Conversation with Gulbaat Rcchiladze, Georgian polytologist
Where do you think specified advanced support for the ruling organization – Georgian Dream comes from? They were to get 54% of the vote.
– Officially, it's 54%, and that's what the full dispute is about. Whether they actually got that much vote or not. Either way, Georgian Dreams are far ahead of another groups, besides opposition ones, if you look at support for each of them separately. Why? Firstly, it is simply a organization of power that always has considerable administrative resources at its disposal to influence voters. But there is another factor, very important, which influenced the success of Georgian Dream, regardless of the fact that corruption flourishes in the country, people are dissatisfied, Georgians are forced to travel abroad, including to European countries, especially to Poland, where they must work hard for not much money. Georgian Dreams, regardless of their responsibility, have rather skillfully utilized the fear of war in their campaign. They told their voters and the full nation that if they did not win and the opposition prevailed, a fresh war with Russia would begin.
These concerns work effectively in the context of what is happening in Ukraine. This was done by the opposition itself by its stupid actions and statements, especially at the first phase of the Ukrainian conflict. Her overzealous solidarity with Ukraine, with the Kiev regime, caused people to come to the conclusion and found that it was actually a organization of war, as defined by the Georgian Dream opposition. In addition, abroad centres, in the various Members of the European Parliament, American Senators and Congressmen, began to support the opposition. Not only Members and Congressmen, but besides representatives of executive authorities. Georgian Dreams began talking about the global war party. But let's look at the another side. Why was the opposition not so weak? After all, the united opposition lost slightly, despite the fact that there are many highly compromised people in its ranks – erstwhile prime ministers, MPs, bankers who took property from people, did usury alternatively than civilised banking activities. This has been the case in Georgia so far. Meanwhile, these people got good results, too. Why? due to the fact that the opposition besides plays with fear. What fear? The opposition argues that the triumph of Georgian Dreams means closing the entry for Georgians into the European Union, occupation losses in Europe and poverty. It besides works. People don't want to end up unemployed on the street. Europe, America, but Russia besides uses Georgians. They have much better surviving conditions there in European countries and are afraid to lose it. In fresh years, dozens and hundreds of thousands of people have gone there. They sent money from there. Incidentally, this is simply a very crucial social problem. Separated families – for example, the wife leaves behind work, and the husband stays; 1 kid leaves, and the another stays, etc. That was the social background of the campaign. It was about which fear would prove stronger. Turns out the fear of war is simply a small bigger.
What are these administrative resources of Georgian Dream? In the West, it was claimed that the organization was supported by Moscow, or at least by any circles in Russia. How much do you think it is, right? Or possibly Georgian Dream had adequate of its own resources to warrant itself an election victory?
– There was no real support, although in Moscow Georgian Dream was cheered for, due to the fact that many people there believe that the current opposition is influenced by Saakszwili and it must be assumed that he is in charge of her actions. Yet Saakashvili caused the war with Russia in 2008. It is so recognised in Moscow that Georgia's dream is already better, so that no additional tensions arise in Georgia's relations with Russia. Regardless of the fact that Georgian Dreams, like the opposition, officially declared on respective occasions that they did not intend to change their policies towards the European Union, NATO and the United States, Moscow would like to have the organization of Ivanishvili in the Georgian government. However, this does not mean that it is someway helping, unless we consider the Georgian government that Putin has not cancelled, or even extended, to let Georgian citizens to stay in Russia for an indefinite period of time, alternatively of the 90-day limit previously in force. These are specified indirect signals of Moscow, like the message of the Russian abroad Minister that Russia is ready to support the dialog between Tbilisi and Cchinwali and Suchumi. Incidentally, these are very affirmative signals coming from Moscow. But in another form, specified as any financial support, there is no request for specified help. Georgian Dreams direct the full economy of the country, determines the budget and its expenditure. There is no military support, due to the fact that Georgia does not ask for specified support. There is so no and no interference. If the Georgian side asked for help, Russia would give it. Provided that this is officially requested by the authorities, and that will not happen.
So let's decision on to the opposition. There have been accusations and suspicions that it is straight supported, including in the financial dimension, from abroad sources. How much evidence could be found of the truthfulness of these claims, which many Georgian politicians made? How reliable is the information about any real, crucial financial assistance to the current opposition from Western influence centres?
