The moods towards Russia are strong adequate in Poland that political parties like fire are afraid of accusations of east sympathy. Therefore, the leaders of the 2 largest camps – Jarosław Kaczyński and Donald Tusk – 1 of the axis of their run to the European Parliament have just made common accusations of actions for Russia. specified heated emotions make it hard to have a meaningful conversation about how best to prosecute national interests in the EU.
A real dispute over European policy is so not resolved in the discussion about the direction of Polish policy, but about the effectiveness of its conduct. Contrary to narrational differences, conservative Law and Justice and much more liberal civilian Coalition on the priorities of their abroad policy do not disagree significantly.
One of these will stay the issue of close cooperation on security, including border protection, and the absorption of funds from EU programmes. Inability to unlock their withdrawal despite attempts by erstwhile Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and the procedure under Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union as a consequence of the failed improvement of the Polish justice strategy became 1 of the reasons for the failure of the Law and Justice in national elections and the creation of a fresh majority by the KO.
As announced by the fresh Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the first half of the fresh majority of governments, both problems of the erstwhile government have been resolved. However, even success in this field does not mean that the June elections to the Europarlamento must win the KO.
Change of position to the EU
The change of attitude of Poles to the European Union as specified affects this. Although public opinion polls show that the vast majority all the time is linked to the successful improvement of the country with its presence in the EU and does not think about leaving it, expectations of Poland's function in the community change.
From the Think Tank study More in Common Climate policy with a human face. Expectations of Poles and Poles towards green transformation It is clear that the anticipation that Polish policy within the European Union should be more assertive to western partners, and our vote weighed more erstwhile making strategical decisions at Brussels level.
In the view of the think tank, not only the rhetoric of the erstwhile government has an impact on specified a situation, but besides an increase in the wealth of society and a misunderstanding for increasingly ambitious green transition plans. Despite the ineffectiveness of the European policy of the erstwhile government, opposition to the Green Deal, the flagship Ursula von der Leyen program, falls to susceptible ground, building the support of the Polish right by June elections.
The PiS is so faced with a hard task. It must explain to voters that it neither wants to leave the Union nor weaken it, but on the contrary – change its direction in specified a way that it works to strengthen Poland.
Search for a right-wing and anti-Russian partner
To this end, the Polish right seeks partners among sovereign parties in Europe, whose good national results may translate into strengthening the position of Eurosceptics in the fresh word of the Europarliament. The Polish right-wing has been dreaming about expanding the importance of European policy for a very long time.
However, the participation of the erstwhile Prime Minister at the CPAC conference in Budapest in April is not proof of the closeness of the Polish and Hungarian right, and frequently reminded of the words of PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński – “I am firmly convinced that there will be a day erstwhile we will have Budapest in Warsaw” – it did not happen in 2011.
Between PiS and Fidesz there was a crucial cooling of relations in February 2022, that is, since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. The erstwhile attitude towards the European Union, which brought Kaczyński and Orban together, has come to the fore with respect to the precedence of pushing the Russians out of Europe.
According to the latest study think tank GLOBSEC as many as 90% of Poles consider Russia a threat to the safety of the country. Changing relations with Russia is so a condition sine quanon Polish right to abroad ground floor, so that we can talk about a wider alliance, not just point cooperation.
Otherwise, Polish voters – despite their discontent with the direction Brussels policy is taking – will not have assurance in the course of Law and Justice, fearing the emergence of pro-Russian forces in Europe. Then the Polish right-wing's dreams of entering and forming the EU mainstream can end with progressive marginalization towards the native liberals.
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Bartosz Brzyski – spokesperson for the Jagiellonian Club, associate of the editorial diary of the thought “Pressje”. Co-hosts the "Culture dedicated" podcast. He published, among others, in the weekly weekly “Plus Minus”, “Contra Magazine” or “Stations7”. By education, a political scientist.
