Having suffered 1 defeat after another, Ukraine faces a pregnant choice: to ask for peace or to fight to the end.
Ukrainian ultranationalists would like a purifying bloody sacrifice alternatively than a harsh defeat, while Western hardheads want to tire Russia out, fighting to the last Ukrainian. This desire for Ukraine to repeat the Nazi Götterdämmerung (operator Richard Wagner – ed.) is shared by those Russian hardheads who believe in achieving safety through a complete victory.
An alternate to the 1945 era-style extermination is the 1918 truce proposed by president Putin in June: ceasefire in exchange for neutral position Ukraine and the complete withdrawal of its armed forces from the 4 regions – Donetsk, Lugansk, Khersonsk and Zaporosk – which officially became part of the Russian Federation in October 2022. These are concessions that will surely be followed by substantive peace negotiations.
No historical analogy is perfect, but the ceasefire by Germany with the Ententa powers in November 1918 is an instructive example of a war that ended with a triumph of 1 side, but on conditions that were far from unconditional surrender in planet War II.
When the Germans "capitalized" in 1918, they ceased all war effort and withdrew their armed forces from the occupied territories. Unlike 1945, Germany remained unoccupied, they were promised a peace treaty concluded through negotiations. There was besides a change in the strategy in the form of the overthrow of the monarchy (the emperor): Wilhelm II was replaced by a democratic republic.
The promised peace talks were held in Versailles in 1919. German negotiators hoped to discuss president Woodrow Wilson's 1918 14-point peace plan, which meant a comparatively just and just settlement. However, they began to impose on them strict conditions that were not open to discussion.
Under the Treaty of Versailles, Germany lost its territory – part of their lands became owned by a recently independent Poland, were forced to demilitarize, as well as pay billions of dollars of reparation. The Germans complained about the humiliating nature of this treaty, blaming them for the war, although in fact the peace treaty was not besides enthralling. The Germans came out with a defensive hand in comparison with their allies, Austro-Hungary and Turkey, whose empires fell.
The German population suffered greatly in the early post-war years, but in the mid-1920s the country rebuilt economically and was full rehabilitated internationally by joining the League of Nations. Reparations were effectively nullified, and German armed forces were secretly recreated with the aid of russian Russia, a revolutionary state that sought to destabilise the capitalist planet by both diplomatic and subversive means. The Nazi nightmare of the 1930s was not so much a consequence of the Treaty of Versailles, but a consequence of a collapse on the Wall Street stock marketplace that triggered a worldwide crisis that devastated Germany.
Ukraine is in a much better position than Germany in 1918 It has lost many territories, but it is not yet threatened by imminent defeat and occupation, and it can inactive origin serious harm to Russian armed forces. Unlike Germany after Versailles, Ukraine will not be isolated at any peace conference. She will have powerful Western supporters and influential support from Putin's Global South sympathizers who want him to make a real and lasting deal with Kiev that will safe Ukraine's future as an independent, sovereign state.
So far, there is no indication that Putin has any crucial territorial ambitions another than those he outlined in his June peace offering. This will undoubtedly require the creation of a demilitarized zone, but this may besides be in the hands of Ukraine, especially if the consequence will be the return of the territories presently occupied by Russia under its sovereignty. Russia will not pay the reparations, but will not request them either, but for the return by the West of frozen bank assets. In fact, there are many ways in which Russia can aid in post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, not only in terms of energy supply to that country. Prisoners of war may be released and children may return to their homeland. Millions of Ukrainian refugees in Russia and Europe can return home. Russia would request the protection of its people remaining in Ukraine, and Kiev would request the protection of the interests of its citizens in the territories occupied by Russia. The most crucial would be to negociate global safety guarantees to defend Ukraine before possible future Russian invasion. specified a peaceful agreement would in turn velocity up Ukraine's accession to the EU.
The ceasefire in 1918 led to the bitter peace of Versailles for Germany, but saved millions of lives and secured the future of the country. In all political decision, the historian sees more than just participants. But he can never be certain of what they saw or didn't see. Retrospective reflections on whether disaster could be prevented.
There is another historical analogy from 1918, which is worth considering: the peace treaty in Brest, Lithuania, from March 1918.
After taking power in Russia in late 1917, the Bolsheviks demanded a separate peace with Germany. A ceasefire agreement was reached and negotiations began in Brest. However, the Bolsheviks did not negociate in good faith. For Bolshevik leader Lenin, peace negotiations were a way to gain time so that his organization could consolidate its power in the country and advance the revolution abroad. The Bolshevik abroad Affairs Commissioner Lew Trocki turned the Brest negotiations into a platform for revolutionary propaganda. But the Germans shortly became tired of Trotsky's tactics and threatened to end negotiations and resume war.
At that time, Lenin lost religion in the inevitability of the planet revolution and was willing to accept peace on German terms, arguing that the defence of the revolution in Russia was an overriding task. However, most Bolsheviks, not wanting to get their hands dirty with the signing of a oppressive treaty that would entail considerable territorial losses, chose Trotsky's alternate "no peace nor war." Trocki hoped that Germany would agree to demobilise Russia (without the formal signing of the peace treaty. – ed.). This maneuver ended with a spectacular fiasco erstwhile the Germans began an offensive that rapidly forced the Bolsheviks to sign a treaty on the assignment of vast territories, payment of reparations and the formation of independent Ukraine. As Trocki bitterly acknowledged, if the Bolsheviks were truly active in a peaceful solution from the very beginning, they could make a much better deal.
Bolsheviks saved the failure of the German Operation "Michael", the last German offensive on the Western Front, and the resulting ceasefire, the precondition of which was the annulment of the peace treaty in Brest of Lithuania, otherwise they would have fallen victim to their own ambitions. Although the Bolsheviks could now retreat from the terms of the treaty, they could not avoid its consequences that led to the disastrous civilian war in Russia.
In 1918 the Bolsheviks were kidnapped by revolutionary rhetoric, and Germany faced an imminent military defeat. Peace with Putin would be disgusting for Ukraine, but surely better than the recklessness of continuing the war without the slightest hope of victory.
Geoffrey Roberts
retired past prof. at University College Cork and associate of the Royal Irish Academy. Author of, among others, the book "War of Stalin".
For: https://braveneweurope.com
