On January 20, Donald Trump will become president of the United States for the second time. We can be certain that the next 4 years will be interesting and much will happen. But to what degree can we look forward with optimism, and what can we fear about Trump's return to the White House?
A Blow in Globalism
Trump's presidency is both a chance and a threat to Poland. This balance is most affirmative in the field of cultural warfare. No substance how much Trump actually does, he'll do more good and little evil on this plane than Joe Biden or Kamala Harris. The new-old president of the United States can paradoxically be more crucial as a cultural phenomenon than a policy making circumstantial administrative decisions. Trump, a white heterosexual man creating himself as an alpha male and a strong leader who succeeded in the Darwinist business world, personifies the rejection of liberal-left determinism and political correctness by the resulting part of Western societies. Now it's a two-way, so clearly not accidental.
Over the years, many destructive ideological content that hit our religion, national identity, household and ethical norms have been coming to Poland from America. Recently, a communicative about a good, liberated Western Christianity was frequently promoted, a criticism of which means “being on Putin's side” and dark east authoritarianism. The primary advantage of Trump's choice is the extremist denial of this simple dichotomia – the president of the largest western state has just been the second time a politician has been undermining the liberal-progressive paradigm, which will wash it for the next 4 years more or little from the White House, at least his rhetoric.
Of course, there is nothing to idealize Trump and make him a conservative hero, but there is simply a reasonable hope of any concrete action that can be taken in the US more rapidly in Europe. For example, the fresh president's agenda will ban kid mutilation, the withdrawal of public funds for schools promoting genderism and sexualizing students, or the large-scale deportation of unwanted immigrants. In Texas, which as a separate state would be in the top 10 richest countries of the world, present we have a higher standard of protection of unborn life than in “backward” Poland after the TK's judgment. Many U.S. states have late banned kid transplantation. Trump's presidency can besides have a affirmative impact on the simplification of ideological censorship and propaganda by companies having a major impact on the debate in Poland specified as Facebook and Amazon. In fresh weeks we have seen an interesting festival of declarations of withdrawal from “diversity” and “inclusive” policies or sponsorship of LGBT agendas by another large American companies, frequently operating in Poland.
What's next with Ukraine?
The influence of Trump's presidency on Poland's military safety is more unclear. The fresh U.S. leader wants to end the war in Ukraine, which will require force on Russia to satisfy part of the territories in the east of the country and then not start further attacks during its word of office. It will definitely not be easy and it can take time – the Russians will want to fight as much on the battlefield as possible. Trump's individual nominations and declarations indicate that the likelihood of U.S. succumbing to Russia's far-reaching demands is not high. At the same time Trump will request to force the Ukrainians to swallow specified an agreement, which should be simpler. At the same time, we are not certain how it will make and how unchangeable the interior situation in Ukraine, where the overdue presidential elections should take place, Zelenski's popularity has fallen, and the disappointing result of the war may consequence in outbreaks of social frustration.
The fresh president may be an chance to find a way out of the situation where Biden's dripping of Ukraine did not give her the possible of a full opposition to invasion. Trump, however, will be guided by the interest of the US, which may be different from Polish. We must be careful to remove the danger from our borders as much as possible and at the same time not get active in this conflict directly. The possible force on the stationing of Polish troops in Ukraine should be repulsed, explaining that it would only increase the hazard of Russian provocations. If anything, the presence of soldiers of Western countries, specified as the British or the French, will be important. At the same time, it is hard to imagine Trump wanting to send Americans to Ukraine. There's no easy way out.
An ally or a colony?
Trump's presidency besides poses a hazard of far-reaching interference in the interior situation in Poland. We all remember Ambassador Georgette Mosbacher, her arrogance towards the Polish government and her ideological commitment. After the November elections, Mosbacher reactivated media, declared her willingness to return to the facility in Warsaw, and late met Rafał Trzaskowski and Władysław Kosiniak-Kamish. The first weeks of the fresh administration will show president Duda's effectiveness in converting his relation with Trump into concrete decisions. The litmus paper will include the name of the fresh ambassador and the pace of his mission to Poland (Mosbacher came here over a year, and Brzezinski 1 year after the start of the word of “his” presidents) and Trump's arrival at the summit of Trimorze in Warsaw in April or his absence.
Theoretically, 1 can imagine a conservative U.S. Ambassador mythizing the activities of the Tusk government and any engagement of the American administration in the Polish presidential election – specified as gestures and meetings suggesting a preference for the candidate of the current opposition. Especially since Tusk did a lot to harm himself in the eyes of Trump and his men. He besides got under the skin of fresh Vice president Vance or fresh head of Rubio diplomacy. The scale of Tusk's attacks on Trump was simply curiosistic – no another European politicians fighting for power in their country went this far. Macron or Scholz in front of all their disabilities are clearly more serious people than Tusk. However, practice can be very different. Trzaskowski has besides tried to build his connections behind the Ocean in fresh years and to show the Americans as a politician more “their” than Tusk. Unfortunately, the Polish right is rather weak erstwhile it comes to the position in the USA – without comparison with much smaller and conducting little pro-American abroad policy Hungary.
Polish politicians, especially those referring to patriotism, should remember that if they do not respect themselves, Americans and another global partners will not respect them. The consequence of the elections will yet be decided by Polish voters – Americans will not be able to fill the vote in PKW or carry out a coup over the Vistula, and Poles do not like to overly grovel in front of external forces. Finally, consideration should be given to the possible return of the issue of property claims of judaic communities towards Poland.
Weaker Germany and the EU?
The affirmative side of Trump's presidency will most likely besides be the weakening of the European liberal establishment. Both leading EU countries, Germany and France, are in a state of deep and progressive political instability and have serious economical problems. Trump, on the another hand, will not throw them rescue wheels or look favourably at the task of centralising the European Union. He will most likely have an assertive customs policy that strikes German manufacture and puts force on him to cut off trade relations with China. Nor will it let a return to Russian natural materials, in order to make Europeans dependent on American LNG.
Trump should besides leave or limit the green transition and re-exit the US from the Paris climate agreements, which will make the European Green Governance task all the more absurd and the leaning of German companies on green technologies all the more risky. Finally, there is simply a stronger force from the US to increase arms spending so that Europeans take greater work for their own security. Poland is not hard to separate itself from this background in plus and mostly we have a strong ally in the US, although of course our army besides has its problems.
All these factors should deepen German problems and weaken their dominance in Europe, which is simply a chance for Poland. Of course, 1 should not be deceived that Washington will always completely cut off from Berlin and choose Warsaw as the main ally. Trump was already President, and his material commitment to, for example, the Trim was clearly limited. An aggressive customs policy may besides mean that we will partially ricochet. However, his presidency may mean a more balanced relation in Europe.
The Americans want Germany on their side. Elon Musk's commitment to AfD has the dimension of fighting a liberal-left establishment, but besides of dragging a increasing organization to the U.S. side in Europe's largest country, yet critical of America. Currently, the AfD candidate for Chancellor Alice Weidel denies the claims that her organization wants a better relation with Russia than with the US or leaving NATO. Whether Musk will mention likewise to the presidential elections in Poland will besides show how crucial we are to Americans.
Of course, all the above-mentioned chances could be best exploited (and hazard reduced) by a government in Warsaw reasoning with categories of national interest, and unfortunately we do not have one.
Casper Kita
