Prof. Raffaele Marchetti, an expert in global relations, suggests in the U.S. magazine "The National Interest" that the Russians "bet" that the war in Ukraine will end for the fresh president Donald Trump "as satisfactory to their interests as possible". Therefore, the coming months are crucial. Territorial victories will find the form of the Russian-Ukrainian border. During this time, fierce fighting between the 2 parties is expected.
The Russians will search to get a fresh territory in Ukraine and regain full control in the Kursk Oblast of the Russian Federation. For this reason, among another things, they sought aid from North Korean troops.
Over time, this "strategic partnership" between the Russian Federation and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea is strengthening. The Koreans supply not only ammunition, rockets and another military equipment, but besides sent about 10,000 soldiers to the battlefield. Moscow will, among another things, repay the transfer of weapons technology in the future.
The prof. asks why Russia and North Korea agreed? He answers that there are respective reasons. On the 1 hand, Moscow needed additional military personnel, but she wanted to avoid the force on national conscription that has been challenged since the beginning of the war. On the another hand, losing North Korean soldiers on the battlefield is little costly politically than losing Russians.
For North Korea, sending soldiers is not a advanced cost compared to the possible benefits a country can accomplish in the form of increased military capabilities and political alliance with Russia. It is besides not a major political challenge for power to lose any soldiers due to media censorship and social control in the country. Marchetti expects Korean soldiers to fight only on Russia's territory, trying to retaliate the course circuit, which does not rise legal objections.
Due to the engagement of Kim Jong Un's troops, besides South Korea – most likely besides under force from Washington – announced its intention to increase support for Ukraine, which could contribute to the escalation of the war.
It is worth noting that as U.S. national safety advisor Jack Sullivan explained, Kiev will receive the last $6 billion from American aid before the end of Joe Biden's term. This support is intended to aid to supply Ukraine with the “potentially strongest position on the battlefield so that it will yet take the strongest position at the negotiating table.” Hence Washington's approval to usage long-range missiles in Russia.
Both 1 side and the another side of the conflict will effort to bounce extra miles in the field. They will decide on the future form of the Ukrainian-Russian border.
In the end, however, these borders may depend on the kind of safety warrant for Ukraine, which is dependent on their position on the ceasefire of Ukrainian officials.
In an interview with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Vladimir Putin said that "eventual agreements must... be based on fresh territorial realities and, most importantly, destruct the first causes of the conflict".
Kremlin politician Alexander Gabuev of Carnegie Endowment warns against anti-American abroad policy of Russia, which will not vanish due to the fact that "the fight against the West has become the organizational rule of Putin's government and has created besides many beneficiaries to abandon it".
On the side of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski's "Winning Plan" – according to a business approach – provides for an influence on the President-elect of the United States by offering the resignation of US soldiers stationed in Europe with Ukrainian forces. Otherwise, it provides for the provision of rich natural resources to western countries.
Currently, according to an assessment issued on 11 November by the Institute of War Studies (ISW), Russian forces are progressing multi-axially to the east and southeast of Ukraine. Only in October, Russian troops occupied 200 square miles of Ukrainian territory.
Sources: nationalinterest.org / russiamatters.org
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