Piskorski: A black, cold gap on the map of Europe

myslpolska.info 2 years ago

With respective dozen-day intervals, Russian troops consistently carry out mass rocket firing of Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

Some even consider the war to have entered a fresh phase. Others say that all of this is the beginning of the end of the government in Kiev. Let's effort to look at Russian tactics with a sober eye, without getting into ethical considerations (from the point of view of most ethical systems almost all war is bad by definition).

In 1994, Major of the American Air Force, Thomas Griffith issued a proceeding entitled Strategic Attack on National Electrical System (Strategic impact on national electrical system). It has come to interesting conclusions, which indicate that actions of this kind do not necessarily should be effective, or at least not as effective as the organization carrying them out would have liked. Griffith actually analyzed in his work only 3 cases of demolition of about 90% of the critical infrastructure of the opponent by the Americans – North Korea, Vietnam and Iraq. He felt that the attacks on infrastructure had 4 main objectives: weakening military capacity, reducing industrial production capacity, striking the image of the authorities and reducing social sentiment. The U.S. military found that most of these objectives were only partially achieved in the cases under consideration. Conclusion: Just hitting critical infrastructure is not adequate for military victory.

Five years after Griffith's book was published, his conclusions could be reviewed. In the spring of 1999 NATO, with the United States, attacked Yugoslavia. In common usage were then BLU-114/B graphite bombsthe construction of which has enabled effective demolition of energy infrastructure. The part of Yugoslavia controlled by Belgrade was completely devastated by 3 months of shelling. The alleged Western land operation was no longer needed. Yugoslav authorities had no choice but to surrender. Further, political and diplomatic steps towards the final neutralisation and liquidation of the statehood of the South Slavic federation took place within a fewer months.

Russian shelling of Ukrainian infrastructure can so have far-reaching consequences. At the moment, it is impossible to measure their impact on morale, social sentiment and Ukrainians' attitude towards the authorities in Kiev. In addition, remember that the case concerns a country with a violent, extended apparatus of repression, primarily in the form of SBU. It was the officers of this service who tried to prevent the repression of those organizing protests against the previously established graphics of power outage in Odessa. At this stage, the Kiev government so exercises comparative control over the situation, preventing social protests.

In the military and industrial sphere, as we can imagine, Ukrainian losses are already tremendous and will proceed to increase. However, the cut-off of the arms supply chain is not possible solely by paralyzing the supply of electricity. For this, permanent harm or demolition of bridges, viaducts and roads leading to Ukraine from Poland, among others. This is not what the Russian troops have done so far. Western arms transportation for Kiev is going full steam.

Ukrainian authorities and representatives of local energy companies publically call on migrants from Ukraine to stay outside the country during the winter period, and for the others to temporarily decision to the country or even go abroad. Further degradation of critical infrastructure will so consequence in permanent depopulation, desurbanisation and disindustrialisation of the country. In the course of the following years, it will be essential for those who take political work for Ukrainian territories to bear further expenditure. Regardless of who will take that work as a consequence of the current war effort.

What does that mean for Poland? most likely another migration wave. most likely next expenses in different forms. However, it is indeed crucial to answer a somewhat different question: whether the current Russian tactics will be able to bring an end to the conflict, force negotiations on Kiev. due to the fact that from the point of view of our safety and stability, it is vital that we do not limit ourselves to the area under war. So everything that accelerates the end of the conflict is beneficial for Poland. Even if it's not good for Kiev.

Mateusz Piskorski

photo izvietia.ru

Think Poland, No. 49-50 (4-11.12.2022)

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