Warnings, or even warnings, from Ukraine ?! According to Ukrainian analyst: Poland, it is simply a possible “buffer region 2.0”
In Poland, the election run for president is coming to an end. Its uniqueness is that candidates compete against each another in the fight for voters' sympathy, practicing anti-Ukrainian and anti-German rhetoric. It turns out that specified slogans have an amazing mobilizing effect and act as the most apparent marker of division into “its” and “foreign”. The analysis of the positions of the candidates for the president paints a disappointing image not so much for Ukraine as for the future of Poland. It seems that the neoconservative revolution that marches through the planet is able to divide Polish society into various implacable camps, in which not only conservatives and liberals will clash with each other, but besides different interior groups – both in 1 and the another camp.
It has long since stopped to be amazing erstwhile right-wing populists, nationalists, conservatives and Eurosceptics repeat Putin's main postulates. Here, "the kinship of souls" is obvious. Even if in practice the Polish conservative environment is fiercely anti-putinian. However, the top concern is the anti-Ukrainian and anti-German moods of Polish voters, for which even liberals and centrists must fight. A very dangerous signal was, for example, the words of Rafał Trzaskowski, associate of the Civic Platform of Prime Minister Donald Tusk and presidential candidate for the government during the debate, where he stated: "Since I worked in the EU, in the European Parliament, I have clearly said that Russia is simply a threat and Ukraine should be a buffer zone". I would like to stress that specified a request was expressed by the main challenger to the office of president of Poland.
Breaking Relations
This means that Ukraine, even if there is simply a truce, is doomed to be a barrier to the life of Poles. That Poland does not see Ukraine as a full associate of the EU, nor under the NATO safety umbrella. Ukraine is attributed to the function of eternal hostage of its geographical location. Don't let him capitulate, due to the fact that that would mean his automatic death. And so you can afford to play the function of a large Western master, whose grace you inactive gotta earn. Recognising all historical errors and not volunteering for EU membership, due to the fact that this is already unwanted competition. Why exposure yourself to competition if you can prevent entry?
Similar trends began to gain strength after the threat of full takeover of Ukraine by Russia disappeared. As long as there was specified a threat, Poland showed itself as the best neighbour who honestly accepted hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees: women, children, aged people. He provided them with shelter and social assistance. Apartments, schools, kindergartens. He took them to his families. There seemed to be no return of historical disagreement. But as shortly as the Armed Forces of Ukraine went into the offensive, they liberated the Kiev region, regained Cherson and carried out a successful operation in the Kharkiv region, and president Volodymyr Zelenski managed to make a fresh global proukrian coalition, Poland became noticed as their experts have noticed.
Parliamentary elections besides played an crucial function erstwhile Poland fell into chaos in the name of political mobilization. It's achieved incredible polarity. other political camps virtually attacked each another with rage. Historical arguments were reused. Opponents accused them of being besides lenient to “historic criminals” and to anyone who always committed a crime against Poles. Unfortunately, it was a direct way to strengthen anti-Ukrainian and anti-German rhetoric.
Nature of historical claims
As it turned out, whenever past was discussed, the causes had to be looked for in the present. The "historic" run against Germany was not as much a retaliation for the crimes of Nazism as it was dictated by fear and uncertainty about future existence alongside the most powerful state in the European Union. An effort of any kind to defend historical claims. An effort to halt the growth of German influence in the EU. Stopping EU improvement and preventing national governments from reducing their function and transforming the EU into a kind of superpower. The Russian-Ukrainian War only exacerbated these fears. Although it is worth noting that the erstwhile German-Russian cooperation was frightening and alarming for a reason. However, it turned out that the "Citizen's Coalition" won and together with the leftist parties was able to make a majority government.
Trump Factor
However, again during the current presidential election campaign, accusations arose against Prime Minister Donald Tusk that he was allegedly a German agent and acted solely in Berlin's interest. There was a dangerous isolationist trend, dictated by the peculiar approach of the Polish right and the "confederates" to the European Union. The Agenda did not concern the EU reform, but the opposition to it, which was manifest in the protection of circumstantial national interests. Which would straight lead, if not to the dissolution of the European Union, to its amorphous state erstwhile it would not be able to organise adequate military and political assistance for Ukraine and would definitely yield to Donald Trump in everything.
Donald Trump's origin abruptly entered the “dream” of the European kingdom. The U.S. president has begun to insist on demonstrating that if the EU does not rise, it will be condemned to be a donor of resources. European concerns and a determined readiness to accept the function of the safety guarantor of Ukraine, which has always sounded like intention but not action, have come to an end. Trump made it clear that Ukraine should be terminated as a buffer region before the Russian threat. That Europe will truly gotta intervene. And not in words, but in deeds. And most importantly, no 1 will hold peace, especially in the name of a comfortable life behind the back of bloody Ukraine.
