on and were mostly negative about the rebels. The rebels could number on youth support. They were youths who did not support Alexey Navalny and liberals, archipatriot youth, who was loyal to the widely understood camp of power, but critical of the many moves of any representatives of this power. Young people have seen that possibly the vasner revolt will lead to changes in migration policy, economical policy. We can see the analogy in the presidential elections in Poland. The Rebellion of the Primogyna has contributed to changes in the leadership of the Russian MON and the fresh leadership of the MON has led a better policy than the erstwhile one.
Law and Justice Voters
For 20 years in our country, we have witnessed a barren dispute between the Law and Justice Offices. Both parties in the main issues are not very different. Millions of voters of both parties are followers of these groups alternatively than voters making rational ideological choices. However, especially in the PiS electorate there are people who could vote for the national party, multi-vector, pro-social. It is worth adding that PiS took over a large part of the LPR and Self-defense electorate. Many voters of this organization have had adequate of the policy of serving Ukraine, creeping in front of Washington and its European vassals. A large part of the PiS electorate has had adequate of the European Union. Even though part of this electorate doesn't admire Vladimir Putin how to Maciej Maciak, it is with all certainty negative for the erstwhile president of Ukraine Vladimir Zelenski..who constantly humiliates the overhanging politicians, leading them by the nose. The PiS voters had no alternate for many years and with their teeth clenched they voted for the PiS, but in these elections there were alternatives.
The underestimated Nawrocks?
There are many indications that supporters Rafał Trzaskowski were satisfied with the studies that showed that the PiS candidate Karol Nawrocki He loses in polls that Sławomir Mentzen, the candidate of the Confederation (the polls were very unusual due to the fact that the citizen could not get to know what socio-demographic divisions were in the study; the investigation was done by the CAWI method – an online form, the CAWI method will be overrepresenting the voters of Trzaskowski and in part Mentzen due to the fact that respondents from large cities are more eager to participate in the research, and in the case of the CAWI method an email must be provided and the PiS voters are little mobile and more distrustful). In the investigation of the Mentzen Social Opinion investigation Centre, there was never more than 18% and there was 4% missing from the Nawrocki mine (on the website of the Centre for Social Opinion Research, any net user can check the details of the survey as well as verify whether sociodemographic divisions of our society are preserved). Nawrocki's low ratings were meant to make the management of the PiS replace the candidate for Indigenous Black. A erstwhile Lublin voivode would have the support that the Law and Justice have. possibly even part of the Confederate electorate would have taken over, but due to the large negative electorate, Czarnek would have no chance with Trzaskowski in the second round.
People aren't stupid.
Nothing in politics is predestined and you gotta usage unexpected opportunities. Mentzen's advanced ratings led to the fact that any of the PiS voters voting for deficiency of a real, strong alternate could shift their vote to a Confederate candidate. It was evident for a year that Mentzen and Confederacy besides gained in the oldest age group. More mobile, reaching for various sources, PiS voters see the falsehood, hypocrisy of the politicians of this organization who served Ukraine for 8 years and abruptly want to fight flagism. People aren't stupid, at least some. The PiS says 1 thing, and in a minute they see Andrzej Duda cuddled with Vladimir Zelenski.
Horse Error
Mentzen wasted his chance. erstwhile there was a debate in Koński, it should have appeared there (I could have hired a helicopter, possibly not the same 1 as the Prigożyn flew). The discussion of the debate in Koński and the debate itself caused polarisation between Nawrock and Trzaskowski. Braun and Mentzen's absence made it easier for the POPiS to settle things again between their candidates. Debates watch millions of people. Mentzen and Braun could show millions of voters that PiS and PO candidates are fundamentally no different from each other. After the debates in Koński, the run has already gained the dynamics of polarization between Nawrock and Trzaskowski.
Mentzen's wasted chance
The Rebellion of the Primogyn and the reactions to it by any social groups in the long word have brought improvement on any crucial issues. Russian MON has been improved. The Rebellion of the Primogyna had support for youth and military of Slavic cultural origin. Subsequent parts of the Russian Federation introduce increasingly restrictive laws on migration issues, and the issue of immigration control is very crucial to young people in large Russian cities. Methena's voters are diverse. any are liberal egoists, Atlanticists. However, a large part of this electorate are average Poles, but a large part of Mentzen voters could vote for groups akin to the Change party. The same is actual of a large part of the PiS electorate, which with clenched teeth votes for this organization due to the deficiency of a real alternative. The majority of Polish society is conservative, patriotic, with an economic, anti-globalist, sovereign attitude. Mentzen didn't usage his chance to break up the harmful Popis duo. The multi-vector environment is the awareness of the nation. Times are unpredictable, which makes affirmative changes besides possible. I hope this happens to our homeland.
Kamil Waćkowski
