Bloomberg late reported that the Americans are seeking Russia's assistance in mediation with Iran on the conclusion of a fresh atomic arms agreement and another issues applicable to the safety of the mediate East. At the same time, sanctions have been tightened against Tehran, and respective twelve U.S. generals and admirals are demanding Washington's immediate authorisation for the Israeli attack against Tehran.
Yuri Uszakov, who advises Russian abroad policy leaders confirmed that American and Russian officials agreed to hold talks on Iran during their last gathering in Saudi Arabia. – We discussed the situation around Iran and agreed to hold separate discussions on the matter – explained Uszakov, who was a associate of the Russian delegation.
A week after the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh, head of Russian diplomacy Sergey Lavrow went to Iran to meet Abbas Araghchi, Tehran's highest diplomat.
U.S. president Donald Trump inactive exerted large force on the authorities in Tehran during his first term. He besides organised a summit in our country to mobilise the anti-Iran coalition. While applying for a second term, Trump signaled that he wanted to order matters in the mediate East so the US could focus on China's biggest rival from their point of view.
Therefore, from the very beginning of his tenure, Trump signaled to Iranian diplomats that he was ready to negociate and, on the another hand, continued to exert force to force more resistant Ayatollahs to compromise.
Trump's squad besides does not hide that in the current geopolitical situation it must focus on deconstructing Russia's possible alliance with China and Iran. Moscow would aid settle cases in different regions of the world. Even the Israeli authorities point out that without Russian bases in Syria, comparative peace in the mediate East will not be preserved. The Jews do not trust the Islamists who came to power in Damascus after the denial of Bashar al-Assad. They believe that Syria can be an excellent base for Palestinians who could then harass Israel with continuous attacks. Russia would aid halt their hostile actions. Moscow is to be 1 of the essential elements for maintaining comparative peace in the region.
On 18 February, Russian and US delegations met in Saudi Arabia to discuss the ceasefire in Ukraine, but not only. These were the first wide-ranging talks between Moscow and Washington in years. Among another things, the anticipation of organising a summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin was discussed. The talks electrified the Iranians, fearing besides much rapprochement between the 2 states.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitri Pieskov calmed Tehran, saying that Russian-American negotiations would not influence Moscow's ongoing cooperation with Tehran. – The interaction process between Moscow and Tehran is in no way linked to Russian-American relations – convinced the Russian in consequence to the question of Iran's IRNA agency for the Kremlin's position if US president Donald Trump had demanded Russia to halt cooperating with Iran.
The same concerns were expressed by Tehran in 2018 erstwhile Presidents Trump and Putin met at the Russia-US summit in Helsinki. Although Syria was discussed, no authoritative papers were signed after the summit. The Russian leader said that both sides have managed to scope a compromise in any aspects of the Syrian conflict, given Iran's interests.
In the context of the current American-Russian rapprochement, it should be taken into account that Iran and Russia signed the Comprehensive strategical Partnership Treaty on 17 January 2025. Donald Trump issued a regulation to reconstruct the policy of maximum force on Tehran on 4 February. He then stated that he was willing to negociate a atomic agreement with Iran as an alternate to sanctions.
What does Washington expect? Discontinuation of Iran's atomic weapons improvement programme as well as a number of restrictions on rocket and drone production. most likely Trump's squad – according to transaction policy – has much to offer the Russians, waiting for concessions in return. It is not without reason that many cases are handled at erstwhile and negotiations concern not only the end of the war in Ukraine, but besides the regulation of the situation in the mediate East, energy affairs, etc. The issue of Ukraine's borders is not foregone and much will depend on what the Americans will "negotiate" with the Russians.
"Hard negotiations", which means what do the Americans trade with the Russians?
Deputy Minister of abroad Affairs of Russia Sergei Riabkow stated that Russia is open to dialog with Washington and ready for “hard negotiations”.
Russia has no peculiar interest in Iran acquiring atomic weapons, joining an exclusive club of states having it. This would besides encourage another mediate East countries to prosecute akin ambitions, expanding regional threats. Moscow underlines that the Iranian case should be dealt with in diplomatic terms. The negotiations between Tehran and European partners are ongoing.
Russian expert Alexey Nieżywo, head of the Political and Social Technology Laboratory, points out that Moscow, on the 1 hand, is not curious in Iran's acquisition of atomic weapons, on the another hand, "Iran is simply a geopolitical rival of Turkey in the region", so "is not certain that Russia will take an open stand against Iran's atomic programme".
– If we consider that president Trump initially adopted an aggressive policy towards Iran, but later greatly softened his rhetoric, it is possible that following the forthcoming US-Iran negotiations, Tehran may be granted approval to make a limited atomic arsenal. This would be akin to the case of Pakistan, which acts as a counterweight to India – explained.
