In the quest to master the world, capitalism reveals certain patterns. An example is the repeatability of the cycle: free trade – protectionism – war – rebuilding the rule of constructive demolition described by Joseph Schumpeter.
The liberalization of trade with colonies in the mid-19th century by Britain started the first capitalist globalisation. The Cobden-Chevalier Treaty, signed in 1860 between France and the United Kingdom, followed by akin treaties with Belgium, Spain, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, was crucial. However, as early as 1873 the large crisis of bankruptcy, falling exports, unemployment, expanding contradictions and competitiveness began for 2 decades. National capital has won the principles of protectionism in strong countries, initiating imperialism as a process of acquiring and exploiting the colony. The work of this phase of industrial capitalism culminated in planet War I, whose extension was the second. After all, the 1929 American crisis resulted from the inactive tremendous freedom of capital operation.
After 1945, there was a reconstruction of the harm in the conditions of rival blocks. The challenge of capitalism by the east bloc enabled them to break out of the position of periphery, and in the western center there would be a golden thirty-year capitalism. Having put the another classes to sleep, however, the capital managed to return to the thought of free trade by developing neoliberal globalisation, after the collapse of an enemy russian bloc called precisely turbocapitalism. There has been a return to liberalisation, privatization, deregulation leading to the neocolonial drainage summarised in the 2007/2008 crisis. There was another capitalist principle: privatising profits and socializing costs erstwhile billions of dollars were donated from public funds to the rescue of private corporations and banks.
As in the 19th century, the strategy did not change its essence. This time financial engineering was launched at the head of quantitative loosening in the form of an extra US dollar and another currencies. But the changing global power strategy has made these measures insufficient. He returned protectionism as a basis for the trade war with China (2017-2021). They besides remembered another step: the kinetic war. The collision with Russia accelerated the implementation of the script of planet War III. For weaker countries, there was adequate force in the form of a stick and carrot. For example, Poland, which wanted to be a “gate to Europe” for China in 2016, already 2 years later fortified mentally “fort Trump”.
The measures have besides failed. China has not lost the trade war and Russia has lost the military war to the US in Ukraine, if you believe Adam Entous, "The fresh York Times" described her in an article "The Partnership: The Secret past of the War in Ukraine". There has been a "global awakening" of the Global South, against which he warned the empire of his leading geostrateg, Zbigniew Brzeziński. So the fresh conditions of competition required extremist solutions. From the arsenal of possibilities, the doctrine of shock, first described by Naomi Klein.
The Shock Doctrine of Global Trade War
On April 2, the president of the United States launched a global trade war covering respective twelve states, both opponents and, so-called, allies. According to a decree signed by Donald Trump, from 5 April 2025 the United States imposed a basic work of 10% on all imported goods. In addition, as of April 9, Washington planned individual duties on countries with which the existing trade balance is considered to be the most unfavourable to the American economy.
The list of countries was headed by Asian giants: China (34%) and India (26%), as well as Vietnam (46%), Indonesia (32%), Cambodia (49%), Malaysia (24%), Thailand (36%) and the earthquake-stricken Burma (44%). Allies with Japan (24%), South Korea (25%) and Taiwan (32%) were besides punished. In addition, the European Union (20%) and even Israel (17%) were hit. The fresh York Stock Exchange lost a evidence $6.4 trillion in 2 days, besides responding to China's retaliation duties against the US. It's a geo-economic tsunami that liberal media internationals have tried to shout, and this is Trump's individual accusations, and this is simply a charge of Russia's deficiency of a list. Apart from more severe sanctions, the White home explained the ongoing peace negotiations with Moscow. However, the shock doctrine utilized is part of a rational strategy to reconfigure the global economical order, which is an effort to accomplish the Washington Consensus 2.0.
The goal was to definitely bury neoliberal globalisation, which is capitalism based on the global division of labour and the single marketplace without interior restrictions, which absorbed all countries. As the erstwhile Minister of Finance of Greece stated, Yanis Varoufakis, the U.S. decision can be compared with the shock of 1971 erstwhile one-sided gold dollar coverage was rejected. The first time, it ended in victory. After all, all the Western empires to date ended their lives with an accumulated trade deficit, while the US from a deficit based on Petrodolar hegemony made the basis of hyperpower (Hubert Védrine). What about this time?
