There are inactive little than 3 months to the elections to the European Parliament, but it is hard to anticipate the support for the national and anti-immigration right in Europe to fall suddenly. Even Western societies have adequate mass immigration, and they support farmers' protests against the European Green Deal. So it seems that shortly there will be no shortage of electoral fuel. The western establishment is already preparing for a crucial reinforcement of the populists.
Some Euro-elections can only be said to have taken place. A decade ago in Poland was loud about the success of the legislature of the fresh Right and about the evidence support for the environment centered around Janusz Korwin-Mikke, but in another countries the vote did not substance at all. This is best demonstrated by the turnout, which was record-highly low in our neighbours: in Slovakia only 13 percent of the eligible people went to the polls, and 18 percent in the Czech Republic.
Europe has changed a lot since then. The fuel to critics of speeding up political centralization gave among others the 2015 migration crisis, the consequences of which are inactive visible on the streets of western cities. 5 years ago, full attendance across the European Union increased by more than 10 percent points, and the continent began to endure further problems. In addition, in 2020 the UK officially left the European Community, which besides reinforced the "eurosceptic" groups.
The wave of farmers' protests is now flowing across Europe. In any countries, governments have made concessions and calmed the situation, and in others demonstrations continue. Much will depend on the changes announced by the European Commission in the European Green Order, but milk has already spilled. Agricultural speeches, supported by European societies, have become water on the mill of the "popular right".
The polls say everything
A clear increase in support for the parties thus classified by the establishment was seen respective months before the wave of protests against EU climate policy. Last August, an analysis of the polls on support in elections to the European Parliament published the Politico portal[1]. It resulted in European Conservatives and Reformists (ECRs) becoming the 3rd force among pan-European groups, thus surpassing the liberal Renew Europe group. The ECR was clearly strengthened thanks to the increasing popularity of the Italian Brothers (FdI) Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Spanish VOX, or Swedish Democrats (SD).
It should be noted that outside Law and Justice, this group is co-founded by parties that are moderately critical of the EU, specified as the Czech Civic Democratic organization (ODS) or the Latvian National Alliance (NA). From this point of view, much greater threat to the Chadetic power of the European People's organization (EPP) and Socialists and Democrats (S&D) is Identity and Democracy (ID). This group includes, among others, the French National Unity (NN), the German alternate (AfD) or the Dutch Freedom organization (PVV). According to this analysis, it would have gained over 20 mandates over the 2019 elections.
ID according to the latest analysis of Politico[2] It would receive 84 seats in the future 720 seats (fiveteen more than now) of the European Parliament. In this respect, the ECR has fallen, which could number on 76 mandates. For both right-wing groups, this would mean a clear increase compared to the passing term. The ID presently has its 52 representatives in Europarlament, and the ECR precisely 67. Even more optimistic for both groups is the survey published by the Euractiv portal[3]. According to him, ECR would have 83 tickets and ID 92.
It is worth noting that in fresh months not only “populists” have gained popularity. Although there are differences reaching a maximum of respective mandates, the growth trend is evident in the EPP over the six months. Their current S&D ally lost about 20 tickets in the survey at the same time. If elections were held this month, his biggest losses outside the Social Democrats would be mentioned liberals and the Group of Greens/European Free Union (Greens/EFA). Both groups, compared to the present hand, would lose even more than 20 seats in the European Parliament.
The strong become stronger
Some groups forming ID and ECR have had decades of fighting in Europarlament. However, the vast majority of them have not yet been so popular. In fresh years, in the case of RN, FdI, AfD or PVV, there has been clear progress, due to the fact that each organization has become the first political force of its country.
The Marine Le Pen group won 22 tickets 5 years ago, and according to the latest French polls could number for 27–33 seats. This, of course, is the consequence of a general increase in support of the RN, as evidenced by a survey just a fewer weeks ago revealed by the French media. In a survey commissioned by the centre-right Republicans, national voters even win national elections despite a strategy of single-mandate constituency elections with possible 2 rounds of elections. It is worth recalling that the nationalists have already won in the last 2 French elections to Europarlamento.
The alternate in 2019 achieved a 4th consequence among German groups, introducing 11 MPs to Europarlamento. At present, their delegation to Europarlamento would increase by respective politicians. The Dutch led by Geert Wilders in the past word had no representatives at all, while polls now give them an unappealed triumph with a large advantage over competitors. The Leader of public opinion polls is besides the Austrian Free organization (FPÖ), which, however, should only somewhat increase its representation due to a tiny number of mandates. The Belgian Flemish Interest (VB) is besides in a akin situation.
The results of the parties focused in ID would have been most likely higher if it had not been for the Italian League to lose popularity. 5 years ago, Matteo Salvini's organization joined the election, being on a rising wave, but since then, its popularity has fallen to just a fewer percent. The Czech Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD), the Danish People's organization (O) and the Estonian Conservative People's organization (EEE) did not make crucial advancement compared to these parties.
For ECR, the growth locomotive of support is FdI. The Meloni organization won only six seats 5 years ago, and should now increase representation to 25 Euro MPs. Outside Italy, most of the Conservative and Reformist parties compared to 2019 did not importantly enlarge their electorate, and for example the PiS might lose it. tiny parties from the Netherlands, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia will almost surely say goodbye to Europarlament.
New forces
There will surely be fresh right-wing parties in the European Parliament. Recently, the biggest success among them was Chega, who in practice crashed the existing duo on the political phase of Portugal. In erstwhile elections, the movement led by André Ventura was only taking its first steps, while now the head of Portuguese nationalists became 1 of the leaders of the full ID. Another newcomer, the Bulgarian ‘Rebirth’, is besides counting on a fewer percent result, which received precisely 1 percent of the vote 5 years ago.
