Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his departure from office on Monday. The politician will direct the Canadian government until the Liberal organization elects a fresh leader to take over the premier portfolio and lead the organization to the election. Even if Parliament – whose deliberations at the request of Trudeau were suspended until March – will not vote in its first session of the vote of distrust for the government (liberals do not have a majority), the elections must be held no later than October. Today, their strong favourite is Canadian Conservatives – in the polls they have over 20 percent points.
There is nothing unusual about the fact that in liberal democracy, after more than 9 years at the head of the government, politicians resign from office. However, the Canadian announced his decision at a very crucial moment, just over 2 weeks before Trump returned to the White House. It is the end of a certain political era—a progressive era, or at least liberal optimism, whose symbols are specified as Barack Obama and another leaders, who, even if they were not specifically left-wing, promised a number of progressive changes: environmental, civilian rights, racial justice, and were able to build victorious liberal-left coalitions around them.
Six months of trouble.
The Canadian Prime Minister leaves after weeks of humiliation – Trump in his social media called him "the governor", and Canada encouraged him to become the 51st U.S. state. 1 of the causes of Trudeau's troubles in his own organization was the dispute over how the country should prepare for the 25% tariffs announced by the Republican on products exported from Canada, which most economists believe would push the Canadian economy into recession. It is heavy dependent on exports and as much as 80% of exported products go to the US. Whether Trump fulfills the threat is to depend on Canada's efficiency (the same condition put Mexico) in stopping illegal migration and drug smuggling into the United States.
However, Justin Trudeau's troubles began to escalate as early as June 2024, erstwhile Liberals lost the Toronto supplementary election – a territory in which they had continuously won since 1988. In September, a vote in another theoretically safe territory (they won in it since its creation within the current borders 10 years ago) – located in Montreal – brought another defeat.
Also in September, the left-wing fresh Democratic organization (NDP) expressed an agreement supporting the government. Liberals won the election in 2021, but did not have an independent majority in the home of Commons – the destiny of their government depended on left-wing votes. As an authoritative reason for cutting off from Trudeau's office, the NDP gave his approach to rail strike, but in reality it could have been about upcoming elections and the desire to distance itself from the unpopular government. At the same time, the NDP did not want an earlier election and was not ready to vote with the Conservatives for a vote of distrust against Trudeau.
On December 15, 2024, the minister of finance, 1 of Trudeau's closest co-workers, Chrystia Freedland, resigned. W open leaves She accused the Prime Minister that he did not appreciate the seriousness of the threat posed by American duties, and alternatively of preparing the Canadian economy for them – primarily reducing the budget deficit – he dealt with populist election tricks specified as the exemption of many products purchased for Christmas (including Christmas trees) from the acquisition tax.
Five days later, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced that as shortly as Parliament returned to work after a vacation break, his organization would file a motion for a vote of distrust for the government – which, with the support of the Conservatives, would force earlier elections. Following Freedland's resignation, signaling the failure of support for Trudeau in the home party, and Singh's declaration, the Prime Minister had virtually no another movement than to resign.
Defeat by a pandemic?
Even if it were not for the problems of the past months, it would be hard to imagine Justin Trudeau leading his organization to the election for the 4th time. Only 1 3rd of the respondents believe that he is doing his occupation well, 70 percent misjudge the state of Canada under his rule. Since the summertime of 2022, Conservatives have continuously had higher polls medium support than liberals.
The Prime Minister of Canada is another leader paying the political price for the economical problems caused by the pandemic. Although inflation in 2024 is expected to be around only 2%, Canadians inactive remember the year 2022 erstwhile it reached almost 7%. But that's not all.
How read "Financial Times", unemployment is rising in the country – presently reaching 7%. Canadian households are the most indebted among members of the G7 group, making them peculiarly susceptible to the effects of possible recession. As much as 38 percent of respondents stated that in 2024 their financial situation was worse than in the erstwhile year – it was the best consequence since 2021, but inactive 1 of the worst in the last 14 years of conducting akin research. As many as 2 million Canadians utilized food banks in 2024 – 90 percent more than in 2019. At the same time, in the second 4th of 2024, income inequality in Canada achieved the highest score in measurement history – which is mainly liable for the increase in investment profits, which flow to 20% of the best-earned citizens.