– It is no secret that the opposition does not complain about finances, nor does the ruling party. This is about the pro-Western opposition, which is why it is pro-Western, that it is financed by the West. On the another hand, it has long functioned autonomously – it has its own resources. However, it is widely known that the accounts of various NGOs are influenced by money from Western countries. There are certain youth organisations, but I will not go into item here – I was not curious in what channels they were financed, by which parties and bills. All of this, however, takes place in conjunction with peculiar services, not necessarily Georgian. Nobody's always fought it that seriously. The abroad Influence Act, which was passed at the initiative of the ruling party, has only just entered into force and is not full operational, and the government cannot do anything about it. In fact, the opposition does not intend to someway negate the existence of support it receives from the West, due to the fact that in Georgia it is not a secret to anyone.
Immediately after the election, according to any experts, there was a threat of another colourful revolution in Georgia. The opposition, or at least any recently elected parliamentarians, declared that it intends to boycott the work of the fresh parliament. I realize they will waive their parliamentary credentials...
- Yeah. They have already expressed their common position on this issue that they will not cover any parliamentary mandates due to the fact that they consider the election results to be falsified. I will now talk of arguments in favour and against falsifying elections. The point is that we have regions in Georgia, frequently hard to reach, which are mostly integrated into Georgian society. This is primarily the Samcche-Dzhavachetia region, which is 90% inhabited by Armenian Georgian citizens, who usually do not talk Georgian at all, and many of them do not know Russian either, or know it very poorly. It is simply a state with hard surviving conditions, even against the background of the remainder of Georgia, although we are not a state of prosperity. This is simply a favourable area for obtaining parliamentary seats. The locals always vote for power, no substance what. Can it so be considered a forgery that the ruling organization obtained over 90% of the vote there, as in the neighbouring region of Lower Kartlia, inhabited by cultural Azerbaijanes even since the time of the Borczalin Sultanate? They usually vote for a organization of power, no substance who's in charge. This time, however, there have been respective cases where any people from outside, representing the authorities, entered the polling station in Kartlia and threw all the files of ballot cards into polling urns (not everywhere utilized electronic urns). That would be a serious violation of the rules, especially if individual recorded it on a camera, and after all the monitoring was in all polling station. It could then be assumed that actually specified false ballot cards were besides utilized in another regions, somewhere in the province, in Adjaria, etc. It could turn out that it is precisely those 5-10% of the votes that decide whether Georgian Dreams have a majority or a parliamentary minority. However, I do not know any another serious evidence of falsification of elections.
If the revolutionary process of destabilizing the country continues to increase, no 1 will even look for any evidence, and that is what is happening, with the support of Western countries. As usual in specified cases, the Baltic countries, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, are headed. They declare themselves our friends, but proceed to agiate Georgia against Russia. They tell us, we're your friends, we should go against Russia together. I'm sorry, but we don't feel the need. possibly Estonian nationalists have it. But they inactive have: that we are Europe, that if we want to join the European Union, we should do this and that. Now it's happening again. They urge you to talk against the authorities in office. Even if the opposition is right, if it is based on facts, what law does any Lithuanian or Estonian minister gotta say? But what is Estonia – the U.S. Department of State has already issued a statement, although somewhat blurred, but clear adequate to realize that the United States is not satisfied with the result of the election. Therefore, external pressures are expanding and will proceed to increase. The situation inside the country, protests, is heated. Let me repeat: if there is evidence of election fraud, they should be dealt with by the courts. However, no 1 will remember the evidence shortly enough. And with the courts is this problem, proving against the present authorities that their composition was mostly determined by the organization of power and the people of Ivanishvili. This concerns the ultimate Court, the Constitutional Court and the appeal courts, which consider complaints. Ivanish was a man who not only informally decides everything, not only influences power, but besides affects fundamental political and economical issues.
We inactive have statements from the president of Georgia. By the way, we besides have the position of the Polish Ministry of abroad Affairs, which states that it responds to the appeals and declarations of president Zurabiszvila. Could Zurabishvili have a real impact on events? Is it real in Georgia?
