Currently, most Poles defy the introduction of the euro in Poland. According to the polls from the beginning of the year, entering the common currency area is supported by just a small more than 1 in 5 of our countrymen. Apparently, individual decided to change that. For we are dealing with late a strong run aimed at gold.
"The Polish government should take the course for the euro. Benefits outweigh costs – said economists – this is how the text published at the beginning of the year in George Soros "Rzeczpospolita". These advantages mentioned by the author, Piotr Skwirowski, and highlighted by experts in line with and for years, are: expanding the reliability of economical policy, eliminating exchange rate risks, lower interest rates, cheaper loans and expanding consumption, investment, abroad trade turnover, as well as competition and efficiency. "All of this translates into a boost to economical growth", adds "Rz".
However, this expert compatibility, which the paper assures its readers, is not a fact. For example, in the belief of prof. Zbigniew Krysiak from the School of Economics, the founder of the Schuman Institute of Thought, among the many benefits mentioned by promoters of the adoption of the EU currency, in fact the only real profit for Poland would be to get free of abroad currency risks, i.e. the anticipation of fluctuations in gold exchange rates.
– For many of the above mentioned [in the article ‘Rzeczpospolita’] the benefits are the other – [favourably] imports, exports, economical flexibility, the ability to catch up with strong economies specified as Germany, will not happen if we enter the euro area - considers the economist.
The prof. cites a German survey Think tankaccording to which the economy even stronger than Polish – French, Spanish, Italian – has radically lost their GDP by giving up their own money.
So what would gotta happen so that the adoption of the euro could be viewed with a clear conscience? Of course, from the point of view of the economy itself, while abstracting so far from issues specified as patriotism and state sovereignty.
– The main condition is convergence, which is to bring the basic parameters of the micro and macro economy closer to the strongest German economy – stressed prof. Krysiak. It is an opinion which many economists share, including the typical of the left-liberal camp Prof. Marek Belka, who headed the National Bank of Poland between 2010 and 2016.
Among the costs that we would bear by joining the euro area, Piotr Skwirowski mentions the failure of the anticipation of self-shaping monetary policy. By giving up their own currency, the competences in this area will pass from Warsaw – as “Rzeczpospolita” writes – “under the wing of the European Central Bank, which will take Poland’s ability to respond independently to possible currency crises”.
"It would be naive to accept that this is just 1 of the good, interesting topics for the beginning of the year," commented Maciej Wośko, head of “Bank Gazeta”. "It is simply a clear signal that pro-government media are starting a run to convince the unconvinced Poles to enter the way of adopting the European currency" - he stressed. Indeed, the action did not limit itself to 1 publication in a renowned journal. It was besides supported by “Gazeta Wyborcza” or Business Insider.
Cost-effective ‘mistake’
At the beginning of the year, the largest online search engine featured an indication indicating an alleged sharp and drastic decline in the gold course. The information was on the web for a long time. It was cited by economical portals, publishing further data that included false values.
– It was assumed in advance that this was a mistake. We're being calmed down by the finance minister that this is simply a data error. I don't know how he knows that. “At the time, Artur Bartoszewicz from the Warsaw School of Economics pointed out in an interview with Radio Wnet. – With this kind of situation – all economy and all country – Poland should immediately respond to a real verification, what happened and why, what was the real reason for it, not to pre-scenario and de facto justify a very popular portal (Google), where about 90 percent of us check currency rates – he added. However, although the Polish currency was theoretically quipped in front of investors and analysts, there was no concrete counterattack from the highest government officials.
– She was filled with uncertainty related to Polish currency. Is it not that it takes place in our heads to translate that the Polish currency is dangerous and the euro is safe? Isn't this a game to weaken the real value of gold? – Dr. Bartoszewicz wondered. In his opinion, we were actually dealing with a test terrorist attack. Since, in a short time, between 1 and 3 January, the conversation was taking place on this very day – through false data, it was possible to propose to the markets, investors, a drop in the gold exchange rate of up to 40 percent, how can we be certain that akin operations are not carried out all day, but spread over a longer period of time?
Warnings From the West
One of the hooks that the Polish fish would catch is simply a reliable “mountain of gold” from Brussels. The possible of obtaining billions of euros – whether donated or borrowed to a advanced percent – works under our conditions in the field of propaganda. It is so hard to wonder that euro-enthusiast monetaries are referring to this sentiment.
– A country without a single currency will lose part of its importance in the EU, which could translate into billions which could not be accessed without participating in meetings of the finance ministers of the euro area countries. – as quoted by prof. Witold Orłowski. It is hard not to mention here the analogy related to the past of mythical money for Poland as part of the National Reconstruction Plan. To get them, the Morawiecki government agreed to a conditionality mechanics ("money for the regulation of law"). It shortly became apparent that in the EU's dictionary "lawfulness" means absolute obedience to the dictatorship of Berlin and Brussels. Why, then, after the adoption of the euro, should these billions promoted by prof. Orłowski actually come to Poland – for example, governed by a centre-right coalition, critical of the progressive ideas of Eurocommissioners?
Stanisław Koczot, deputy editor-in-chief of the “Bank Gazeta”, observing the run for the abandonment of the gold by our state referred to the position of Stefan Kawalc, interestingly – co-author of Balcerowicz's plan and erstwhile pro-market advisor of the Citizen Platform. He is besides a co-author of a book published in 2016 with a crucial title “Euro Paradox. How to get out of the trap of the single currency".
The bachelor described France's problems by convincing that they were due to participation in the common currency. In the magazine “All the Most Important” he argued that the effort by president François Hollande to preserve the social model required a “strong pro-business approach”. ‘However, the deficiency of national currency is an obstacle to specified a change. The point is that the introduction of the needed market-based reforms first results in a simplification in demand, which gives emergence to a slowdown in the economy. If France had its own money, this recession would be balanced by the natural weakening of the currency in specified a situation, which would increase request for home goods in the interior marketplace and in export markets," we read.
Hollande's effort at economical structural changes in euro area conditions ended with a descent of more than 60 percent to just 4 in more than 4 years.
"Until the single currency was introduced, France was the leading political force in Europe. French elites, with president François Mitterrand at the head, believed that the common currency would strengthen France's economical position vis-à-vis Germany. But it happened the another way around," noted Stanisław Koczot.
Similarly, in the case of failed attempts to lift to a higher level of backward regions of Germany and France. According to Kawalc, the failure was due to the deficiency of national currency. A "controlled solution of the euro area" must so be implemented, starting with the most competitive countries, headed by Germany.
Threatened Gold
Currently, most Poles defy the introduction of the euro in Poland. According to the polls from the beginning of the year, entering the common currency area is supported by just a small more than 1 in 5 of our countrymen. Among the crucial opponents is – at least declaratively – the president of the National Bank of Poland Adam Glapiński. It has been reasonably consistent in the view that the essential condition for change is to keep the pace of growth for the next decade and to accomplish a level of earnings comparable to Western countries. The second in our realities of a colonised economy sounds, of course, like a fantasy.
In order to introduce the EU currency in our country, it is besides essential to amend Article 227 of the Polish Constitution, which states: “The central bank of the state is the National Bank of Poland. It has the exclusive right to issue money and to establish and implement monetary policy. The National Bank of Poland is liable for the value of Polish money.” A majority of two-thirds of the votes in both chambers of parliament are needed to amend the basic law. Looking at the extremist actions of Tusk's squad since the beginning of the fresh term, and on so many fronts, we can anticipate the worst. The service of substitute subjects to Poles has achieved specified a large increase in fresh weeks that it would be entirely naive to think that there is no "fat" behind it.
Roman Motoła