It is only now that European Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has made a sincere statement: peace in Ukraine will bring Russia closer to the EU. In practice, this means that Europeans know that as long as the war with Ukraine continues, Russia will not dare attack the EU. And that's why they're secretly curious in keeping this war as long as possible. So this uncertainty remains. For Ukraine to proceed to bear the main blows, while Europe has in the meantime armed itself to be able to safe itself in the future if necessary. It is here that the cynicism of treating Ukraine as a buffer region is revealed.
Merza origin and trap for Tusk
The election of Friedrich Merz as Chancellor of Germany, who chose to remilitarize the country, make a powerful Bundeswehr and make a fresh axis of influence: Britain – France – Germany, adds any hope. Poland, which has so far actively opposed EU reform, is not here. Prime Minister Donald Tusk was invited to visit Kiev together alternatively to give his candidate an additional argument in the election, although his function in these 4 was alternatively slim.
Donald Tusk's political strength in this election was in a alternatively hard situation. On the 1 hand, we cannot stay distant from pan-European processes and on the other, we cannot be peculiarly enthusiastic about working with Germany. So the presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski remains a hostage of social sentiments in Poland. And as the practice shows, they are rather anti-German, anti-Ukrainian and even Eurosceptic. At least not only the voters of the Law and Justice and the Confederates will argue the strengthening of Germany's function in the EU. so Rafał Trzaskowski "paplał" about Ukraine as a buffer zone.
Assessments, scenarios and reality
The question then arises: what destiny do Polish voters foretell for their country? Many in Poland hope that their country, which took 1 of the first arms courses, will be able to defend itself appropriately in the event of a conflict. Even if NATO can't rapidly usage the 5th paragraph. any of the conservative environment is counting on Americans to build good relations with Donald Trump. Although here it is worth paying attention to Trump's policy in the mediate East – especially to agreements concluded with Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, and even politics towards Syria, where love for disobedient Israel rapidly changed into trillion contracts with Qatar.
Some Poles anticipate that Russian aggression is possible only against tiny Baltic countries, that Putin will not dare attack Poland. It would seem that Poland will win in taking the same position as in the case of the attack on Ukraine. But Ukraine was neither a NATO associate nor a European Union member. And having Ukrainian refugees was her good will. And that's where it'll become a duty. According to this scenario, Poland itself can become a buffer region – but for the same Germany.
And the worst minute in this script is the reluctance of Europeans to fight and die for their country. This besides applies to Poland itself. We may not have anyone to fight this modern weapon.
The request to change relations with Ukraine
In this context, a change of policy towards Ukraine becomes highly important. It must be said that there is besides much past in the modern politics of Ukrainian Poland. It is worth noting that until late the main obstacle was the issue of the exhumation of Polish victims. This is the only issue that gave the Polish side a moral advantage. Now the situation has changed, and if the old historical policy makers in Ukraine do not throw fresh fuel into the fire, it will fade.
As for the heroes and anti-hero of the 80-year war, there is no heroics in Ukraine anymore. At least the current government has long abandoned the historical policy of the Poroshenko era. Nevertheless, anti-Ukrainian rhetoric is ruthlessly exploited in the parliamentary and presidential elections in Poland. The explanation cannot be simple, but the trend is clear: to prevent Ukraine from becoming an EU armed vanguard, to hinder its accession to the Union, and it is desirable that it should stay a grey area in which unrest reigns permanently. I mean, a kind of “wild field” between Russia and Poland, where the latest unregistered Cossacks will halt the Russian invasion. With respect to the possible accession of Ukraine to the EU, Poland has attributed itself to the function of a mention controller of "Europeanness", itself torn between particularism and forced coexistence with Germany in the EU.
When observing the striking divided in Polish society, the unconcerned conflict of the main political camps and the dangerous growth of right-wing populists, 1 has to say: Poland has not dealt with this challenge. alternatively of joining the creation of a fresh safety architecture on the continent, strengthening the effectiveness of the EU by including Ukraine, Warsaw was afraid of its competition in the future. alternatively of strengthening its position in the EU by creating a fresh line of cooperation: London – Warsaw – Kiev, attributes Ukraine to the function of eternal pariah – the function of the grey buffer zone. possibly not realizing that Berlin's leading function in the creation of the Common European Armed Forces Ukraine will yet marginalize Poland.
Even flirting with Paris against Berlin will not help, due to the fact that Paris besides wants to be among the leaders of the fresh Europe. The isolationist script is only possible temporarily, as long as the war in Ukraine continues. But it will change immediately as shortly as the ceasefire and peace come to Ukraine. In time, Russia may decide not to repeat “Ukrainian error” and, for example, carry out the operation “Suwalski Corridor”, threatening the full safety strategy of Poland. This operation may be accompanied by threats of atomic weapons from the territory of Belarus.
Then the Western partners of Poland may besides have "no time" to gather adequate possible to engage in a serious war. This is why Poland seems to have early tried to play the function of the western afraid neighbour of Ukraine. It may turn out that it will yet scope buffer region status.
Author – Vasily Rasewicz
for: Буферна зона
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Who is Vasily Raševich?