– Regardless of its character, it is somewhat controversial and not very popular, it is able to importantly influence events. He is the head of state coming from the general election. Although her word of office will be over soon, she will inactive be president until the parliament meets. It so takes a very crucial position in the current state agreement not to say crucial. Only the mayors of large cities will now be straight chosen from one-person authorities. By the way, we have Mr Tbilisi, who is Kacha Kalaga, a erstwhile well-known footballer playing for AC Milan club and Georgia's team, who was erstwhile a very popular Georgian Dream politician, and yet this time the ruling organization in the capital lost. Tbilisi is over a million people, it has a million 2 100 or 1 million 3 100 1000 inhabitants, that is, most of Georgia, and it did not win in any circuit to vote on. That's very meaningful. This may be evidenced in favour of the explanation of forgeries in the province. That would be hard in Tbilisi. There were any fights in the city outside the polling stations, where a semicriminal component supporting power was involved. Opposition supporters were beaten, which is unacceptable. Now we're utilizing the power footage of incidents like this that have appeared a lot. Zurabishvili said from the beginning that she would not accept the results of these elections. He won't admit those 54% of the ruling party. It will now be Poland, the Baltic countries, America and all another supporters of the opposition, not the government. After all, the president is an authoritative office, and if there are any differences between the government and the President, then abroad, the West will stand by the President. They will say that they are not interfering in anything, but there is simply a president elected in a general vote, who tells us that yes – the elections were rigged. They'll be calling the president. This is another, I apologize for the expression, the idiotic decision by Ivanishvili, who promoted this female himself to president. The French and any another countries have also, of course. The French must have pushed her through, due to the fact that she is simply a French citizen. They wanted to prosecute a clearly pro-Western policy with it. At any point – I witnessed this – she wanted to establish contacts with Russia on a government level, but she failed.
And what happens after her term?
– It was elected in 2018 for a six-year term. But now our political strategy is changing. It was decided that since 2024, and thus after these parliamentary elections, Georgia would become a unequivocally parliamentary republic. So we will no longer have presidential elections, and another president will be elected by parliament. Parliament will decide who will be the head of state.
So we can presume that the next president will be the Georgian Dream candidate?
– If, after everything that Georgian Dream is doing now, someway it will get distant with – which I powerfully uncertainty – then yes. But if the script is different, we'll have another candidate.
Is there a 3rd force in Georgia? We have the Georgian Dreams we've already talked about. We have more or little pro-Western opposition. Are there political forces that do not support Georgian Dream or pro-Western opposition?
– Of course they do. However, they are besides weak, unprepared for election and unprofessional. The problem is that Ivanishvili cleaned the forefield. He did it consciously. He marginalized all who did not support him, but did not support the pro-Western liberal opposition. He preferred to strengthen the liberal opposition, so that only in Georgia the pro-Russian opposition could not appear. In his self-centered way, he feared it most. He stated that he would take everything under himself, and too him let only Saakashvili stay as a model opponent. Either him or Saakashvili – this is simply a convenient solution for him. And in this way he tries to justify his existence in power, which is increasingly prolonged – I mean his exercise of real power. For example, we have the conservative Al-Info movement, which has been delegated at all and not allowed to vote. As a result, his members joined the Alliance of Patriots of Georgia, which Ivanishvili had cheated a fewer years ago. He utilized this organization to interact with Moscow, then deceived its leaders, blamed them for any possible faults. It's a long story, possibly another time. I just want to say that parties that may be 3rd forces exist, but have been marginalised by the authorities. Power doesn't even announcement them as if they didn't exist. I represent the Eurasia Institute and since 2009 I have been engaged professionally, as the head of this unit, in Georgian-Russian relations. I found out that for 10 years, Ivanishvili was interfering with any projects in Russia. As shortly as he can, he'll key and cheat. We did not play against him. We may have somewhat added our bricks to his first victory. I believe that all rationally reasoning Georgians in 2012 acted for the success of Ivanishvili. The most crucial thing then was to remove Saakashvili from power. And it worked. I do not regret it, although it turned out that he was pursuing any another goals.