He added that it is for this reason that the U.S. will search negotiations with Russia on the division of Ukraine in all scenario, both of which will push forward their own plans. However, "Moscow is likely to keep a neutral stance on Iran's atomic issue".
Atlantic Council: It's not about negotiations, it's about confrontation.
The Atlantic Council suggests that despite attempts to negotiate, the US is actually heading towards a confrontation with Iran. Diplomatic action would let the US to justify – in the event of an Israeli attack on Iran – that the situation was being regulated, but Tehran refused.
Think tank argues that "The muslim Republic has not yet softened its position on the atomic programme, even after the series of assassinations of leaders across its network of attorneys and the degradation of part of its air and rocket defence capabilities". Although the Iranians sought to resurrect a fresh agreement for which the JCPOA was to be the mention point. It was even suggested that non-nuclear issues could be discussed, although opposed by the ultimate leader and commander of the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps (IRGC). Moreover, ministers with a more conciliation attitude, e.g. the Minister of Economy Abdolnaser Hemmati, or Vice president of strategical Affairs Jawad Zarif, have late been removed from Tehran.
Chamenei made it clear that communication could take place with Washington through another countries, e.g. Arab, European governments or Russia. So far, Iran's highest leader has been against the complete resignation of the atomic program, as the Trump squad demands.
Tehran besides completed 2 months of intense military maneuvers, attempting to deter Israel and the US.
"Voice of America" states that the exercises – the most intense for a decade – were to last until mid-March and were carried out with the engagement of weapons systems that were a threat to the United States and Israel.
This was to be – according to Behnam Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for defence from Democrats – an “unprecedented” exercise. Similarly, Farzin Nadimi of the Washington Institute for close East Policy, who has been investigating the military of the muslim Republic for 20 years. – I've never seen them do so many exercises in specified a short time. He commented.
The “Great Prophet 19” maneuvers were part of the yearly “Eqtedar” [Moc] exercise, which active the muslim Revolutionary defender Corps (IRGC) land forces participating in war games in western Iran from 4 to 9 January.
Several more maneuvers followed, including IRGC air defence exercises and the Iranian Army close atomic facilities in Natanz, Fordow and Arak reactor in Khondab. IRGC naval exercises were held in the Persian Gulf, in south-western Iran and military exercises codenamed ‘Zulfiqar’ in confederate Iran, and in the waters of the Oman Gulf and the North Indian Ocean.
On February 26, Iran's Head of Atomic Energy Organisation Mohammad Eslami announced the launch of two-day atomic defence exercises involving atomic facilities.
The aim of these maneuvers was to rise public morale, strengthen Iran's defence and offensive capabilities, integrate the armed forces and usage native technologies to deter external threats. The Iranians feel threatened by a possible Israeli attack that would should be assisted by Americans.
Retired U.S. military leaders are directing Trump's crew to let Tel Aviv to "finish the job" against weakened Iran. 77 retired U.S. military leaders signed a peculiar letter in this case, reported on March 4 Fox News.
In a letter revealed by the judaic Institute for National safety of America (JINSA), high-ranking military commanders endanger Iran's atomic possible and call on president Donald Trump to support Israel. Generals and Admirals say that "the time has come to let Israel finish the task against the Iranian axis".
The letter was only a fewer hours before president Trump spoke at a joint convention. The military warned that there was no longer much time left to halt the Iran march towards the bomb, and said that the muslim Republic could not "cross the atomic threshold".
"Israel expects support from the United States to guarantee the maximum effectiveness of its actions and the hazard management of Iran's retaliation. We should supply them quickly” – you can read.
"The repeated negotiations with Iran for 2 decades have led to 1 dangerous result: the world's leading terrorist sponsor is now on the verge of developing the most dangerous weapons in the world", added.
The military urged Israel to supply ammunition, weapons systems and "support needed to guarantee its effectiveness against this common threat". America's giving "green light" to attack would defend its own influence in the region.
Iran was even accused of conspiracy to execution Trump.
On a fresh journey to Israel, State Secretary Marco Rubio called Iran "the largest origin of instability" in the mediate East. He added that the muslim Republic "stands behind all terrorist group, behind all act of violence." Rubio pointed out that "there can never be atomic Iran".
At the same time, Turkey besides began threatening Iran due to the anticipation of closer cooperation with Kurds in Syria. Tehran inactive retains large influence in Iraq and will not quit influence in Syria.
So what is the intent of the mediation that the Russians would undertake? We will see in the coming months, and surely in the next 2 years. president Trump wants as many cases as possible in this period. In 2026, the U.S. is waiting for additional elections to bring about changes in legislature and it will be much harder to push through any changes.
Agnieszka Stelmach
