Introduction and intent of the forecast
The publication “Population forecast for the years 2023–2060” prepared by the Central Statistical Office (GUS) provides an update of the erstwhile forecast for 2014–250. Since then, there have been crucial demographic, socio-economic and migration changes, which required the improvement of fresh scenarios for population development. The forecast adopted 3 scenarios – high, average and low – to present possible changes in population, age structure, fertility, mortality and migration by 2060.
Main demographic assumptions
The forecast is based on 3 key assumptions regarding demography:
- Childbirth:
- The fertility rate (TFR) in Poland has been below 1.5 for years. In 2022 it was 1.26.
- The advanced script assumes a fertility increase to 1.79 in 2060, while the low script predicts a decline to 1.19.
- The average birth age of children is besides changing, which is expected to scope 32 by 2060.
- Fatality:
- In 1991–2019, the average life expectancy increased by 6.7 for women and 8.2 for men.
- The alleged COVID-19 pandemic has led to a sharp decline in life expectancy between 2020 and 2021, but forecasts foretell a gradual return to an increase in this indicator.
- Migration:
- Forecasts presume a affirmative migration balance in the average and advanced scenario, which means that Poland will be an immigration country by 2060.
- Changes in migration movements can be crucial to stabilising the population.
Forecast results for Poland
- Population:
- In the average scenario, the population of Poland will fall to 30.4 million people in 2060 (from 37.8 million in 2022).
- In the scenario, the advanced population will be 34.8 million and in the low script it will be 26.7 million.
- Age structure:
- The ageing of the population will progress. The percent of people aged 65 and over will increase significantly, expanding the demographic burden.
- The number of children and adolescents (0-17 years) will decrease in all scenarios, but for the advanced one, where the number of people under 18 is expected to stay at a level close to 2022.
- Population at working age:
- The number of people of working age will fall by 25% in the low and by 40% in the advanced scenario.
- The demographic burden rate will increase from 70 people of non-productive age to 100 people of working age in 2022 to 105 people in 2060.
- Migration:
- Poland will be an immigration country and the migration balance will be positive, which will be crucial to combating depopulation.
- The influx of population into suburban areas around large cities will progress, expanding the suburbanisation process.
Regional Forecast
The study besides includes demographic analysis at the level of voivodships and powiats. Key conclusions of this analysis include:
- The largest decrease in population is expected in Świętokrzyskie voivodship – by 30.6% by 2060.
- The smallest decrease in the population will be affected by the Mazowieckie and Pomeranian voivodship, where the decline will be only 7%.
- Population increases happen in suburban areas around large urban centres, resulting from the continuation of the trend of suburbanisation.
Sensitivity analysis and alternate scenarios
The forecast includes an analysis of the sensitivity to changes in fertility, mortality and migration assumptions. The main conclusions are:
- A advanced script assumes crucial fertility increases and a affirmative migration balance, which may reduce depopulation.
- The low script indicates a further decline in population, with a negative migration balance and a low fertility rate.
Conclusions and recommendations
The study stresses the request for political and economical action to reduce the negative effects of demographic change. Recommendations shall include:
- Support for family-friendly policies to increase fertility rates.
- Promoting a migration policy that will attract immigrants.
- Strengthening the wellness care strategy and active ageing policies, which will be crucial in the context of an ageing population.
The forecast shows the request to realize dynamic demographic changes and prepare for future socio-economic challenges.
All available on the website of the Central Statistical Office.
