Donald Trump's triumph in the presidential election may break the streak of the coalition of "smiling Poland". The wicked will say that they may shortly see any tapes recorded by clever waiters. I like to think Americans are obsessed with their allies. Which means Tusk's got a tough schedule. Presidential elections are the first major challenge.
In 1962, German Chancellor Konrad Adenauer was close to signing with Nikita Khrushchev, the then leader of the USSR, a pact like that with Rapallo. The Chancellor's intention, of course, was to unite Germany and relax on the lines of the German national Republic and the GDR, which was conducive to the thaw that prevailed in Moscow after Stalin's death.
When Adenauer gave the thought to president Johnn F. To Kennedy, he calmly replied that this was not the best idea. He didn't gotta add anything else. Adenauer already knew that there was no way of bringing Moscow together, as Washington would not agree to strengthen Germany in Europe, with the engagement of an enemy power.
Of course, the situation in Europe was specific. The function of Germany was besides specific. However, this does not change the fact that Americans can powerfully influence the political reality of their junior partners. And since they did so with the hard and efficient policy that Adenauer was, there is no reason for them not to deal likewise with the decision-makers on the Vistula River, influencing the home policy of our country.
There is no uncertainty that Donald Tusk is well aware of this, who must depend on who will become the 47th president of the United States who will be the PO candidate in the upcoming presidential elections in Poland.
Sikorski's stock is falling
Until yesterday, it seemed that Radosław Sikorski was the favorite. Since he seriously competed with Rafał Trzaskowski – the interview he gave Sławomir Sierakowski is in fact a program manifesto of the presidential candidate – that means that he received assurance that he was in the game. Sikorski is simply a politician with a large ego. And only the support of Tusk himself could have prompted him to make a clear declaration of willingness to run for president.
The calculation was simple: Trzaskowski is not a Tusk favourite at all, and a possible triumph by Kamala Harris in the U.S. presidential election would give a strong argument to the PO leader to phase Sikorski, having large contacts in the Democratic camp.
But the plan failed. The US presidential election was won by Donald Trump and Sikorski's stock fell dramatically. In a state crucial to our security, a man came to power, who, to put it mildly, did not favour Donald Tusk and his political camp. To say that Tusk is indifferent is an exaggeration. You can say things about the Polish Prime Minister, but you can't blame him for being stupid. He is well aware of the crucial function played by the United States in the current geopolitical situation, and for us, too, is that they are the only hard warrant of our safety in the crushed region in which we have been surviving for more than 2 years.
How about Tusk?
So what will Tusk do in early December erstwhile he's going to announce the name of the presidential candidate? He will either declare himself, or he will consider that the centre of gravity of Polish-American relations needs to be moved to the level of government diplomacy and will consider that he can present a candidate solely for national policy or Rafał Trzaskowski. This second script carries a serious threat: Americans will want to interfere in any way with elections in Poland. Tusk will so gotta prove to Washington that Trzaskowski is just a puppet, without much political importance and that the decision centre is inactive at the government center. And this script seems very likely today.
However, Tusk may hazard and bet on himself as a candidate in the presidential race. Why? Firstly, the result of the U.S. elections may be a good justification for changing the decision not to run. Tusk, a small messy, proves he has a large relation with Trump. Of course, there is simply a grain of fact in it, after all, any relations with it, inactive from the time erstwhile during Trump's first presidency the Polish Prime Minister served as the head of the European Council. However, let us be honest: Tusk is, however, a politician in Brussels closer to the paradigm of strategical autonomy, that is, the dream of any of Europe's elites to conduct a policy as independent of Washington's influence as possible.
Secondly, Tusk knows that the fresh American administration would like to be in the presidential position of individual from the PiS. It's definitely more pro-American and closer to Trump. However, his candidacy could convince Trump with 1 serious argument: since Tusk flows with the mainstream of European politics, if Trump bangs on Berlin, Tusk in Warsaw gets chills. Meanwhile, a possible candidate of the Law and Justice Office, if not Jarosław Kaczyński or Mateusz Morawiecki, is alternatively unknown. In addition, the president of the Republic of Poland – and this is due to the “factory legislation” of this organization – will not have the best relations with the “European centre”, and so the American diplomacy will be forced to take more intensive action in Poland and the Ambassador to Warsaw, alongside the conventional call for Polish politicians to rug or “curtuasive visits” at the embassy headquarters, will be given a harder job, consisting in balance between the liberal government and the conservative president.
So Tusk will have something to think about in the coming weeks. Trump's election consequence surely makes him sweat a pearl on his forehead. The series of successes of the PO may be interrupted, as we know that for Poles present safety issues are crucial, and this means that the popular usage of the people of Tusk and the liberal commentariat of the Trump-PiS association may be a fuel for the Kaczyński party. Malignant supporters of conspiracy theories will most likely add that shortly any tapes from the Warsaw restaurant, recorded by clever waiters, may come out. However, I will stay at the Adenaur gathering with Kennedy described above. Let this be a proof of how much Americans value their allies. And they're obsessively jealous of them.
Tomasz Figura