My last question is related to Georgian-Russian relations. There is much talk that if the situation is stabilised in Georgia, there are plans and the likelihood that Ivanishvili will be ready to talk to Moscow about the position of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. any experts, including Russian experts, propose that a strategy of confederation in Georgia will be possible in the future. In fact, Moscow should not stand in the way of the return of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to Georgia. How likely do you think this script is? Is it possible that Ivanishvili – if he succeeds in carrying out specified a script – will become the actual political hero of modern Georgia, who restored her Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
– To begin any processes in this sphere, Georgia should at least start participating in the 3+3 format, which has been called up to address these issues. Not only Russia, but a number of serious players in the Caucasian region. Georgia is part of this region. delight note that within this format Russia practically recognises that there are only 3 countries in the South Caucasus. No South Ossetia or Abkhazia is mentioned, for neither Turkey nor Iran admit these republics. However, Russia is ready to have specified a dialog on Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which is to practically consider it part of Georgia. Meanwhile, Georgia does not participate in this format of talks. But it is simply a completely harmless expression – it is not any organization, any OSCE or anything like that. Georgia, however, refuses to participate in it due to the fact that it is categorically pressed by its opposing Americans. It appears that the Americans are opposed to normalising Georgian relations with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Above all, they are the obstacles.
Russia went to the escalation in 2008 due to the fact that she was left with no another choice. But then she miscalculated due to the fact that she wanted Abkhazia and South Ossetia to become internationally recognized states. She spent money on it, paying for their designation to the Tuvalu authorities, Nicaragua, all these exotic countries, Hugo Chavez, etc. It was spent on public funds from the Russian budget. It was later noted in Moscow that specified a policy was incorrect and a clearer view of the situation appeared. However, Ivanishvili did not benefit from it. I uncertainty that he will benefit from this anticipation in the future. He could have restored relations with Russia a fewer years ago, but he didn't. He didn't take any steps to support it. But Putin seemed to be serving him the ball, taking steps. A visa-free movement has been introduced, which I already mentioned. There were besides a number of promising actions and declarations by president Putin and abroad Minister Lavrow. However, Georgian authorities inactive fear. That's why I'm skeptical about all this.
Then I have 1 more question about Georgia's abroad policy. It is widely seen that Georgians alternatively support participation in the European integration process. I even pointed out that during the last days of the election campaign, Prime Minister Kobachidze stressed that Georgian Dreams were besides pursuing this direction. From a geopolitical point of view, at least in the past – even in the case of Ukraine – the European Union was not perceived as a threat by Moscow. It's different with NATO. How much more is discussed in Georgia, as in Saakashvili's day, about the concept of joining NATO as part of the rapprochement with the West?
"The 2008 NATO Summit in Bucharest declared that Georgia would become a associate of the alliance. There's just no telling erstwhile it'll happen. I think the case is closed. NATO in the current situation with Russia is barely mentioned, not even the opposition. Everyone is talking about Europe and the European Union. However, nobody declares erstwhile membership comes. It's significant. This is related to the situation of Ukraine – the tragedy of which NATO is guilty – I will say this openly. The NATO issue will not be discussed in Georgia for the time being. There will be no specifics and no debates. It will stay in the realm of distant goals. On the another hand, there is inactive a evidence in our Constitution that Georgia should search EU and NATO membership. Georgia did so in 2016 – it introduced specified a constitutional record. It's full stupidity and nonsense. How can membership in a constitution be recorded in an organization, even the most powerful? Even if you are a supporter of membership of this organization, even if it is considered necessary, specified things are not written in the constitution. I do not know any another specified cases; there may have been exceptions, though I uncertainty it. This is enshrined in the transitional provisions of the Constitution. But whether it is temporary or not – these are provisions in the Constitution. That is why, after these amendments were adopted, controversy arose immediately. The West responded to the criticism of these provisions that it was questioning future EU membership. As a result, the opposition began to trust on the constitution in various disputes, constantly accusing the authorities of breaking it, by passing regulations that truly hinder our integration into the European Union
Thank you for talking to me.
Dr Gulbaat Rcchiladze – Georgian political scientist, founder and president of the Eurasia Institute in Tbilisi.
photo of wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 47-48 (17-24.11.2024)
