The College of Cardinals can be divided into 3 basic factions in 2025: "conservative", progressive and diplomatic-curial. In the erstwhile text, I described the actions of fresh Sankt Gallen, which would reflect on the fundamental core of the progressive faction. Today, I will look at the conservative faction.
At first, the essential explanation: belonging to the Cardinal's "conservative faction" does not should be associated with authentic conservatism or any more traditionalism. Cardinals from this faction are simply powerfully opposed to the extremist agenda of the progressive faction, for various reasons. At the same time, they are not supporters of Pietro Parolina, who dominates the diplomatic-curial faction. This makes them able to work together – and they actually do, creating a circumstantial block. The “conservative” faction has about as much in common with actual conservatism as the Law and Justice as a whole. Yes, there are right-wingers – but there are besides liberals of the "free march". This is so a contractual, alternatively political word for a group of cardinals, alternatively than a description of their actual doctrinal position.
The ‘conservative’ fraction is divided into 3 subgroups.
The first are "traditional" cardinals who designate the "right wing" of this faction. It includes purples specified as Robert Sarah of Guinea, Gerhard Müller of Germany, Raymond Burke of the United States, and Will Eijk of the United States. These cardinals do not have much chance of being elected, but may be in discussions before and at the conclave an crucial voice, pointing to doctrinal and moral principles.
The second sub-group is the Conservatives of the 21st century, i.e. people who want to "preservate" the conventional form of the Church, but with any openness to change and no tendency towards counter-revolution. The most celebrated example of specified an attitude is Pope Benedict XVI and it can be said that he sets the profile of this group. It includes specified people as Swiss Cardinals Kurt Koch and Paul Tscherrig, German purple Rainer Maria Woelki, American Timothy Dolan, Congolese Fridolin Ambongo Besungu, and Pierrmatista Pizzaballa from Jerusalem.
The 3rd group are cardinals, whom we would associate alternatively with the liberal side, but who in the present situation are determined to argue Cardinal fresh Sankt Gallen. According to my information, they include Austrian Christoph Schönborn (does not vote, but plays a immense function in preconclave meetings) or Angelo De Donatis.
It is said that specified a conservative faction can number on at least 43 votes. If it inactive had any support, it could have a full of 45 ‘sharvest’ – and thus constitute a blocking minority. By gaining specified a minority, the conservative faction could block the candidate fresh Sankt Gallen.
Who does the conservative faction place on?
Everything indicates that 1 of its main candidates may be Swiss Kurt Koch – at the same time the axis of this faction and its main organizer. Kurt Koch was very liberal in his youth, even stronger than, for example, Józef Ratzinger. He considered the ordination of women and the loosening of celibacy. As the years passed, and obtaining successive offices – the bishopric of Basel, later the prefectures in the Pontifical Council for Unity – departed from the erstwhile progressive line, entering alternatively the model of reasoning appropriate to Benedict XVI. At the same time, Kurt Koch seems indeed to be a man of religion – praying, profoundly respecting the Eucharist.
Koch worked alongside Francis as the prefect of the mentioned Council, later converted to Dycasteria. You can charge him with that. On the another hand, he not only criticized many times, but besides intervened on the German Synodic Way. He blocked the intercom for Protestants and stopped plans for the extremist democratisation of the German Church. By fresh Sankt Gallen is treated as an opponent. Unfortunately, in 2015, he authorized a paper entitled “For the gifts of grace and the calls of God are irrevocable” in which he included an highly softened teaching of the Church about the evangelization of the Jews, indicating that any organized effort to convert them to religion in Christ should be removed. The paper does not claim that the Jews have their own way of salvation, indicating that Christ is besides salvation for them. However, it is not known how this would be done in practice with respect to the "blockage" for the structural evangelization efforts of the church.
If Kurt Koch had become Pope, there would have been no counter-revolution, but the Church would have entered much calmer waters. Despite the shortcomings, in the present climate it could bring distant many good things. However, it does not seem that Kurt Koch, as a alternatively uncharismatic Swiss with any wellness defects, could actually gain a majority on conclaves. Rather, it can service as a ‘flag’ around which the conservative faction will gather, in order to keep the progressive candidate from Marx and Hollerich. Later, the conservative faction could put on another candidate. Who, it is not rather known: there is an information chaos here, which may affect a deficiency of 1 choice. I pointed out above that the conservative faction is more in opposition to fresh Sankt Gallen than a affirmative plan. As a result, after obtaining the mark of “mistake” of the Sanktgalleński, the conservative faction can break apart. A crucial part of it can simply leave it, supporting the candidate, who will exhibit the curial-diplomatic faction Pietro Parolina.
Another anticipation is to choice from the conservative faction a different cardinal than Kurt Koch, who could number on wider support for various reasons. It is sometimes said that it could be a Pizzaballist from Jerusalem. It is Italy with alternatively conventional views, critical of LGBT ideology or synod madness. However, Pizzaballa is 61 years old. The Cardinals may find him besides young. Furthermore, his alternatively authentically conservative profile can act as a deterrent and make it uncheckable.
Then we would return to the script of fragmentaryization of the “conservative” faction, which would later be divided into 2 basic groups: traditionalists and conservatives in the spirit of Benedict XVI and centrists with a push towards liberalism in the spirit of Christoph Schönborn.
A akin process could take place in a progressive faction that would divided into a “hard core” represented by Marx, Tagle or Grech and “moderate revolutionaries”, specified as Jean-Marc Aveline or Jean-Paul Vesco or William Goh. These others could support the candidacy put forward by the curial-diplomatic faction Pietro Parolin, which, however, would not should be Parolin himself, but alternatively individual whom he anoints to his favorite.
As a result, the conservative faction would not accomplish "positive" targets, but simply the "negative" objective, which would destruct the fresh Sankt Gallen's activities. It's not much – but it's good.
Of course, we should pray that cardinals choose 1 of the fewer cardinals truly close to Catholic Tradition, specified as Raymond Burke, Robert Sarah and Gerhard Müller. Due to the dominance of the College of Cardinals by purples with a more revolutionary attitude, however, this seems very dubious. However, this does not mean that the thing is excluded. It must be remembered that political force besides plays a major function in the conclave. Under Donald Trump's rule, their character changed substantially in relation to what was inactive in 2013. This can lead to any surprises – besides in a truly conventional spirit.
Paweł Chmielewski