Doctor of Historical Sciences, Specialization “History of Ukraine” (1996, Ivan Krypiakiewicz Institute of Ukrainian Studies, National Academy of Sciences), postgraduate of the Faculty of past of Lviv National University Ivan Franki (1991). The subject of the proceeding – "Ukrainian National Democratic Party, 1899-1918".
Intern at the Institute of past of east Europe University of Vienna, Institute of past of east Europe and Regional Studies of the University of Tibet (Germany). He was a scholarship holder: Constantin Jirecek (Vienna, Austria), ÖAD (Austria), Alfried Krupp von Bohlen (Germany), Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung (Germany), Gerda Henkel Stiftung (Germany), DFG (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) (Germany). Participants of technological conferences and seminars in Ukraine, Poland, Austria, Germany, France, Belgium and Israel. He participated in projects at the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute (Graz, Austria): "Kriegserfahrungen an der Ostfront des Ersten Weltkriegs im Vergleich" (The experience of war on the east front during planet War I: comparative analysis) and "Die Ukraine zwischen Selbstbestimung und Fremdherschaft 1917-1922" (Ukraine between independency and abroad domination 1917-1922).
He is the technological editor of the task "Interactive Lviv", exhibition projects and investigation in the field of public history.
Scientific interests: the past of Galicia in the 19th and 20th centuries, historical politics, memory policies and memorial sites.
Selected publications:
Memory and Monument Policy: Lviv – Chernivtsi / Chernivtsi in the context of urban processes in Central and east Europe. Chernivtsi 2008. S. 237-247.
Memory policy and overcoming global stereotypes // Historical myths and stereotypes and interethnic relations in modern Ukraine. Lviv 2009.
Habsburg for Ukraine? Wilhelm von Habsburg und Kaiser Karl I / Karl I (IV.), Der Erste Weltkrieg und das Ende der Donaumonarchie. Wien-Rom, 2007 S. 223-230.
Die Westukrainische Volksrepublik of 1918/19. // Die Ukraine zwischen Selbstbestimung und Fremdherrsschaft 1917-1922. Graz, 2011 Sonderband 13. S. 181-203.
Die Sicht von innen – Besatzungsalltag. // Die Ukraine zwischen Selbstbestimmung und Fremdherrsschaft 1917-1922. Graz, 2011 Sonderband 13. S. 325-345.
Greek Catholic clergy: political, cultural and social dimension // large War 1914-1918. And Ukraine: in 2 books. [Const. AND. Presenter; editor of V. Smoliy]. – Kiev: Klio, 2013 – Book. 1: Historical Essays. – S. 604-621. Historical essays. – S. 604-621.
Western Ukrainian People's Republic 1918-1919 / The emergence of Ukraine: Self-Determination, business and War in Ukraine 1917-1922, Toronto 2015 S. 132-155. View from the inside: regular life during business / The Uprising of Ukraine: Self-Determination, business and War in Ukraine, 1917-1922, Toronto 2015, pp. 280-298.
Church and spiritual Life // past of Lviv. T.2. Lviv, 2007. pp. 525-536. (0.7 p. L.
Economic crisis. Social problems // past of Lviv. T.3. Lviv, 2007. pp. 416-422. (0.7 p.L.)
Rassewytsch W., Zur Geschichte der Region Galizien // Deutsche Akademie für Sprache und Dichtung. Jahrbuch 2008 Wallstein Verlag, pp. 14-23.
Galician Greek Catholic clergy in planet War I: political, cultural and social aspects (in collaboration with A. Zayarnik) // Kovcheg, T. VI. force of power against freedom of conscience. Lviv, 2012. pp. 160-192. (1.7 p.L.)
Ukraine: national cinema, national narrative, requests for “correction” of past // technological diary of Ukrainian Catholic University. Journalism related to Media Communication, Tom VII, Lviv, 2015, pp. 86-101
Vasily Rasewicz is simply a leading publicist in the department of analytics information service https://lv.media/
Vasily Rasewicz besides deals with the past of the latest Ukrainian-Jewish relations. It is not excluded, but alternatively all this indicates that it is Jewish.’
His 2 lectures were presented in Russian on 14-16 September 2017 at a seminar for Israeli youth in Tel Aviv entitled "Jews and Ukrainians: Controversial issues of historical memory". The main topics of the lectures are presented below.
"Memory creators: Ukrainians and Jews in historical politics of modern Ukraine"
What is simply a memory policy? What opposing opinions and approaches be in modern Ukraine in the context of historical memory policy? Instrumentation of history: how is historical memory utilized by various political forces to advance their goals? Competition between victims and memory competition. Who are the heroes: those who killed, or those who saved another people? How did the concept of “Jewkomuna” form from the 1920s to the 1940s? The concept of “Ukrainians and Jews: always close together, but almost never together”. make a affirmative story of judaic support for Ukraine's independency in Galicia. The criticism of the concept: “Let Ukrainian and judaic historians confess each other’s sins and confess the mistakes and crimes of the people.”
“How not to offend people: Contemporary discussions on historical ethnonymes (names) of Jews and Ukrainians”
(choice and crowd. PZ)
