The Confederation of the Polish Crown, Grzegorz Braun, achieved 10.9 percent support in a survey conducted on 18-20 September 2026, gaining 4.1 percent points in 2 weeks. Only 2 percent points are lost to the Confederation. The consequence shows the expanding power of the right side of the scene, although its breakdown can give power to the left and liberals.
Crown with the highest growth in the study
Newest United Surveys by IBRiS poll for Virtual Poland gives the Confederation of the Polish Crown 10.9 percent support. This is an increase of 4.1 percent points comparative to the survey in early September and the biggest change to plus in the full ranking. The Confederation gained 12.9 percent, losing 2.2 percent points. The difference between the 2 formations shrunk to just 2 percent points.
First place was taken by the Civic Coalition with a consequence of 31.5 percent, higher by 1.3 points percent. Law and Justice fell to 17.2%, or 2 points percent. Left gained 8.8% and recorded an increase of 2.2 percent points. Hypothetic improvement Plus Mateusz Morawiecki reached 5.3 percent.
Under the threshold there would be PSL with a score of 3.8 percent, organization Together with 3.2 percent and Poland 2050 with only 0.5 percent. The survey was conducted with CATI and CAWI methods on a example of 1000 people. The poll is simply a photograph of moods, not a forecast of the result of the election, but specified a clear shift cannot be shed with a decision of arms.
Right side strong but divided
The NCC and the Confederation have a full of 23.8%. This is more than the consequence of the Law and Justice and even more than the sum of support for the Law and the Hypothetical improvement Plus, amounting to 22.5 percent. Data shows that a crucial proportion of voters are looking for a tougher representation to the right than erstwhile major parties. However, the survey itself does not explain the motivation of the respondents, so the causes of growth must not be presented as settled.
There's a political effect. The Confederation of the Polish Crown increasingly emphasizes its own subjectivity, and the Confederate can no longer treat Grzegorz Braun's group as a margin. Competition for a sovereign vote takes on real weight. From the point of view of the Polish right, fragmentation remains the problem, which can turn a advanced aggregate consequence into a deficiency of ability to make a government.
Mandates show the crash price
According to the simulation described by Virtual Poland, KO would have gained 192 tickets, PiS 95, Confederate 66, KKP 53, Left 39, and improvement Plus 15. KO and Left would have precisely 231 tickets together, which is the minimum majority in the Sejm. The 4 groups included in this simulation in the widely understood right-hand side, the PiS, the Confederate, the KKP and the Plus Development, would rise 229 mandates. 2 would be missing.
This calculation was based on prof. Jarosław Flis' calculator, which distributes support between 41 districts based on the structure of erstwhile elections, and then uses the D'Hondt method. This is respect, not a ready map of the future Sejm. However, it shows the mechanics that the Polish voter should know: the government rewards effective lists and punishes the scattering of votes.
A akin layout of the right side appeared already in another studies. The August OGB survey indicated the simultaneous growth of the Confederate and Crown. Today's KKP consequence is so an crucial signal, but only further measurements will show whether the 4.1 percent point jump will be a permanent change.
At stake is the ability to govern
For Poles, satisfaction with increasing posts of 1 organization is not the most important. It is at stake to translate the votes demanding state sovereignty, household protection and economical freedom into a real majority. With the current simulation, the minimum KO arrangement with the Left would have 231 seats, and the broad right side 229.
The poll confirms that voters are not sentenced to the old double. It besides shows the price of organization divisions. If the groups referring to the Polish national interest fight only among themselves, the seismic arithmetic can turn decisions into the hands of the communities ready to deepen the centralization of the European Union and ideological force of the state. increasing in polls is not enough. You inactive should be able to build a power that can rule.
Source: Virtual Poland, RMF24
Source: RMF24
