I compose this text on February 23, 2023, the eve of the anniversary of the Russian attack on Ukraine. I think a year from the outbreak of the war is simply a good time for a small summary of the planet and interior situation, which is due to events beyond our east border. I point out that the text is my authorial political analysis and the passages concerning Russian reasoning should not be read as praise for this aggression.
After the Russian attack, many commentators wondered what the spark was, the catalyst for the outbreak of war? Of course, since 2014, both countries have been in terrible relations. Russia never recognized the coup on Majdan and the fresh squad that then came to power, additionally annexed Crimea and supported separatist states in Donetsk and Lugansk. For respective years from time to time, Ukrainians have shot down close Donetsk, and as a result, there have been frequent shootings at borders. But there's plenty of area from fighting to war. Why did the war abruptly start? present we know the answer. Most likely, the direct spark was the Kiev's willingness to join NATO, which would mean moving the borders of this pact firmly to the east and the anticipation of building US military bases under the Russian nose. It is likely that the Ukrainians besides negotiated with the Americans and the British a kind of separate military pact, resulting in specified bases being built without waiting for accession, but on this subject we have only rumors, and the interviews of all the parties strictly defender their secrets. The Russian attack was aimed at preventing both of these possibilities, forming an act of preventive war. nevertheless unusual this may seem to us, from a Russian point of view, we are dealing with a preventive and so defensive war. The situation became analogous to the 1962 Cuban crisis erstwhile the Americans were ready to attack Cuba as they detected russian missiles with atomic warheads on it. Then the power was afraid of a weaker state, which could be utilized as a rocket platform. He predicted this improvement respective years ago American analyst prof. John Mersheimer, writing that erstwhile NATO starts negotiations with Ukraine, Russia will strike. And he was right. Unfortunately.
What were Putin's goals? According to German analysts from German abroad Policy, in April 2022 – after 2 months of fighting – there was a peace agreement on the table. Under his power Ukraine was to evidence in the Constitution the neutrality and prohibition of abroad troops in its territory, and to recognise the position quo territorial in Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. The text of the arrangement was to reject Kiev behind the British whisper. Since Putin was ready to sign the agreement, it included gathering the Russian minimum targets. Neutrality + position quo boundary.
These conditions seem logical to us if we look at the way the Russians have committed aggression. They attacked from all possible directions – from Kiev to Kherson – with an army smaller than Ukrainian. The shortages were made up of multiple advantages in tanks, rockets, artillery and aviation. However, Russian forces were heavy dispersed, which forced them to fight border battles throughout the front line, as if it were not about Blitzkrieg to a certain point, but about forcing Ukraine to accept peace terms. The war all over, in fact, began with the counteroffensive of Ukrainian troops and reflection of the alleged Kharkivszczyzna. Then Putin did what he should have done on the first day: he announced a partial mobilization to offset the Ukrainian army's numerical advantage. erstwhile I compose these words, we are waiting for a large Russian counteroffensive with troops reinforced by reservists. The Moscow force show is over and the negotiation time is over. Now the war will begin.
By the way, her goals have changed. At first Putin meant the neutrality of Ukraine and the peace treaty legalising territorial position quo. presently it is about the annexation of all Russian-speaking Ukrainian lands, i.e. about 1/3 of its territory. Moscow realises that after this war there will be no Russian-Ukrainian friendship. That is why you gotta join as many lands in the Russian-speaking east as you can. The remainder of the territory is being destroyed by rocket attacks. Millions of Ukrainians fled a country whose population fell from 44 million to around 20-25. Most young people escaped, as we see on Polish streets. They fled abroad and most of them will never return. After the war, Ukraine will be a desert, where the pensioners themselves will remain, with the destroyed infrastructure, most likely deprived of east lands, for decades in debt in the US and taken for granted by Western corporations. The Russian goal ceased to be military neutralization of Ukraine, but its maximum demolition and depopulation by forced emigration.
By the way, the Western planet has been puttinized. The war and the indication of the enemy of the ruling elite always treated as an excellent pretext to limit freedom. Freedom has been questioned already in the alleged pandemic, and the mobilization of war has deepened this process. erstwhile Joe Biden gives a large speech in Warsaw about the fight against Putin for “freedom”, during this time the “Highest Time” portal shuts down. Why? That's due to the fact that we're fighting Putin for freedom of speech. due to the fact that Putin censors the Internet. Therefore, liberal-democratic states must do the same, only in the name of defending “freedom”. First, portals considered pro-Russian were censored – and no 1 protested. This came the second stage: censorship of anti-government portals, sympathetic to the Confederacy. As part of the fight against Putin in the West, therefore, it comes to its own version of putinization. Critics are blocked, fired from work, punished with KRRiT for... deficiency of registration of their channels to YT. It's like a Lukashenko chicago that will grow all month. Fighting Putin, the Western planet chose its own version of putinization.
Adam Wielomski
