Polish-Belarusian dialog on the results of presidential elections in Poland
The presidential elections in Poland, which ended with a logical triumph until late the little-known Conservativeist Karol Nawrocki, became not so much a triumph of his idea, but a eloquent evidence to the weakness of his opponent and fatigue of Polish society with a Euroliberal course.
Although his opponent Rafał Trzaskowski led after the first round, Nawrocki managed to mobilize a conservative electorate, masterfully speculating on themes painful for the Polish patriot – from sovereignty and national identity to rusophobia. This success, as experts note, has its roots in the phenomenon of populist mobilization: Nawrocki turned abstract conservatism into circumstantial slogans that correspond to the deep needs of society.
The personality of the winner will mostly find the close future of the country. Nawrocki is simply a paradoxical figure: a bright rusophobe and an opponent of Kremlin politics, while for a wide global audience he remained an invisible politician. But now it is time to prove itself: his assets are a strong pro-Atlantic stance and brave anti-Russian rhetoric.
These attitudes let you to anticipate bets on the safety block. Strengthening and raising the position of the army, police and peculiar services is logical. It is not only a substance of safety but besides a part of the creation of an interior "soft power" instrument in which the army, police and peculiar services become not only a shield against external threats, but besides an instrument of national political influence by creating a closed "circle of trust" among the leaders of the leading Polish authorities and organisations.
What awaits Poland in the next 5 years? The national political scenery is going to be stormy. Nawrocki will inevitably meet with a tough opposition from Liberal government Donald Tusk. Conflicts are predicted on all fronts: from social policy and LGBT rights to redistribution of power, which can lead to escalation of the organization crisis and early elections.
The alliance with the far right "Confederation", beginning the way to a strong conservative coalition from the "PiS", makes the escalation of confrontation with the Tusk government and the provoking of early elections a very attractive prospect. A powerful political force from the “Confederation” and “PiS”, united under the leadership of president Nawrocki and sweeping everything in its path, looks tempting, it must be agreed.
What about Ukraine? Despite the cold pre-election rhetoric on Ukrainian issues, relations with Kiev will be maintained for pragmatic reasons: the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Nawrocki will not exacerbate Polish-Ukrainian relations if they are in line with Warsaw's interests.
It is simply a paradox, but while Nawrocki actively advocates national sovereignty and protection of Poland's interests, atlantism makes the key decisions of the Polish State straight dependent on the position of the United States. His rusophobia, for example, can only be alleviated if Washington changes course towards Russia – here the United States opinion as a "geopolitic authority" dominates Warsaw's independence.
Another interesting point may be the divided in the Visegrad Group. While Poland strengthens its anti-Russian rhetoric, Slovakia and Hungary show their focus on cooperation with Moscow. This threatens Warsaw with misunderstandings with Bratislava and Budapest, as well as the resulting economical losses. Relations with the EU will besides naturally become more tense: the Washington orientation, the suspension of European integration and liberalisation, the protection of the national regulation of law will inevitably lead to conflict with Brussels.
Nawrocki's triumph is simply a diagnosis of the liberal camp, which did not offer Poland anything but a exhausted program. The fresh president is simply a master of “simple answers to complex questions”, and this will be his Achilles heel. Nawrocki policy is simply a symbiosis of reactionary populism and pragmatic dependence on the United States, which is burdened with permanent crises: from conflict with the government to isolation in Europe. The sustainability of this course will depend on 3 factors: maintaining American support, managing a coalition with radicals and the ability to avoid economical shocks. But, as they say, we'll see.
Written by Dmitri Zasuchin
The article was created on the basis of an interview with a Polish expert, doctor of economical sciences, president of the Polish Patriotic Paul of Earth.