There are besides problems with the price availability of residential properties, especially in large centres. In the general public, the "too liberal" migration policy of the Trudeau governments is co-responsible for this situation. Today, like computes "New York Times", about 20% of the population surviving in Canada were born outside its borders, and only in the last 2 years more than 2 million people have arrived in the country.
Migration was initially widely supported by Canadians, but in fresh months the consensus has begun to crumble. The Trudeau government itself decided to introduce in 2024 provisions to make it hard for migrants who were granted temporary residence permits to apply for permanent residence, but for frustrated citizens it is not enough.
Trudeau Heritage
The rising costs of living, openness to migrants, the housing crisis, overburdening the wellness system, unemployment, helplessness towards Trump's threats – all of this has an impact on Trudeau's social reception. But how will the Canadians remember him erstwhile the dust settles after the 2025 election? What will be the legacy of over 9 years of Liberal leadership?
As Prime Minister Trudeau, he has always had the talent for symbolic gestures, drawing attention and applauding progressive public opinion around the world. In 2015, he established the first government in Canada past with an equal number of women and men. He proudly celebrated the multicultural nature of the country as his large asset. erstwhile Trump issued an executive regulation in 2017 closing US borders for citizens of respective states with a Muslim majority, Trudeau introduced himself as the leader of a country open to refugees from all latitudes, cultures and civilizations. He besides began a national discussion about the Canadian state's transgressions towards its indigenous people.
It is not worth disregarding – better dishonestly and small changing bows to progressive values than a policy openly celebrating racial or national prejudice or misogyny. However, the question of what Trudeau actually leaves behind is justified.
One of the priorities of the liberal government was to be ambitious climate policy. It has taken a number of measures to bring Canada closer to its emanation simplification targets – as demonstrated by the report The national Environment Commissioner of November 2024, this process is much slower than expected, and Canada is coping with the worst of G7 countries.
One of Trudeau's main climate policy tools was the emissions tax, with consumer relief. present it is furiously attacked by conservatives and presented as a origin of expensiveness and limiting the improvement of Canadian business. After the change of power, it is likely to be abolished or severely restricted.
Trudeau besides launched any social programs – the most crucial presumption is to reduce the cost of pre-school care to $10 a day by 2026. For parents, this is simply a major change, but for the iconic position enjoyed by the Prime Minister (especially during the first 2 years of his rule), it is not much. Trudeau has always tried to reconcile progressive social and environmental policies with maintaining position quo economical policies – 2025 from 2015 is different due to the fact that there is very small space for specified solutions.
Poilievre is not precisely a “Canadian Trump”
Perhaps Trudeau's top success will turn out to be that the right-wing populist backlash in Canada will be much milder than in the United States or many European countries. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre – who is likely to become Prime Minister this year, no uncertainty he speaks populist language and opposes simple people liberal elites, and gained popularity through support for anti-covid protests of 2022.
At the same time, notes The American “Vox”, Poilievre’s populism is much more average than this Trump. Yes, it speaks of the request to reduce migration, but this is mainly justified by the situation on the housing marketplace without demonizing migrants. Canadian populism is small native.
Though in the fresh interview with Jordan Peterson – after 5 days he has almost 3 million views – Poilievre nods to guru alt-right erstwhile he speaks of the necessity to depart from the "post-national" concept of canadyness and affirmation of "the ethos of Canada as a country rooted in the western identity", it is clear that more than the "war of the woke" policy is curious in deregulation, loosening environmental standards, dismantling the welfare state and state institutions at all. In an interview, Poilievre tells Canadians: you cannot realize your dreams, specified as buying a house, due to the fact that the fruits of your work go on to keep an inflated, inefficient bureaucracy, and arbitrary regulations encroach on the improvement of business that escapes us to the States – and I will change that. More than Trump resembles Tea organization activists more than a decade ago.
No uncertainty Poilievre will be more ideologically closer to Trump than Trudeau. This, however, does not necessarily mean that the Republican will forgive him for duties. We inactive don't know how serious Trump's announcements about trade relations with Canada are, or how we should actually treat the 51st state communications.
Tuesday at conference In his Florida residence, the American president-elect again considered the advantages of Canada's annexation, complained about the cost of protecting the border with his northern neighbour and the adverse balance of trade with him. He ruled out the anticipation of military force, but not of economical means of coercion. It is hard to explain only the desire to troll the ideologically distant Trudeau. With specified a partner across the confederate border, the most right-right-populist Canadian Prime Minister may not be able to establish a good relationship.
