A coup in Syria means expanding the importance of Turkey in the mediate East. The function of the US and Europe is weak. There is simply a chance for comparative peace in Syria, but Syrian Christians may be forced to emigrate, says prof. Maciej Münnch, a mediate East expert.
Turkey, a NATO associate State, supported the rebels who managed to overthrow Bashar al-Assad's government within respective days in Syria after 24 years of his rule. The muslim group Hajat Tahrir asz-Sham (HTS), the leader of which is Muhammad al-Daulani, took over the country.
“Turkey is becoming an increasingly serious player in the region,” said prof. Maciej Münnich of the KUL Institute of past in an interview with PAP.
He stressed that Turkey has consistently pursued a policy of building a central state with an influence zone. "Turkey from a country that has been secondary, peripheral at the turn of the century – dependent on America's safety and in the economical sphere from Europe – is becoming increasingly a subject alternatively than an object of global policy," he said. As he added, it is besides a manifestation of the realization of the “golden dream” of the Turkish president Recep Tayip Erdogan with at least partial reconstruction of the Ottoman Empire.
The operation in Syria was, in the expert's opinion, approved and mostly prepared by Turkey. "This part of Syria, which is under the control of the fresh authorities in practice, is economically, politically and militarily dependent on Turkey," he stressed.
As he explained, the Syrian National Army, which brings together various rebel groups that have helped to defeat the Assad regime, is in fact “on Turkish pay”. On the another hand, HTS – the converted Syrian Al-Qaeda – and its leader Jaulani are politically dependent on Turkey, but besides through arms supplies or intelligence support.
The majority of Sunnicka in Syria, which, according to estimates in 2011, (before the outbreak of the civilian war), accounted for about 60% of the population, is besides of large importance. "This makes it possible for the spiritual community, due to the fact that Turkey is besides mostly Sunni, and president Erdogan and his ACP are specified a variety soft The Muslim Brotherhood," explained Prof. Münnich.
Syria now needs an economical revival. According to Münnich, the government of Assad collapsed primarily due to the fact that the Syrian economy is “at the bottom” and in Syria it was becoming increasingly hard to live.
As explained by the researcher, the Syrian economy can start after the removal of European and American sanctions imposed on Assad. In the expert's opinion, the European Union may, in this situation, set conditions for the fresh Syrian authorities to abolish sanctions and establish economical cooperation, subject to respect for number rights. In addition, he may anticipate the liquidation of Russian military bases in Syria. "It is possible due to the fact that Turkey does not care about Russia having its bases there. In addition, Russia lost its face in the mediate East after the fall of Assad, showed that it was weak," Münnich added.
The U.S. – in its view – will to any degree be "off-lined" from this game due to the fact that the Syrian society "sincerely hates" the United States and treats it as an enemy.
According to the expert, specified a "transaction" policy, with clear conditions, can be taken into account by the fresh Syrian authorities. "Jaulani is intelligent. This is not a primitive muslim warlord. He can fit the situation. He will know that in order to consolidate power, he needs economical reflection, and for that he needs external cooperation. Therefore, it cannot introduce an overly harsh muslim regime, due to the fact that this would lead to the isolation of the country, especially from a European perspective," the expert explains.
"In the optimistic version, therefore, there is simply a chance that this fresh Syria, although it will be muslim – like Turkey, possibly a small more stringent – is with the resurgent economy and as specified the order and interior peace," added the professor.
On the another hand, the pessimistic script is that the Jaulani will not be able to master the interior chaos and there will be more fights. 1 of the most hard problems is the conflict with the Kurds. Their Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) now control part of northeastern Syria, where the largest oil fields are located. The Syrian National Army is constantly attacking these areas.
The Syrian Kurds do not have the chance to make their own state, but they have the support of the US, although, according to Münnich, it is not expected that the Americans would want to militarily support the Kurds in their possible fight against Turkey, alternatively they would effort to mediate in this conflict.
The Kurds – according to the expert – will most likely be forced to talk to Jaulani and decision into any form of the fresh Syrian curate. possibly in exchange for allowing access to oil deposits (which are in the Kurdish-American hands), The Kurds will be assured that they will halt the Turks from fighting there.
The Syrian coup – according to prof. Münnich – will benefit Israel, who will want to occupy Syria's territories east of Golan Hills. In the south of Syria, Druzes will not argue him, and behind them along the desert, designated “from a line” of the Syrian-Jordan border, Israel can lead its corridor to the areas occupied by the Kurds, who, the only ones in the mediate East, are seen as allies of Israel.
According to the expert, this is not a simple annexation of these areas, it will be called, for example, the construction of a "security zone". "Israel is able to bring about full control of this corridor in Syria and can shift the limits of this influence. For Syria has no army to oppose. Unless Turkey joins this, but this in turn would mean a progressive colonization of Syria," he noted.
Asad's fall is besides a defeat of Israel's enemy, Iran, who lost a serious ally in Syria, which makes it harder for him to support Lebanese Hezbollah.
Christians forced to flee?
Those who will endure the most – according to Prof. Münnich – will be Syrian Christians. Before 2011, they accounted for little than 10% of the population. During the civilian war, most of them supported Assad. “The government of Assad was corrupt, violent, but not persecuted due to religion. And these victorious rebel forces are hard, Islamic, jihadist, openly hostile to Christians," Münnich noted.
He added that Christians have no part of Syria, specified as the Kurds in the north or the Druzs in the south, do not constitute a compact majority, they will not fight rebels. They depend on them. “The Christians of Damascus have already mostly left for Lebanon. possibly they'll come back, possibly not. They can besides flee from Lebanon to Europe further," said the expert.
It is actual that groups forming the fresh Syrian power want to show themselves as inclusive, but, in the professor's opinion, they do so for "tactical reasons" and there is no warrant that they will actually respect number rights. "Many depend on what policy Turkey and the wider West will have towards Syria," he added.
On the another hand, it is expected that at least a fewer million refugees will return to Syria who emigrated to Turkey after the civilian war. "Turkey is likely to origin Syrian refugees to return to the country, not even voluntarily. This will be the fulfillment of president Erdogan's promise, due to the fact that migrants are a political problem, the Turkish community is already tired of them," said Prof. Münnich.
In his opinion, events in Syria besides show that the function of "local players" is expanding in the mediate East. "The wider West – USA, Europe – is little and little crucial here. This is seen as dropping remnants of colonialism and the consequences of the division of mediate East countries after planet War I. Will Syrians benefit from this, we will see," added Prof. Münrich.
Source: Renata Chrzanowska PAP 
