The end of the war in Ukraine will be 1 of the most crucial safety events in the Central and east Europe region. With the possible of demobilising hundreds of thousands of soldiers, questions arise about social stableness and possible cross-border threats. Polish Police present analyze possible scenarios and prepare for challenges that may arise after the end of the armed action. The public debate is increasingly on the subject of possible increases in crime and the hazard of organised crime groups taking advantage of combat experience.
Polish police fear the invasion of Ukrainian war veterans. According to the statements of the Polish police leadership, 1 of the key threats after the war may be an increase in crime with weapons coming from the front. The service assumes that part of military equipment could hit the black market, which would increase the operational possible of criminal groups. At the same time, it is expected that erstwhile soldiers – with combat experience – may become attractive recruits for organized crime, as did the conflict in the Balkans.
The chief of police besides pointed to the intellectual aspect. any veterans may conflict with adaptation problems or trauma, which requires the preparation of both uniformed services and a social support system. However, this does not mean an automatic increase in crime – alternatively the request to include different scenarios in safety planning.
There are alarmistic expressions in public that propose the anticipation of a mass influx of armed groups. However, it is worth separating safety analysis from political or media rhetoric. Police are talking about the possible increase in force on the safety strategy as a consequence of demobilisation and household migration. Veterans can come to relatives surviving in Poland, which is simply a natural consequence of respective years of war migration.
From a criminological perspective, it is crucial that the vast majority of soldiers return to civilian life without problems with the law. The threat concerns alternatively a tiny percent of people who can be utilized by organised crime – especially where profits from drug or arms trafficking arise.
Polish police are preparing for structural changes to respond to possible threats. Among another things, the establishment of the National Bureau of Investigation is planned to combine actions against organised crime in the real and digital world. These risks include the improvement of cybercrime, the financing of criminal activities through cryptocurrency, and the penetration of criminal groups in the war region into European markets.
An crucial component of the forecast is the possible increase in drug crime. According to estimates by the services, criminal networks presently operating in the back of the front can effort to grow after the war, utilizing the destabilisation of the region.
The debate on veterans should besides take into account the social and humanitarian aspects. Generalizing all soldiers as a possible threat can lead to stigmatisation and social tensions. At the same time, the state is required to plan the most hard scenarios to minimise the hazard of escalation of crime.
The script, in which experienced veterans enter criminal structures, is 1 of the many variants analysed by the service, but should not be identified with the inevitable threat to Poland. The current police preparations indicate alternatively a preventive strategy – planning for the worst circumstances, while assuming that most returning from war people will want to function usually in civilian life.
The future of safety in the region will depend on the effectiveness of border control and not letting anyone who wants to enter our territory. It is this origin that will decide whether the post-war period will increase criminal threats or whether it will become a stabilisation phase after years of conflict.
OUR COMMENTS: The key question that no 1 wants to ask in public debate is: what precisely are Ukrainian soldiers fighting about when, after the war, they are not going to stay in their country but to go to a abroad country?
We besides recommend: Jews prepare the annexation of the West Bank