The U.S. has the largest trade deficit in the world, over $1 trillion. Half of this trade deficit falls to China, a large part to the European Union. That is why these 2 entities as the biggest competitors became the subject of the attack. First as the main enemy, second as the drainage object. The introduction of duties could cost Germany EUR 200 billion over the next 4 years and the full harm to the EU is estimated at EUR 750 billion. That is why the reaction of the president of the European Commission was so aggressive, Ursuli von der Leyen, which announced retaliation and even the threat of a "strong response". It shortly turned out that the attack was aimed at China. The remainder of the countries were adjourned, pushing the deadline for customs entry by 90 days and forcing in a homicidal kind to negotiate. Only Beijing didn't bend.. As a result, US rates towards China increased to 145%, and China responded to a work of 125%, including a ban on the export of uncommon earth metals, cancellation of Boeing's orders, and allowing US bond sale options that have a full of $760 billion into the infosphere.
In view of the threat of deepening the drain under the "community of values" of the US, the transnational corporate class is developing a European Union militarisation project. It is announced to mobilise EUR 10 trillion utilizing private citizens' accounts utilizing the digital euro. The precedent and legal basis were already created during the Cyprus crisis. In addition, joint economical activities are planned to be coordinated, including the introduction of a common taxation strategy in the EU. However, without undermining current democracy at associate State level, this plan is greatly hampered. That is why the courts are working to delegalise the politicians of stubborn national interests. Thus ends the “old era”. With globalisation in global relations, liberal democracy dies as a coherent political system.
Power reconfigure and fresh class alliance
The doctrine of the shocking end of globalisation is part of the strategy of rebirth from the ashes of the global empire. The US is to be a power representing national interests based on an alliance between the working class and techno-gigants. The confirmation of this phrase is the fresh symbols: the baseball cap on Trump's head, a cashing accident Elon MuskFinally, the ‘baptize’ of the Decree on Customs as ‘Day of the Liberation of America’. Let us consider how it is possible that the FIRE pensioner empire (financialisation, insurance, real estate) that has offshored its manufacturing manufacture and was absorbed by the structure of overly leveraged hedge funds, Wall Street derivatives and totalitarian supervision from Silicon Valley, yet decided to hit... In myself (Pepe Escobar). The possible answer is provided by the Xapo bank logo, an institution to service as a global bridge between Bitcoin, US dollar and stablecoins.
In June 2024 Trump, at the "Bitcoin 2024" conference in Nashville, announced their integration to "expand the dominance of the US dollar to fresh borders worldwide". Stablecoins – including the comparatively fresh Stablecoin PayPal, PYUSD – can “be 1 of the largest buyers of U.S. government debt” and, more importantly, “a reliable origin of fresh demand” for government bonds. Trumpism so believes in the reconstruction of capitalism in order to preserve its essence, resulting in losses of any forms of capital and growth of others. Similarly, industrial capital was erstwhile disowned by merchant capital and later by financial capital.
The leading function of large corporations – tech is to supplement the support simulator for the American workforce and mediate class. The creator of PayPal, Peter Thiel He didn't accidentally advance the vice president's career J. D. Vance, which during the “American Dynamic Summit” on March 18, announced that The interests of the planet of work must now be taken into account. The Decree of 2 April is so intended to support US producers who will employment American labour erstwhile the home marketplace buys little costly abroad goods, creating a deficit. Trump said he intended to compensate 100% of the state budget for setting up production facilities in the United States. This is how he tries to reduce US public debt ($36 trillion).
The planet Trade Organization was definitely buried, and the fresh techno solidarity – oligarchy and working classes are now developing over the dead of globalisation, not looking at the complete collapse of American "reliability" as a trading partner. From the point of view of global order change, however, it is crucial that "sanctions and threats are the only thing left to the United States. They can no longer offer another countries a situation where they are all winning, and Trump said that America must be a net profit in any global agreement concluded, whether it is simply a financial or trade agreement. And if America says, “in all deal we make, you lose, I win”, then this mafia gambit doesn’t precisely reflect the art of making deals” (Michael Hudson). The shock doctrine so involves global blackmail of the planet based on the imperiality of profit-loss.
