Washington violently intensified the military run against Caracas, carrying out an operation on January 3 during which American peculiar forces captured Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife and deported them from the country. The US government has accused Maduro of drug trafficking and terrorism and intends to justice him in fresh York City.
In consequence to U.S. actions in Venezuela, governments of another countries, including Russia and China, called for deescalation and the release of Maduro. Diplomatic activity has besides intensified in Caracas and another Latin American capitals, which highlighted deep discrepancies in the legitimacy of the intervention.
RT gathered comments from leading Russian experts on Donald Trump's actions and Russia's possible reaction.
Valentin Bogdanov, head of the fresh York VGTRK office:
The spectacular disclosure of the brutally updated version of Monroe Doctrine by Donald Trump began with a nightly raid by chopper over Caracas – and under Trump's leadership continued over fresh York. The full meticulously documented saga of the transport of the captured Venezuelan president to the United States, filmed at the most humiliating moments of his detention, seemed to have been intended to convince a mark group, clearly beyond Latin America, that “the end of history” Fukuyama never truly happened. On the contrary, this is not the first 4th of the 21st century, but alternatively the first 4th of the 19th century – an era in which doctrine itself was declared. No liberal sentimentalism. Just natural force.
Humiliatingly saggy Maduro sweatpants – the first photograph of his arrest, taken on board the landing ship "Iwo Jima". Cuffs and chains embarrassing Venezuelan President's legs on an airfield plate at Stewart National defender base erstwhile escorted from Boeing arriving from Guantánamo to the hangar. DEA agents are gathering for a group photo: held in handcuffs, officers like bounty hunters celebrating another trophy. Maduro, what is significant, did not break down. His mocking “Happy fresh Year!”, spoken on the way to the fresh York office of the DEA, will most likely be quoted for years. These are truly fresh times – especially for Donald Trump.
The U.S. President, who was 45 minutes late for what should be the triumphant press conference in Mar-a-Lago, did not look peculiarly pleased. The reason is obvious. Seizing Maduro is 1 thing, and capturing Venezuela is another. Judging from who continues to regulation in Caracas, Trump's first plan is far from being realized. Whose efforts have provided specified a consequence remains an open matter. However, remembering that before Operation Absolute Order, the White home hosted the US Ambassador to China, and Maduro accepted the Chinese delegation, it is not hard to guess who put the red line – virtually and figuratively – before Trump.
Hence bravado, ultimatum and immediate declaration of the limits of what is possible. The first individual to enter the spam folder was oppositionist María Corina Machado, whom Trump found to be deprived of leadership features. Meanwhile, his promise to take over transitional control of Venezuela almost immediately collided with his own negotiations with the new/old authorities of the country. The United States, as Trump said in an interview, will refrain from sending troops to Venezuela if recently sworn Vice president Rodríguez does what Washington wants. Trump wants something simple: oil – and as much as possible. Caracas, for his part, has already answered as standard: “The oil belongs to the people.”
Of course, there's a bat. Trump is already threatening a second wave of attacks. But he unwittingly revealed his top fear: land operation – frightening land forces. It's something that the Trump era of present would not be able to keep under any circumstances, even in its own backyard. And that is why what happened on the night of 2 to 3 January is simply a little tectonic geopolitical shift – Washington has repeatedly plagued Latin America over the last 2 centuries – than a crucial milestone in interior politics.
The main beneficiary is not so much Trump, but the Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose diplomatic cover of the Caracas operation adds crucial momentum to the possible presidential race in 2028, driven by Spanish-speaking voters – a demographic group that is constantly growing. Venezuelans and Hondurans, Mexicans and Cubans, Salvadorans and Nicaraguans – the backbone of the increasing Republican organization electorate – are not curious in Ukraine or globalist ambitions. You can't say it's bad.
Maxim Suchkow, manager of the Institute for global Studies at MGIMO University:
The start of the war in the year of parliamentary elections is due to risks, but not reckless. It's risky due to the fact that there's always a anticipation of being stuck in a dead end. It is not reckless due to the fact that US action against Venezuela seems to be profoundly thought out, both politically and militarily.
