A year ago, before the attack on Ukraine, the West started an economical war with Russia. Her main goal was to cut off the enemy from the proceeds of the trade with the world. No way.
On Russia the West moved with evidence numbers of strokes, bans, blockades of individuals, institutions, businesses, full sectors of the economy. Attacking for the first time specified a large economy, he imposed 11,000 fresh sanctions (totality reached 13.7 thousand). This is much more than was imposed on all another countries in the world. specified a volley should wipe out all economy. However, Russia has sustained the impact. As our neighbors say, “not the 1 who wins, who will strike a stronger blow, but the 1 who will endure more.”
First of all, the financial sector was hit, cutting Russia off from global (read western) capital. But besides robbing it from half of the abroad currency reserves ($300 billion, or half the value of the Polish economy), gathered in the West. They were created from immense export surpluses, but were blocked, now moving on to their confiscation. Clean robbery in broad daylight.
The first strike caused shock – a sharp fall in the value of the ruble, mass acquisition of goods and products needed in the crisis. The president of the United States was already pleased that "the rubel was turned to ruin". In addition, deliveries of vital products from the West were discontinued. The increase in the cost of surviving was shocking, but the reaction was rapid. More than 300 different regulations have been introduced (tax and credit holidays, preferential debt rates, ban on taxation checks on entrepreneurs), but the course has been stabilized and the ruble has been greatly strengthened. This was due to the operation “gas per ruble” which was the first winning counteroffensive in this economical war.
After a year summarizing the results of this year's battle, we see how excellent Russia has achieved the most crucial indicator of economical competitiveness, the alleged "current account". This is the difference between the money that comes into the country and the money that comes out of it as a consequence of trade, investment and fees (e.g. abroad investors' profits). And it was absolutely sensational in 2022 – Russia recorded a affirmative consequence of $227 billion. It's huge, it's over 12% of Russian GDP, it's better than the best years of Chinese exports. The year before that was besides not bad, but only USD 122 billion was achieved. Let us remind that we have a permanent current account deficit (US$4.5 billion in 2021), which means that money is inactive leaking from Poland.
Russia's current account of fresh years (Atlantic Council graphics)
So the West failed to push Russia into an economical autary, to isolate it commercially from the world. Trade, heavy hit by sanctions, returned to pre-war levels after respective months. As a result, it was the year of the largest Russian export profits in history. Due to the destabilisation of global markets by sanctions, speculation has raised the prices of natural materials enormously. This brought powerful money to the Russian economy, which could rapidly redirect to the new, "friendly" markets in Asia, Africa and South America.
In Russian trade, the share of Western countries shrunk, but others took their place: China, India, Turkey, post-Soviet countries. Russia's exports failed to block, despite efforts, the force and blackmail of Washington (but besides the Union). These countries did not want to accept the function that Europe played – a patted on the shoulder of a younger partner who takes on the costs of the trade war against Russia. The turnover with them increased sharply, for example trade with China increased by 30% and reached $190 billion. And as with Russia, exports were much higher (114 billion) than imports (76 billion).
These countries not only took over exports from Russia, they besides started selling to Russia, frequently what was sanctioned in the west. The mechanisms were rather simple, starting always with specified actions. Europe's exports to Russia decreased by half (from €70 billion to 36 billion for 3 quarters), but doubled to the erstwhile USSR countries (from €13.7 billion to €20.3 billion), and from these countries to Russia besides increased by 9.4 billion. Simple? That's how you always avoid sanctions and trade blockades. So the economical Blitzkrieg failed to win with Russia. "The foundations of the Russian economy (and the Russian Federation too) proved to be much more solid than anyone thought. Even, perhaps, we ourselves" – president Putin stated with a large deal of reflection.
The West lost the battle, but the conflict will proceed and its escalation is inevitable.
Andrzej Szczęsniak
photo of kremoln.ru
Think Poland, No. 7-8 (12-19.02.2023)