Dawn of the “new era” of global relations
Under these conditions, geo: political-economic-ideological, "new era" has a chance of extremist acceleration. China has already announced the beginning of the marketplace to all countries, reaching a global primacy in the commercial volume with most of them. For a good start Japan and South Korea will import semiconductor natural materials from China while China will buy chips from Japan and South Korea. The US trade policy will so strengthen the "co-operation in the supply chain" between the triad of hitherto hostile states. Vietnam, on the another hand, should no longer hold accepting the position of a BRICS partner, following the example of Indonesia, which has become a full associate of this inter-civilising association of states for the "new era", for which its currency has been attacked. However, the cherry on the cake is the announcement by the National Bank of China to introduce a fresh digital yuan-based payment transaction strategy to trade with the 10 ASEAN countries. With the announcement of the introduction of specified a strategy by BRICS, possibly at the summit in Brazil, SWIFT will lose its militarised strategy intensification.
There is besides a place for the United States in the “new era” and that is most likely what negotiations with Russia are about. The return of American companies to the Russian market, the cooperation in the extraction of natural materials and uncommon earth metals, and even Russia's readiness to cooperate in space with Elon Musk are strong signs of a fresh consensus. But individual who believes in the mythical variant of the inverted would be incorrect Richard Nixon To China. As it was just 1 of the objectives of starting the Ukrainian crisis (as proposed by the 2019 RAND study Extending Russia. Competing from Advantageous Ground, this along with the failure of the West in Ukraine cannot be accomplished. Therefore, Putin negotiates with Washington besides on behalf of Beijing, although not under his dictatorship. April gathering of president of Russia and abroad Minister, Wang Yi was preparing for Xi Jinping's authoritative visit in May, which could consequence in the establishment of a permanent safety architecture in Eurasia. It is not excluded that Trump will receive a unique chance from Putin to meet both Eurasian leaders on 9 May in Moscow during a triumph ceremony over Fascism. The global policy of the multipolar planet will thus designate 3 powers, which they agreed in an interview with Al Arabiya Professor John Mearsheimer and prof. Sergei KaraganovAnd they effort to incorporate India into the tercet. Trying to look at the future of human civilization – the above geopolitical matrix – the actor is seemingly one.
The form of the “new era” of global relations will mean the fulfillment of China’s imagination of “the common destiny of mankind”. The russian Union exhausted the utopian possible of mobilization of humanity in the 1950s, as he pointed out at least Emil Cioran. The United States lost its chance in the 1990s, erstwhile immense possible was devoted to the altar of the well-being of transnational elites, alternatively of building peaceful relations based on beneficial trade and access to capital for the weaker.
Therefore, in the 21st century, China has a unique chance to introduce the wine-win era. The common prosperity, the elimination of the technological gap, respect for the cultural specificity and sovereignty of each country are essential attributes of the "new era". Fair globalisation, however, must mean more: a solid taxation of global capital, the abolition of the alienation of finance and the interruption of the spiral of wealth for a fewer to put the economy on social interests. Yet in the planet ranking “Forbes” in 2024 there were many billionaires from the mentioned powers who would defend their state of possession and influence. 103 people came to the United States, Germany – 37, China and Hong Kong – 32, India – 17, and 15 fresh billionaires are from war-torn Russia. The Chinese government's halting of the sale of 2 ports at the Panama Canal by Black stone shows, on the another hand, that the claim to choose China as a fresh globalistic centre after the fall of U.S. hegemony is included in the mythical category.
The hazard of recession or even global depression caused by the shocky doctrine of the end of globalisation has accelerated the arrival of changes “unseen for a 100 years”. After all, in 1971 China was a 3rd planet country, while in 2025 it was an economically and technologically leading power. Actors of the "new era" now have adequate arguments to offer the planet solutions for multidimensional social improvement and at the same time cancel the repetition of the capitalist cycle by eliminating the planet war as an unnecessary minute of large transformation.
Prof. Gracian Cimek
photo of wikipedia
Think Poland, No. 17-18 (27.04-4.05.2025)
