The last fewer months in Turkey have been marked by practically permanent state of emergency – multi-million-dollar protests, sending police to citizens, closing the mouth of independent media and arresting politicians of the main opposition party, or referring to the legacy of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk of the centre-left Republican People's organization (CHP).
Turkey has long been an authoritarian country in which authorities, to put it mildly, are making their opponents miserable. Recently, however, the conflict has been exacerbated and attempts have been made to destruct major competitors from the political life of the country. What prompted president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to take drastic steps? Above all, fear, due to the fact that his Justice and improvement organization (ACP) is losing the hegemon position in Turkish politics.
Frontal attack on opposition
Kemalists have steadily grown in fresh years. In 2018, they received 25 percent of the votes in the parliamentary election, and in the presidential election their candidate lost to Erdoğan already in the first round. The prospects did not look good, but a year later a breakthrough occurred – in the local elections the centre took over the 2 largest cities, i.e. Istanbul and Ankara. This success, along with the economical problems of the country, made CHP appear on the rising wave. Although this was not adequate to win against Erdoğan in 2023, the Kemalist leader lost minimally in the second round, and subsequent local elections brought CHP the first always ACP victory – both parties received 38 and 35 percent of the votes respectively, which provided the opposition with control over most large cities.
Recent polls give CHP up to 40% support, which would be its best consequence since the half-century, that is, Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit's period of rule, while in the presidential election Ekrem İmamoğlu He could number on 60 percent of the vote. That is why the Mayor of Istanbul became the main mark of the repression started a fewer months ago.
More than a 100 CHP politicians were arrested, the most crucial being İmamoğlu – on 19 March he heard allegations of corruption, and the ACP-controlled media added a long list of accusations, from money laundering to terrorist support. At the same time, Istanbul University saw irregularities in the mayor's diploma, which became an excuse for its annulment. This is so crucial that in Turkey there is simply a request for candidates to have higher education. Thus Erdoğan over the course of respective days excluded his main rival from the race for the presidency, stripped him of his position and placed him in a prison he would not shortly leave.
In July İmamoğlu heard the first conviction – 20 months imprisonment for “insults” and “threats” at the address of the Istanbul prosecutor. The mayor accused him respective months before his arrest of leading politically motivated trials and harassment of the opposition. As you can see, the authorities are not even afraid about maintaining appearances of integrity and are rushing to confirm specified accusations. specified pride, however, may prove fatal.
Turks lose patience
As a consequence of a wave of highly questionable legal arrests were protests across the country. More than 2 million people went to the streets in Istanbul alone, to which the police responded by mobilizing and blocking key objects in the city utilizing armored vehicles, water cannons and another means of coercion. There have been clashes with protesters who initiated mainly the cleaning services while trying to drive them away. Thousands have been detained since the arrest of İmamoğlu, including many journalists. Turkish courts systematically attacked independent media and politicians supporting protests.
However, the CHP did not resent state repression and organised a collection of signatures expressing support for İmamoğlu's participation in the presidential election. Including the results of the intra-party vote, more than 15 million votes were cast for the candidacy of the Mayor of Istanbul. In this context, president Erdoğan accused the opposition of inciting the nation and spreading terror, but I think he has forgotten his own accomplishments in this field. Now it's rolling Procedure in connection with alleged irregularities in the organisation of the last CHP congress, kemalists are threatened with its annulment by the court, which would make the current leadership of the unlawful and make confusion in the ranks of the largest opposition party.
Not only CHP activists or journalists are the victims of the tightening of the course by the ruling ACP, but besides a mass of average citizens, from police-sanctioned strikers to teachers who are suspended in work for participating in protests. It could be exchanged further, but 1 thing is clear – a large part of the electorate feels repression on its own and will vote without hesitation against the president in office. As long as he remains a candidate for the power camp.
Will the Sultan be overthrown?
Theoretically, Erdoğan will not be able to compete in the 2028 presidential election due to the constitutional limit of duality. However, it is not excluded that the ACP would either effort to push through a constitutional amendment to abolish this provision or organise accelerated elections – the limit would not apply in the event of a short term. Another option for the current president will be to exposure his trusted supporter and governments from the rear chair, as Vladimir Putin had practiced at 1 time. In any case, elections will inactive should be won, and this time the ACP will face a major challenge.
Of course, it is hard to anticipate that the slow approaching vote will be fair. If anyone had doubts, in fresh months the right-wing authorities have clearly shown their willingness to usage authoritarian methods and persecution of the opposition. 1 can only wonder how far Erdoğan is prepared to go. He has not tried to manipulate the urns so far, but the spectrum of election failure will encourage him to extremist measures. Especially since the structures of the state do not have anyone to halt it, due to the fact that for almost a 4th of a century ACP governments have managed to monopolize them completely.
There is simply a paradox here – in Erdoğan's early years of rule, there was sometimes talk of a possible coup of kemalist military, but the then Prime Minister protected his large popularity. As president, he has already seemed not to enjoy the support of the majority of the nation for any time, but he full controls the opposition-punished state apparatus and can usage it to keep power by force.
It is hard to foretell further developments, but it would be bad news for NATO, too, to intensify the conflict and destabilise Turkey. We are yet talking about a country with the second largest army in the alliance and an crucial player in the mediate east political arrangement. On the another hand, most Western leaders are most likely sick of Erdoğan, whom no 1 would call a dream ally.
However, this does not mean that we will receive clear support for the kemalists – the West will express concern or outrage with the action of the Turkish authorities, but it will most likely end there. Nobody wants to bet on a bad horse, and for this minute Erdoğan is inactive certain to hold the controls of the state, even if he is utilizing increasingly unclean plays. The question is whether in order to win in 2028 he will gotta quit entirely the appearance of democracy.