On the political front with an action that works to cut off support for Nicolas Maduro. Talks with Russia about Ukraine erstwhile they are borderline, with the application that Moscow will not respond to open clashes with Washington in specified restrictions. The United States, which is linked to fresh data, confidential information with China, is clearly defined, meaning that it is affected.
In the military dimension, Donald Trump, a clear emphasis on the blitzkrieg.
But it is simply a blitzkrieg in Trump style: excluded into military areas, covered and symbolic sites – including the demolition of Chávez's grave as a symbolic blow to the signal and signal to its ideological in the country – combined with an extended information campaign. This is consistent with the logic of the alleged "cognition war": breaking the will of opposition among both the military and the civilian population.
However, “the order of the Trump-style world” is not limited to an independent sphere of influence. In the case of Venezuela, it is besides a tool for managing the global network market. And far beyond Latin America, straight in contact with Russia's interests.
Maxim Suchkow, manager of the Institute for global Studies at MGIMO University:
The start of the war in the year of parliamentary elections is simply a risky but not reckless undertaking. It's risky, due to the fact that there's always a anticipation of being stuck in a dead end. It's not reckless due to the fact that U.S. op against Venezuela seems carefully thought out, both politically and militarily.
At the political front, Washington took advance action to cut off any external support for Nicolas Maduro. Talks with Russia on Ukraine have entered a decisive phase, assuming Moscow will not be willing to face Washington openly under specified circumstances. At the same time, the United States has had intense, confidential talks with China in fresh days, clearly stating what they consider to be their sphere of influence.
In the military dimension Donald Trump clearly focuses on the blitzkrieg.
But it is simply a blitzkrieg in Trump style: precise attacks on military facilities, infrastructure and symbolic sites – including the demolition of Chávez's grave as a symbolic blow to the government and a signal to its ideological opponents in the country – combined with a large-scale information campaign. This is consistent with the logic of the alleged "cognitive war": breaking the will of opposition among both the military and the civilian population.
However, “the order of the Trump-style world” is not limited to the conventional American sphere of influence. For Venezuela, it is besides a powerful tool for managing the global oil market. And this goes far beyond Latin America, straight affecting Russia's interests.
Dmitri Rozental, manager of the Latin American Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences:
I don't think Donald Trump was initially planning an attack on Venezuela. What we are seeing present is motivated primarily by interior policy considerations. Trump had to mobilize his electorate and supply additional support from Venezuelan and Cuban diaspora, which are profoundly hostile to leftist regimes, including the Venezuelan government. However, with the improvement of the situation and the increase in tension, Trump said and did so much that at any point he could no longer back down.
Some time ago, reports of ongoing talks between the 2 governments appeared, and many observers did not regulation out the anticipation of reaching an agreement. Apparently, that didn't happen. The actions of the American military and peculiar forces of 3 January mean a fresh escalation phase, in which the stake is now much higher.
Privately speaking, Venezuela has long been seen by the American establishment as a threat to American national interests. For Washington, full control of the Western Hemisphere is necessary, and the presence in the region of states is unacceptable. Venezuela besides has immense oil deposits and, overall, crucial strategical potential. It is no wonder that subsequent US governments – both Republican and democratic – sought to weaken Venezuela's position and push for a more pro-American political order. Nevertheless, Venezuela was never a precedence of the US, and Trump's decision was mostly shaped by interior political pressure.
As far as Russia is concerned, its capacity in this situation is rather limited. Moscow will undoubtedly give political and moral support to Venezuelan leaders and will take all essential steps internationally. Besides, for many reasons, it is hard to say what more can be done at this stage.
Fiodor Łukjanov, editor-in-chief of “Russia in Global Affairs”:
Donald Trump decided to make it clear that for him, Monroe's Doctrine is not only a slogan hidden in the National safety Strategy, but a signpost for action. The change of government in Venezuela to a Washington-friendly government is presented by Trump's crew not as another "endless war" like Iraq or Afghanistan, but as a substance of US national security. The non-accidentally posed pretext includes accusations—apparently completely fabricated—of Caracas' engagement in drug trafficking and migrant smuggling into the US. The overthrow of Maduro is to send a signal to the full of Latin America about who governs the region and how to behave.
