Silence before the storm

We have ahead of us the II (main) phase of the large Ukrainian offensive-summer spring.

"War is only a continuation of politics by another means," wrote Prussian war theorist Carl von Clausewitz in the 19th century. By narrowing this point of view, the large long-pronounced Ukrainian spring-summer offensive besides has its political purpose. The NATO summit scheduled for 11-12 July 2023 in Vilnius is coming. The large donors of Ukraine, headed by the United States, for which immense financial resources be this state during the war with the large atomic power – Russia, and thanks to which the gifts of military equipment and ammunition wage war on Ukraine with Russia, must see the effect of their large financial effort. Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Walery Merit in an interview published today, i.e. Friday 30.06.2023 by the "Washington Post" openly talks about the massive pressures of the collective west on the offensive issue, and that he is in contact regular with the U.S. College Chair of Joint Chiefs of Armed Forces General Mark Miley.

The Ukrainian offensive has been taking 26 days, and as the Ukrainian Commander of the Armed Forces of Ukraine says, “This is not a show watched by the full planet on which you can place bets. all metre we get is the blood of our soldiers. That is why it annoys me to hear that the counter-offensive is going besides slowly.”

The Ukrainian offensive in the first phase was conducted on the Zaporozh section and under Bachmut. Especially in Zaporoż, she was drowned by Russians in blood and inhibited in the alleged cover belt. Ukrainians suffered severe losses in equipment supplied by NATO countries, a spectacular example of which was the defeat of small Tokmak. Photographs of destroyed German tanks Leopard and U.S. Army infantry vehicles Bradley 47 The Self-Mechanized Brigade revolved around the world.

The Russian “East” group , forces 58 of the National Military Army and 5 and 36 of the National Military Army stopped Ukrainian troops in position of cover. The Ukrainian forces are present inactive far from the I line of Russian fortifications, not to mention the main position, full of minefields, field fortifications and engineering obstacles built by the Russians in 8 months.

General Aleksander Romanczuk, commanding Russian forces in Zaporoż, stopped the attacking Ukrainian forces with the available frontline forces and tactical detachments, did not gotta bring into the fight strategical detachments with forces of the 8th National Army. The Ukrainians, on the another hand, introduced units from the 9th Army Corps from the alleged strategical reserve forces. The elite Ukrainian units including 128 Storm Mountain Brigade, 4th Armoured Armoured Brigade, or 47th Mechanized Independent Brigade suffered considerable losses in people and equipment.

In addition, it has been raining in Zaporozh for a week now, steppe softened and mud makes it hard to maneuver Ukrainian units equipped by NATO countries in large quantities of wheeled armored vehicles.
Under Bachmut, commanding a group of Ukrainian forces, General Alexander Syrski achieved limited tactical successes. On the flanks, north and south of Bachmut in bloody battles, Ukrainian soldiers pushed many Russian units out of position captured and held by the CZWK mercenaries ‘Wagner’. However, nowhere was the front breached, the Russian troops of the “South” group of General Sergey Kuzowlev, causing losses to the opponent left respective defensive positions and withdrew to fresh defensive lines maintaining order. General Kuzowlev's forces are fighting in parallel, besieging Avdieevka and trying to capture Marina. Only Stoic peace, individual authority and nonsubjective talents of Kuzowlev save the Russians from a deeper crisis, but they balance here on the border. The stakes will clearly gotta send reinforcements here to Kuzowlev.

Second phase of the offensive

The current position quo on the front does not satisfy the Ukrainians or donors. From 1 July, the weather will improve for a long time. average cloudiness, sun temperatures oscillating around 30 degrees. Step's gonna dry. Good conditions are coming to lead the offensive, it will be sunny summertime as it was 80 years ago erstwhile the German Wehrmacht on 4 July began a large offensive resulting in the conflict of the Kursk Bow. The battle, like the Ukrainian offensive to settle the war.
Ukrainian troops proceed to carry out field isolation missions by carrying out a series of artillery, rocket and aerial attacks utilizing maneuvering rockets and drones destroying logistics facilities and communication lines in the rear of the Russian group north of Crimea, which confirms the further phase of the offensive in this operational direction (Zaporzeże and confederate Khersonszczyzna).

What awaits us in the coming weeks – hypotheses.

According to all the signs in heaven and earth, the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the first half of July will advance to the correct offensive on respective operational directions.

The main directions of attack will be two. First of all, the completed “Taurida” group in Zaporozh will bring all forces of the 9th Army Corps into the fight against Russian forces already weakened by 4 weeks of fighting of the Russian “East” group.

The second main attack will fall on the forces of General Kuzowlev at Bachmut, I anticipate that it will be here that the 10th Army Corps units will "flow". The reflection of Bachmut before the NATO summit would be a propaganda success perfect material for the 72nd Center for the intellectual Combat of the Ukrainian Army.
Ancillary Ukrainian attack will fall on the Russian forces of General Oleg Makarewicz – the group “Dniepr”. The captured base on the Days close the Antonowski Bridge is the prelude to this operation. There will besides be a risky landing operation at the Zaporoska Power Plant, for which the public is prepared with ongoing Ukrainian maneuvers related to the elimination of the effects of the atomic detonation on this power plant.

The second auxiliary Ukrainian attack will bind the Russian forces at Kremina, or the Russian group of General Makarewicz's “Centre”. Ukrainians are presently leading the defensive here, and these Russian paratroopers from the 76th Pskov Air Force Division are under attack. For mass heroism in these fightings on June 29, by decree of the president of the FR, 237nd Infantry Regiment received the right to the honorary name "237 Toruń Guards Regiment Desantowo Assault", as the unit inherits the traditions of 237th Regiment which in 1945 liberated Toruń from German occupation. Russian sources already signal the influx of respective fresh Ukrainian brigades.

Diversified operations will besides be carried out in the north in the Sumi region, which indirectly signals General Serhij Najew, appealing on June 29 to residents to evacuate from the endangered village, and this is simply a general who is the commander of the Joint Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Anyway, we have an highly bloody summertime ahead of us and the main phase of the Ukrainian offensive.

KP

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