Donald Tusk warned on September 17 that late autumn and winter could be the most hard period of war in Ukraine. Russia is expected to intensify its attacks on energy, logistics and large cities, and to put force on the states supporting Kiev. For Poland this means greater hazard at the border and the request to prepare the state for the crisis.
The most hard time may yet come
Prime Minister Donald Tusk presented in the Sejm a script for the improvement of the war for the coming months. According to the assessments he referred to, late autumn and winter are to be peculiarly hard for Ukraine. Russia intends to hit the economy, logistics and energy infrastructure, hoping to weaken defence capacity and the fatigue of society.
This threat concerns Poland directly. There are supply routes moving through our territory, and the east border is besides the NATO border. Impacts on crossings, railway lines or transport facilities in Ukraine can disrupt movement, force the activities of the services and increase the hazard to Polish officers.
As shown by Information of the Chancellery of the Prime Minister, Poland strengthens military border crossing infrastructure. Six of them developed anti-aircraft defenses and the strategy was supplemented with additional command post and radio-location measures.
Russia hits logistics and resilience
The Kremlin does not gotta start an open war with NATO to trigger a major crisis. Airspace violations, sabotage, cyber attacks, misinformation and attempts to block aid routes will suffice. Each specified event has an economical and social cost. It forces the protection of facilities, engages the service and checks how rapidly the state can make decisions.
Alarms after Russian attacks at the border are a signal that force is not abstract. Poland needs backup transport routes, railway and airport security, energy reserves and safe communications. The military itself will not keep the country's efficiency if the administration, hospitals and network operators do not have their contingency plans rehearsed.
Tusk announced talks with president Volodymyr Zelenski about cooperation within the anti-balistic coalition. Poland should participate in activities that remove the Russian threat from our borders, but all decision must come from the Polish interest, real capacity and control of costs. Alliance aid must not mean neglecting your own defence.
The State is to prepare citizens
The authorities must tell Poles the fact without causing panic. Simple instructions are needed during the alarm, energy failure, communications interference and temporary road closure. Local governments should know their tasks and citizens should know where to look for confirmed messages.
Equally crucial is the fair accounting of preparations. The Sejm opposition has the right to ask about ammunition supplies, the pace of purchases, the state of refuge of the population and the protection of infrastructure. Unity towards Russia is not about silence. It is about agreement on the intent and hard performance control.
Russia hopes for West fatigue and political chaos. The Polish consequence must combine its own military strength, credible alliances and social resilience. Autumn and winter will be a test primarily for state institutions. Poles have the right to anticipate warnings of the services to be translated into visible preparations.
Source: Defence24, Office of the Prime Minister
Source: Defence24
