Krystian Kamiński
On Tuesday, American-Ukrainian talks were held in Saudi Jeddah. The Americans represented the same lineup that began negotiations with the Russians, which is simply a certain success of Kiev, makes it a organization to the "strict diplomacy" almost a period after the start of the negotiation process between Washington and Moscow. It's a way out of the gap that Volodymyr Zelenski himself dug up in the White House.
The post-talk announcement speaks of agreeing to ceasefire on land, sea and air for 30 days. In turn, the US declared an immediate resumption of military aid to Kiev: material and intelligence. The truce is treated as allowing intense negotiations to establish a permanent cessation of the war. The White home expresses expectations of Moscow to rapidly enter into negotiations on this matter, in the background there is an chance to meet at the Putin-Trump summit. You can see the concessions of the Ukrainians due to the fact that they agreed to a truce in 3 domains of combat. In return, however, they obtained the thawing of all military support. And in my opinion, more crucial than material support, arms supply, is intelligence support in the field of awareness and its background, thanks to American satellites and another sensors. This is crucial for Ukraine's resilience from the first hours of Russian large-scale invasion.
Nevertheless, the main problem remains for Ukrainian leadership the political and military shortages of surviving power. As this war has shown, despite all technological and tactical innovations, the basic request for a battlefield, much widened into the depths, is appropriate saturation by foot. Regular war remained a mass war in this sense too. The misunderstanding of this at the time of the first invasion, undertaken by the Russians with ridiculously thin forces, cost them those large casualties they had already suffered.
There are already problems with mobilization in Ukraine, which is more and more like the brand. 30 days of truce are needed more by Ukrainians than by Russians, which signals Moscow, considering the possible consent to temporary ceasefire as its concessions.
The U.S. and Ukraine negotiating teams besides declared an agreement on the swift signing of the agreement on the exploitation of mineral resources and parts of Ukraine's infrastructure by Americans. Trump alluded to the fact that after Zelenski's first rejection of her, as a consequence of an argument in the White House, the conditions were further tilted towards satisfying American interests.
Ukraine lost its occupied areas in Russia. I don't think their retreat in the Kursk Oblast was mainly due to Kiev's diplomatic calculations or Washington pressure. It was alternatively a consequence of the improvement of the military situation – Ukrainian positions in the occupied Sujan area became insurmountable, which has been visible for weeks. In this sense, its position in the negotiation process has weakened.
The advantage for Kiev, however, is that the force of the Americans may be relieved for a moment, due to the fact that the ball was kicked to half the Russians and now the White home tenant is looking at them.
Although there was no information immediately after the talks in Jeddah about the further destiny of Russia's territory, Donald Trump pointed out that the territorial issue was the subject of negotiations, but did not make it circumstantial to journalists. During his Thursday gathering with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, president Trump had already said that Ukraine had to face the actual failure of part of the territory.
The American-Ukrainian talks lasted about 10 hours. Therefore, the agenda of the talks was most likely broad and deeper than we learned from the erstwhile accounts, so their effects may inactive surprise us. Ukraine was represented in talks by the President's Office chief Andrij Jermak (actual second individual in the state), his deputy Paul Palis, abroad Minister Andrij Sybiha and Defence Minister Rustem Umerov. Jermak is very influential, the second individual in the country, the delegation had, I believe, a legitimacy for far-reaching talks and declarations. Ukraine, at the price of an even deeper submission and dependence on the US, wants only to get a curtain towards Russia. Ukrainians are already faced with a dilemma between solutions, among which there is no real independent Ukraine, even from 2022.
The Russians are playing maximally for the moment, to negociate a broad and long-term regulation in Central east Europe, but I do not regulation out that they can agree to a temporary ceasefire in exchange for abolishing any sanctions, which appears in media leaks about Moscow's position.
“We agree with the proposals to end the war,” Putin said, “the thought itself is right and we support it.” The Russian president stressed that the truce would service to "eliminate the root causes of the ongoing conflict" – which, of course, refers to the Russian concept of changing power, disarming and establishing the extra-block position of Ukraine, as well as the level and kind of military presence of Americans in Central east Europe. Putin stressed that he was curious in direct negotiations with Trump, which is besides meant to keep Ukraine outside the highest level of talks. These words were made before Thursday evening gathering with U.S. President's envoy Steve Witkoff, which was expected to last an hour, suggesting that it was limited to reporting by the American state of knowing in Jeddah and proceeding the Russian counter-proposals he had to hand to Trump. After the meeting, the request for a individual gathering of the leaders of the 2 powers was stressed.
According to the leaks, the conditions of the Russians are to abolish any of the sanctions, the absence of any quota of western states in Ukraine (the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lawrow expressed it at a gathering with the OSCE Secretary-General on Tuesday), the cessation of US and another Western states' military aid to Ukraine and the immediate negotiation of a wider regional agenda. These are demanding conditions, Ukrainians will surely argue them, so Trump's position will be decided.
The U.S. president is speeding up the game for a fast solution to the conflict, not forgetting the usage of the stick against the Russians. The Treasury Department has just reported on the imposition of fresh sanctions hitting key players in the Russian energy sector – Gazprom Neft and Surgutnieftiegas – the export pillars that finance the Russian war machine. The restrictions were besides covered by 183 tankers of the alleged "shadow float" utilized by Moscow to circumvent Western restrictions. Moreover, on Wednesday, a licence for the exclusion of Russian central bank, Sbierbank and WTB from US sanctions expired, which has so far allowed respective European countries to proceed to settle for the acquisition of Russian oil. Now even this channel has been shut down. This is simply a clear signal: Washington is ready to scope for further tools of force before final decisions are made at the negotiating table.
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