In the municipality of Dubiche, in which I live, the first circular of presidential elections won – as we predicted with Wojciech Siegień – Sławomir Mentzen. The media has already started explaining this phenomenon, and Mentzen's uncle will be relieved. and points to ‘visitors’. due to the fact that there's no mystery here. A full of 1003 ballot cards were issued in 3 regional committees, 247 people voted on the basis of certificates, inactive more than a 100 had already signed up for the voter list by mCitizen. This gives about 1 3rd of the votes of people outside the municipality.
No, it's not tourists (although there have been cases like this). They're soldiers who have a base in Dubai to patrol a border fence. For a tiny and even celebrated for having 1 of the smallest population of a agrarian municipality, these fewer 100 people in uniform make a immense statistical difference. The consequence is that Mentzen won 326 votes here, Rafał Trzaskowski 205, Karol Nawrocki 156, and Grzegorz Braun 98. It is the only municipality in Poland where the Confederate candidate won in the first circular of the presidential election.
But even in specified a tiny municipality there are differences in the distribution of votes depending on the committee. And we have three. Where soldiers voted (their many presence at the urn is confirmed by the members of the committee), i.e. in the church Dubiches themselves, Mentzen won more votes than Trzaskowski from Nawrock together. But already in Stary Kornin Rafał Trzaskowski jumped Metznen with 1 voice (37 to 36), and Hołownia managed better than Braun (24 to 21).
In the 3rd peripheral commission in our municipality, in Wojnówka, which covers the village of the nearest border with Belarus, it becomes even more interesting. Trzaskowski won, followed by Mentzen, but then besides Holovnia and Biejat, and only Karol Nawrocki behind them. If our municipality had elected the president of Poland, Karol Nawrocki would not have entered the second round.
The military wants to beat migrants, not fight Putin
There is no moral in this story, but there are any disturbing conclusions that the present government should take to heart. The election consequence from the commune of Dubiche Cerkiewne does not say much about the electoral moods of its inhabitants, but much about the condition of the Polish army. Well, we may have the largest army among EU countries and we spend the highest percent of GDP on defence in this group, but what if this army, which is to defend us from Putin, is pro-Russian?
Mentzen's advanced score combined with Braun's performance in the Church Dubichs shows that individual representatives of the force formation, which is to defend Polish statehood, are hostile to many of its elements and will gladly support their dismantling – for example in the area of public services. Mentzen did not mention much in the run about defence, possible war with Russia, or the backing of the army, but if wellness and education are to be for money, why not privatize security? Especially since the Confederacy promotes the universal right to have weapons.
What war with Russia! Mentzen, during the campaign, openly said that Ukraine should make concessions, and Putin and I should get along. Apparently, it's consistent with morale stationed at the border of soldiers. The support for Mentzen would indicate that they are closer to the thought of war with migrants and activists defending human rights than to war with authoritarian regimes that pose a real danger to Poland. And that they do not realize that the failure of Ukraine, including unfair peace through "agreement with Putin", is the biggest threat to the Polish state in the coming years. Bigger than those fewer Syrians and Ethiopians on the another side of the border fence.
Budget for privatisation
I presume that the pro-Russian sentiments among soldiers, revealed on the example of the results in the Church Dubichs, are not always conscious, but it does not take strong heads to announcement that the Confederate with Braun offers the same model of the state and society, which functions east alternatively than west of Poland. It's a model based on xenophobia, misogyny, ubiquitous hostility, murderism and violent blackmail. By the way, a model that rewards the rich and conducive building of an oligarchy system, which brings the mediocre to the function of "gun meat" – whether virtually in war, as Putin does, or in an economical sense, where spaupers are needed to sustain oligarchy fortunes. It is besides a model that breaks with existing alliances, moves Poland out of the European Union and cuts off support for Ukraine, and thus pursues the strategical objectives of the Kremlin. So we see, on the example of Dubicz, that the intellectual Polish soldier is not respect for the regulation of law and liberal democracy, but praise for fascist forces.
So we have a paradoxical situation, and under another conditions possibly even fun. Soldiers, or a budgetary, in the elections advocate privatization, deregulation and liquidation of the budgetary sphere. Additionally, the army has been generously financed in fresh years due to the threat of Putin and Lukashenko's regimes, but Polish soldiers, those arrogant defenders of the Polish routing, who are stationed in Dubai, do not seem to support the Polish state's rations and like to get along with dictators. Additionally, as a force formation with a monopoly on the usage of weapons, they see Poland as a place where weapons can be carried by anyone. Indeed, the class consciousness is low in the Polish army and the mediocre polytruds.
In the parliamentary election 2 years ago, the safety vehicle did not deliver The PiS's 3rd term, and now does not deliver presidential elections to the ruling coalition, which took over the flexing manner under the border barrier and photo-ops against the tanks. It is an crucial conclusion for both parties of the Polish duopol, that as long as the warm words about the heroism of the soldiers were not said and the current Prime Minister, as long as the ego of the boys and girls in uniform was not pumped by the erstwhile and current Minister of National Defence, as long as there were no increases and additions, as long as the fences and the Shield of the East were not built, the soldiers would pay dividends from this full investment and so would pay Mentzen with Braun.
Uniform is not behind Tusk and Kosiniak
About a year ago, Prime Minister Donald Tusk, accompanied by ministers Semyoniak and Kosiniak-Kamyszka, came to Dubicz Church to meet with the military and to hold a press conference on the attack on the soldier. Then they forgot to meet the residents, the government organization did not even notify the mayor of its visit. Now they should be asking themselves if this strategy paid off, due to the fact that they may have stood a wall behind the uniform, but the uniform didn't stand behind them. And the inhabitants are disappointed and do not believe that militarization of the region will make it milk and honey flowing.
Listen to the east Block podcast:
What was to be political gold one more time became a burden. The Staff of Rafał Trzaskowski, placing safety on the main subject of the run and making rhetorical promotions aimed at Confederate voters, did not draw any conclusions from the failure of the PiS in 2023. It is unusual that they did not announcement that the large mobilisation during the parliamentary elections was not built around fear of migration, demonstration deportations and the taking of benefits to Ukrainian mothers, and about urgently expected changes in social issues specified as improving the quality of education and wellness protection, women's rights, including access to abortion, equality against LGBT rights, the defence of nature against armed exploitation in the face of climate change, and yet a fair migration policy that does not ignore human rights.
Maybe it's time to take care of those things. If there is an chance at all, due to the fact that the triumph of Rafał Trzaskowski seems questionable from today's perspective.