We must not forget the national right for various reasons (most frequently radicalism) inactive unattached in any pan-European party. According to the results of the polls, 2 fines at the expense of the falling Jobbiku will surely win the Hungarian "Our Homeland" Movement (MHM). 5 years ago, the Romanian Alliance for Unity (AUR) which had to be united by the so-far dominant Liberal and Social Democratic parties did not compete in the elections. AUR is not officially part of any group, although after the election it will most likely join the ECR, due to the fact that the beginning is based on the Law and Justice. The chances of obtaining the first mandate in past have Cypriot national radicals from the National People's Front (ELAM), led by a erstwhile Greek Golden Dawn activist.
A large question mark should be placed in 2 groups. The “Spartan” organization built on the ruins of the Golden Dawn last year got into the national parliament, but at least it cannot number on the polls to support the hope of crossing the electoral threshold. The Dutch Forum for Democracy (FvD) for respective years belonged to the ECR, but yet due to interior divisions it remains unattached. Nationalists on the national political scene are not helped by permanent radicalization, and now besides Wilders' success. With current quotations, it will be alternatively hard to participate in the allocation of mandates for the Netherlands.
A very interesting case is Fidesz. The organization of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán left the EPP ranks 3 years ago and remains officially unattached. In Europe, the Hungarian leader seems to have the best contacts with ID politicians, in fresh years hosting in Budapest Le Pen, Salvini or Ventura. Orbán himself announced joining the ECR, which the Czechs, Latvians and Swedes are to oppose. Akces Fidesz supports the beginning of the PiS, in turn Meloni tries to convince the Prime Minister of Hungary to a more average position on the war in Ukraine.
It is hard to clearly classify any political movements that are referred to in their own countries as populist. The best example is the Danish Democrats (DD), founded 2 years ago by erstwhile Liberal and national-conservative organization politicians, with the erstwhile Minister of Integration Inger Støjberg at the head. It seems that a group that enjoys the support of around 10% would fit alternatively than the ECR, due to the fact that it does not request to leave the European Union, but considers it to be an organization that interferes with the lives of individual nations and is separated from the realities of average people.
He plays for a break?
Chega's leader during last year's visit to the Hungarian capital convinced him that he wanted to build bridges between ID and ECR. Ventura, in a conversation with the media there, made the real success of critics of the centralist direction of the European Union dependent on their cooperation. The contacts between the various groups forming the 2 pan-European parties are frequently very close, as demonstrated by the cooperation between CHEGA and VOX. At the end of 2021, a somewhat forgotten integration gathering was held in Warsaw with Le Pen, Orbán and representatives of respective another parties from both groups. In early 2022, a akin event took place in Spain.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, realises that her next word of office in this position may depend on the agreement with the right. An alternate to the endurance of her common regulation with social democrats and liberals is simply a possible agreement with greens. It could be problematic both due to the reluctance of the electorate of chadeism to the European Green Deal in its current form, as well as the positions of the environmentalists themselves, criticising the mitigation of climate policy under force from protesting farmers.
German politicians thus made a discrimination at the end of February between "extremists" and right-wing groups with which they can work. The second included parties accepting democratic values, assistance to Ukraine and anti-putinism. At the same time, von der Leyen did not want to declare whether, after gathering these criteria, she would be open to a coalition with the full ECR. It simply suggested the anticipation of post-election shuffling in its current competition. It can be assumed that the EPP would only want to drag any Conservatives and Reformists to its side, i.e. ODS of Czech Prime Minister Petra Fiala and increasingly better found in European FdI salons.
At the same time, the anticipation of historical agreement between the EPP and the remainder of the right cannot be completely excluded. The political scene in Europe has turned to the right so far that in any countries, groups in the European Parliament on other sides of the barricade work together. In Italy, FdI, the League and the Chadetic faction of Forza Italia run the country together, in Sweden SD supports a number centre-right government, while in Spain or Austria specified parties co-create coalitions at regional level. The main problem for the EPP would be the media consequence of mainstream, which, in particular, in the media dedicated to global audiences, is increasingly threatening the threat from the "outright right" and "eurosceptics". On the another hand, chadeci are not monoliths themselves. The French Republicans, for example, stand against the re-election of von der Leyen as head of the European Commission.
It cannot be imagined that a clear increase in support for the European right will bring a breakthrough in this term. Surveys are increasingly favourable for ID and ECR, but these groups are inactive not popular in allowing a complete change in the disastrous direction of EU policy. Opponents of the centralisation of the EU or the European Green Deal stay to hope that the political puzzle after the Euro-Election will at least partially curb worrying trends. The remainder depends on the agreement of forces at associate State level, which can change, inter alia, through the success of the sovereign right and further strengthening it after the June vote.
[1] N. Camut, Right wing set for large gain in 2024 EU election, polling shows [online], 9.08.2023, https://www.politico.eu/article/european-election-2024-polls-right-wing-big-gains/ [date of access: 20.03.2020].
[2] The president EU braces for right-wing boost in Parliament [online], 6.33.2024, https://www.dw.com/en/right-wing-parties-expected-to-gain-ground-in-eu-election/a-68456233 [date of access: 20.03.2020].
[3] M. Grier, Centre-right wrestling Socialists for first place in Portugal, Romania: EU elections projection [online], 1.03.2024, https://www.euractiv.com/section/elections/news/centre-right-wrestling-socialists-for-first-place-in-portugal-romania-eu-elections-projection/[date of access: 20.03.2020].
