The worst thing about Holovnia is that you request a new

After defeat in the presidential election, accusations of treason against Kaczyński, disputes over the seat of rotational marshal and today's announcement about not being a candidate for the position of head of Poland 2050, it seems that Simon Holownia's political and penal flight is coming to an end. Despite the warnings of the better oriented Holovnia, he got besides close to the sun – i.e. Donald Tusk – and the quirking support brutally verified the ambitions of the erstwhile presenter, recalling the association with the impact of water on the Bruegel's image.

Disasters of alternate boats

For the record, it's not the first time it's specified a political disaster, possibly not even the scariest. Andrzej Lepper, Janusz Palikot or Paweł Kukiz ended much sadder. Creating ‘third road’ for liberal-right hegemony – whether populist-people, anti-clerical-fajnpolacka or powiat-celebric – in the last 2 decades it has always ended the same way: a gust of admiration and final contempt by voters. Both Zbigniew Ziobro and Robert Biedron were well aware of this, so erstwhile their “alternative” boats began to take on water, they jumped into larger cruisers, thus saving themselves from political defeat.

He didn't save himself from her. He made precisely the same mistakes all fresh political movement makes and he ended up doing the same. Random people on the list, the announcement of a massive qualitative change, a polling dizziness, a brush against the highest power and a quick, brutal verification by reality. In addition, as liberal media like to emphasize, Holownia was said to have "a immense ego" – although I have the impression that the ego Tusk or the instructive voters of Trzask's liberal media does not disturb so much.

The question of what is the end of Holowna, whether it will stay in politics as a "wide Kukiz", or find a foothold in global organizations, is: is it possible to make something permanent in the mediate of the political scene? The Confederacy and the Left at the ends work rather smoothly, but the example of Holownia or the present PSL indicates that it is improbable that it will be possible inside.

Paradox of the liberal organization center

The square of the wheel to be disbanded parties of the ‘liberal centre’, consists simultaneously of distancing from Tusk and KO as an establishment organization and fighting the PiS, a synonym of evil for their constituents. This requires tremendous dexterity, and so besides political volts, which are forgiven only erstwhile you have an iron electorate. That's not the kind of electorate that the hoarder had. And that meant that already at the start, all decision he made was charged either besides close to Tusk or besides soft to Kaczyński.

The funniest and funniest thing, however, is that although the parties of the measurement are not right in the long term, they play a key function in the shorter term. As Łukasz Pawłowski from the National investigation Group aptly notes, in Poland no 1 analyses what truly determines election success. Meanwhile, Tusk won with Kaczyński only due to the fact that the Left did not fall under the threshold, and most of all the 3rd Road turned 14 percent.

This gave the Confederacy comparatively the least support. However, in the presidential election, nearly 2 million 3rd Way voters no longer voted for Holovnia, and it was their failure that the election was won by Nawrocki. For a year now, it has been known from the polls that it is impossible to make a government without the Confederate, for Tusk of Kaczyński will not establish a large coalition.

Peasant reason and "apolitical" meritocracy

The successful presence of the “fresh” Holown in 2023 and the defeat of the “used” Hoarding in 2025 means 1 thing: the alleged Democratic camp needs a new, fresh player. individual who would be an alternate to a well-rounded Tusk and regained the 3rd Way voters. individual who didn't regulation and who, like Petru in 2015, could choice up Confederate free marketplace voters. Therefore, despite the leftist views, I do not believe that any folk-left grandstand could aid the current power in the fight against the PiS–Confederation duo. Especially since Zandberg and Kaczyński already operate in this field.

The coalition needs individual recognizable, outside of politics, who is not a lefty, and in his centristism is sufficiently reliable. Unfortunately, this is what Rafał Brzoska could be today. With his peasant sense from Channel Zero and at the same time the position of an apolitical icon of business success could drive to the angle of the "children from the business sandbox" which the Confederate would appear to be.

Will he decide? Will there be a fresh Michał Kobosko who will organize a fresh Holovnia? I don't know. I'm just afraid that if we do, we'll miss the Hoarding House, which, with its future copy, can only prove harmless. Seymflix.