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The participation of Ukrainian refugees who do not plan to return to the country is increasing
Mr Maciej Pawlak
31/03/2025
The calculations of the Ukrainian non-governmental investigation organisation Centre For economical strategy (CES) show that at the end of November 2024 there were 5.2 million Ukrainian citizens abroad due to the war.
The vast majority of them lived in EU countries. The protection position in the EU had over 4.2 million non-EU nationals who fled Ukraine as a consequence of Russian aggression (98.3% of them were Ukrainians). The European Council decided to extend protection until 4 March 2026 - wrote Caesars Arrived in pastry economical Week No. 12/2025.
According to the expert, the countries where the most protected people were in were Germany (27.2%), Poland (23.3%) and the Czech Republic (9.1%). In the Czech Republic there was the highest saturation, with over 35 Ukrainian citizens per 1000 inhabitants. Estimates by CES indicate that at the end of 2024 only 5.4 percent of all Ukrainian refugees were in the US. In total, Canada and the US have adopted little than 10% of Ukrainian refugees.
- I'm sorry. exile plans for the future change over time - the expert continues. "The share of people who do not plan to return to the country is expanding and those who declare to return are decreasing. In November 2022 10.1% of Ukrainian refugees did not plan to return to the country. In December 2024, this percent increased more than 3 times – to 33.4 percent. Then, for the first time, little than half of the refugees declared that they were planning to return to the country (43%). In November 2022, almost 75% of refugees made specified a declaration.
As Caesars has continued, the intentions of refugees vary according to the country of residence. Those surviving in Poland are 1.9 times more likely to plan to return to Ukraine than refugees from Germany. This translates into a lower share of refugees who plan to stay in Poland.
According to the expert, at the same time the desire to return from the Czech Republic, the USA, the UK, Canada and another countries is not statistically different from the desire to return from Germany. This dependence can be explained by the geographical proximity of Poland and Ukraine. In addition, compared to Germany, for example, Poland provides little social benefits, so refugees planning to live abroad have most likely chosen more convenient conditions.
- I'm sorry. The plans for the future are besides influenced by the kind of professional activity - the expert continues. "People working remotely for Ukrainian company 1.7 times more frequently want to return to the country than people who do not work and do not search work. In the case of Poland, this is so crucial that
The calculations of the Ukrainian non-governmental investigation organisation Centre For economical strategy (CES) show that at the end of November 2024 there were 5.2 million Ukrainian citizens abroad due to the war.
The vast majority of them lived in EU countries. The protection position in the EU had over 4.2 million non-EU nationals who fled Ukraine as a consequence of Russian aggression (98.3% of them were Ukrainians). The European Council decided to extend protection until 4 March 2026 - wrote Caesars Arrived in pastry economical Week No. 12/2025.
According to the expert, the countries where the most protected people were in were Germany (27.2%), Poland (23.3%) and the Czech Republic (9.1%). In the Czech Republic there was the highest saturation, with over 35 Ukrainian citizens per 1000 inhabitants. Estimates by CES indicate that at the end of 2024 only 5.4 percent of all Ukrainian refugees were in the US. In total, Canada and the US have adopted little than 10% of Ukrainian refugees.
- I'm sorry. exile plans for the future change over time - the expert continues. "The share of people who do not plan to return to the country is expanding and those who declare to return are decreasing. In November 2022 10.1% of Ukrainian refugees did not plan to return to the country. In December 2024, this percent increased more than 3 times – to 33.4 percent. Then, for the first time, little than half of the refugees declared that they were planning to return to the country (43%). In November 2022, almost 75% of refugees made specified a declaration.
As Caesars has continued, the intentions of refugees vary according to the country of residence. Those surviving in Poland are 1.9 times more likely to plan to return to Ukraine than refugees from Germany. This translates into a lower share of refugees who plan to stay in Poland.
According to the expert, at the same time the desire to return from the Czech Republic, the USA, the UK, Canada and another countries is not statistically different from the desire to return from Germany. This dependence can be explained by the geographical proximity of Poland and Ukraine. In addition, compared to Germany, for example, Poland provides little social benefits, so refugees planning to live abroad have most likely chosen more convenient conditions.
- I'm sorry. The plans for the future are besides influenced by the kind of professional activity - the expert continues. "People working remotely for Ukrainian company 1.7 times more frequently want to return to the country than people who do not work and do not search work. In the case of Poland, this is so crucial that
20 percent of Ukrainian working refugees (who live in Poland) proceed to work remotely in the same positions they held in Ukraine (which represents 14 percent of all Ukrainian refugees of working age).
This percent is much higher than in another countries. Most of these workers work in highly qualified professions (in groups 1-3 according to the ISCO classification) - added Przybył.
In his opinion, Ukrainian refugees' intentions for the future are influenced not only by security, but besides by economical factors.
In his opinion, Ukrainian refugees' intentions for the future are influenced not only by security, but besides by economical factors.
