The real property marketplace in Poland faces serious challenges that may lead to a crucial collapse. According to expert analyses PKO Bank Polski, the future of the Polish housing marketplace is uncertain. High interest rates, rising construction costs and demographic problems can effectively undo the dreams of many Poles of their own “M”.
High interest rates stifle the lending market
One of the key problems that affected the availability of apartments in Poland are record advanced interest rates. In January 2025, the NBP’s main mention rate is 6.75%, which makes mortgage credit costs 1 of the highest in Europe. By comparison, inactive in 2020 the rates were only 0.1%which allowed many Poles to realize their dreams of their own home.
Interest rate increases translated into a decrease in the average Pole's creditworthiness by about 40%. According to PKO BP data, in 2024 the number of recently granted mortgage loans decreased by 52% compared to 2021. Young Poles, especially those entering the labour market, are increasingly giving up buying housing, choosing rental as the only available option.
Demographic focus: an ageing society
Poland is besides struggling with demographic problemswhich in the long word may affect request for housing. According to CSO data, the population in Poland will decrease by 2.5 million By 2050, which puts the cost-effectiveness of investment in fresh residential buildings at stake.
An additional problem is the declining number of young people. In 2024, the share of people aged 20-34, who are the main buyers of housing, was only 20% population, which is the lowest consequence in decades.
Housing prices: are we facing a fall?
Although many experts speculate that housing prices in Poland they will start to fall, reality turns out to be more complicated. In 2024 the average price of square metro in Warsaw was PLN 14 500, which means an increase by 8% compared to 2023. However, in cities specified as Łódź and Katowice prices are starting to stabilise, which may be a sign of an upcoming correction.
PKO BP forecasts that in 2025 housing prices may fall by 5-10 %, especially in smaller towns where the request for real property is much lower. At the same time, in large cities specified as Warsaw, Kraków or Wrocław, prices can stay unchangeable or even somewhat increased, due to the continued advanced interior migration and limited supply of construction land.
Construction costs increase, developers in crisis
One origin hindering the improvement of the real property marketplace is the increasing costs of building materials And labor. According to the data of the Polish Association of Construction Employers, in 2024 steel prices increased by 12%and the cost of cement increased by 9% compared to the erstwhile year.
The rising costs force developers to reduce the number of investments made. In 2024 the number of housing buildings started decreased by 25% compared to 2022, which may further reduce the availability of housing in the primary marketplace in the future.
Government support programmes – is that enough?
In fresh years, the Polish government has introduced a number of programmes to support young people in purchasing housing. 1 of them is the programme "First apartment” which allows you to get mortgage payments. In 2024 the program benefited more than 30,000 familiesBut it's inactive a drop in the sea of need.
Experts point out that the key problem of these programmes is their limited scope and that they do not address fundamental problems specified as advanced credit costs or the deficiency of affordable housing.
What next with the Polish housing market?
Perspectives for the Polish real property marketplace are uncertain. If interest rates stay advanced and demographic problems deepen, the marketplace could be in a major crisis. On the another hand, a fall in housing prices in any regions could be an chance for those who could not afford to buy their own place so far.
The future of the housing marketplace in Poland will depend on many factors, including monetary policy, economical situation and the effectiveness of government support programmes. 1 thing is certain – we are facing a period of major challenges and dynamic changes.
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There's a housing disaster coming up. Bank PKO BP revealed forecasts