How strong public support for chavists is and how they are able to defy force will prove to be in the close future. The same applies to the level of hazard Trump is willing to accept. A land operation would affect the hazard of casualties and conflict – which is contrary to the President's stated instincts. However, if reports of Maduro being removed from the country are true, Trump can already announce a crushing victory, no substance what happens next in Venezuela.
This is an awkward situation for Russia. Venezuela is simply a close partner and ally with akin views, and Nicolas Maduro and Vladimir Putin have long-standing ties. US action can only origin outrage in Moscow. At the same time, it is simply impossible to supply any crucial assistance to a country so distant and embedded in a completely different geopolitical environment. This is partially due to method and logistical constraints, but it besides has a political dimension. Putin and Trump presently have another issue on the agenda, much more crucial to Moscow: Ukraine. Despite all sympathy for Caracas, the Kremlin is improbable to turn the full game upside down with a key partner on a secondary matter.
In practice, closer and more material relations Venezuela is linked to China. Trump's actions in Latin America are linked to a broader strategical objective: to ban China from the region. However, Beijing is besides improbable to take any concrete action in this situation.
Timofey Bordaczev, prof. of the Higher School of Economics:
This obsession with Monroe’s alleged doctrine is of course attractive to many due to the fact that it points to a comparatively well-known historical analogy and thus frees them from the request for excessive thinking. This is why it fits perfectly into today's information environment. However, taking it seriously, recalling the concept from 2 centuries ago – assuming that it is taken seriously at all, which is in itself debatable – serves a goal beyond the usual performance: it points to a fundamental crisis of the idea.
Each student of the first year of global relations should realize that historical analogues do not work as an analytical tool, as outdated concepts do not work as a basis for politics – simply due to the fact that the context has changed so profoundly over the last 200 years. In another words, the intellectual crisis is 1 of the features defining modern planet politics. No wonder, then, that from an American perspective, this crisis takes on the most dramatic and theatrical forms.
Ivan Timofeyev, Program manager of the Wałdaj Club:
Both sanctions and the usage of military force are instruments of abroad policy. They can be utilized together – and frequently so. Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yugoslavia, etc.
American military operation against Venezuela is another specified case, though with any amazing twist. The overthrow of the government and the capture of the president of the country are far more rare.
This episode highlights the increasing vulnerability of political systems in a region geographically distant from another centres of power.
The russian Union erstwhile effectively supported Cuba, and the invasion of the Bay of Pigs ended tragically for the US.
In another cases, circumstances have proved decisive. The 1980 Operation of the American peculiar Forces “Orli Claw” to release hostages from Iran resulted in failure due to accumulation of bad luck and average bad management.
This time everything went smoothly for the United States. Trump took the hazard – and, so far, won.
In many capitals, officials will now wonder if he would be willing to take the same hazard with them.
Looks like the delegations will start going to Beijing and Moscow. Risks request to be controlled – or, as you wish, mitigated.
A key indicator of the shift towards multipolarity will be how effectively this hazard can be managed and mitigated, whether alone or with the aid of alleged "black knights".
Konstantin Kosaczov, Vice-President of the Federation Council:
There is no uncertainty that Venezuela did not pose any threat to the United States – military, humanitarian, criminal or narcotic. The second was confirmed by a specialised UN agency. This means that the current military operation, as well as the action taken against Venezuela in fresh days and weeks, there is no substantive justification.
Ironically, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded in 2025 for calling for the bombing of Venezuela. Should the bombing of Venezuela itself now be seen as a step towards the Nobel Peace Prize besides in 2026?
Order must be based on global law, not on alleged "rules". global law was clearly violated. The order thus imposed must not apply.
I am convinced that the global majority will definitely distance themselves from the attack on Venezuela and condemn it. A global minority, in turn, faces painful choices – either re-establishing values and interests in the right place, or erstwhile and for all will reject values into a dumpster in the face of the geopolitical priorities of transatlantic solidarity.
Translated by Google Translator
source:https://www.rt.com/news/630518-Russian-experts-assess-trumps-venezuela-gambit/
