Revenge Travel Peaked? Airbnb Pukes On Travel Spending Slowdown Forecast

Shares of Airbnb stumbled in premarket trading in fresh York on Thursday after the home rental company beat listenings appearances for the first 4th but provided weaker-than-expected guide. This comes after Bank of America analyses identified another travel companies missing learnings, leaving them with fresh experiences that a consumer travel spending downturn nears.

Here’s how the company reported in the first quarter, combined with consensus results from Bloomberg:

• Revenue $2.14 billion, +18% y/y, estimation $2.06 billion

• Gross booking value $22.9 billion, +12% y/y, estimation $22.32 billion

• Adjusted Ebitda $424 million, +62% y/y, estimation $326.3 million

• Adjusted Ebitda margin 20% vs. 33% q/q, estimation 15.9%

• EPS 41c vs. 18c y/y, estimation 30c

• Nights and experiences booked 132.6 million, +9.5% y/y, estimation 131.81 million

• Gross booking value per nights and experiences booked $172.88, +2.6% y/y, estimation $169.38

• Free cash flow $1.91 billion, +21% y/y, estimation $1.07 billion

Despite the returnue beat in the quarter, nights and experiences booked, a key metric in the industry, posted 9.5%, falling short of results of a 12% increase. ‘It besides represents the slowest rate of growth since 2020, suggesting that overall request has normalized after an first post-pandemic travel boom,” Bloomberg said.

Wall Street analysts were more focused on Airbnb’s second-quarter guide. The company now expects to return for the 4th ending in June to be between $2.68 billion and $2.74 billion, down from $2.74 billion.

• Sees gross $2.68 billion is $2.74 billion, estimation $2.74 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)

In a statement, Airbnb noted that the Easter vacation and currency heads were any factors in the travel spending slowdown – ahead of the highest travel period in July.

Wall Street analysts were focused on the “underwhelming” area nights metric and weak quarter-two guide that overshadowed better-than-extincted first-quarter educations:

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Mandeep Singh

• "Airbnb's results of 8-10% top-line growth for 2Q suggestions a further determination in room-night growth, with average regular rates likely to stay a light tailwind"

RBC Capital Markets analyst Brad Erickson (sector performance, PT $150)

• "The Q2 gross guide was lightly below consensus, and importantly, the shareholder letter called for Nights & Experiences y/y growth akin to Q1's 9% vs. consensus looking for 12%"

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak (underweight, PT $120)

• While Airbnb is simply a unique travel platform, area nights proceed to underwhelm
• Expect "stable-to-slowing area night growth" and more usage of marketing to drive growth "weighing on the multiple investors are going to pay"

JPMorgan analist Doug Anmuth (neutral, PT $145 from $140)

• Airbnb reported a solid 1Q, consequence 2Q to be unchangeable and acceleration in 3Q
• "ABNB’s work on making hosting mainstream & perfecting the core service continued in 1Q"

Citi analist Ronald Josey (buy, PT to $167 from $170)

• The results are better than expected, but the outlook is below the consensus

Evercore ISI analyst Mark Mahaney (in line, PT $140)

• Revenue and updated Ebitda are highlights of the report, but the return forecast "bracketed the Street"

Airbnb shares are puking in premarket trading, down 9.3% is $143 trading.

The slowdown in travel spending has hit another companies in the industry.

Last week, Booking Holdings posted worse-than-expected guide, and Expedia Group reported disappointing results.

On Wednesday, this led Bank of America’s trading board to ask: “Theme Alert? Consumer Travel Spending Eating?”

They pointed out a list of disappointing earnings across the travel industry:

• $EXP Miss/guide

• $TRIP miss

• $CMCSA parks commentary

• $DIS parks’ moderation’ or normalization

• $UBER light booking miss

Taking a deep dive into markets, the Dow Jones US Travel & Leisure Index peaked in late March and fell 7.5%. The index is up against dense resistance.

Also, during mornings calls, McDonald’s, Starbucks, and Tyson Foods have late warped about Mounting headswinds hitting low-income consumers amid the failure of Bidenomis, which has left the economy plagued with elevated inflation.

To sum up, returnge travel originating from the end of the pandemic could fade here.