The PiS with the Confederacy can regulation now. Tell them to invitation the Holovnia

krytykapolityczna.pl 1 day ago

The stock of the right has gone up so much that even left-wing commentators are talking consideration about the PiS coalition with Poland 2050 as alternatively not the worst. erstwhile you see the position of the PiS-Confederation-Braun coalition, Kaczyński's alliance with Hołownia may appear as a reasonably decent scenario. He would undoubtedly have quite a few advantages against these even worse options, although he would besides have 1 powerful flaw: we would gotta watch the arrogant Simon Holovnia all day, who can be incredibly satisfied with himself even erstwhile it is explained by the mistakes and mistakes of the press conference on the night talks at Bielan. If, for a change, he had yet succeeded, the happiness painted on his face would have been completely indigestible.

However, the PiS-PL2050 coalition is only an alternate for a future term. In today's clubs do not have the essential number of MPs and MPs. An unexpected script appeared on the horizon already possible in this script – it would be adequate to invitation the Confederate to break up the current ruling majority. What's more, it's actually happened. During the vote of the alleged Housing Act, which primarily increases government backing for social construction, there was unexpected support for 2 number amendments. They passed the votes of PiS, Confederacy and Poland 2050.

Main effect Act is to increase investment in social construction – i.e. money intended mainly for Social Construction Companies (TBS) and Social Housing Initiatives (SiM) – to about PLN 45 billion by 2030. 1 tenth of this budget will be aimed at creating fresh premises for students. This is fundamentally not controversial, although it does not bring any revolution. It is about PLN 10 billion per year, which is simply a decent amount – this year's budget bill assumed that only PLN 4 billion was allocated to all housing (taking into account the inactive on the table of the debt subsidy scheme), and on the way any of this amount was allocated to the flooders.

The increase in investment is so real. The question is whether these funds will actually be spent. The municipalities can already benefit from the alleged Fund for Subsidy from the Bank of the National Farm, covering up to 80% of the investment value. However, they do not do so, and the funds from BGK regularly stay unused in their entirety.

In 2024, somewhat more than 200 1000 apartments were put into service, which is simply a beautiful good consequence against the background of the erstwhile achievements of the 3rd Polish Republic. This brought us closer to the Jaruzelski era, which is associated with the martial law, but at that time besides a lot was built – among another things, my family's Zet property in Tychy, commissioned in 1985. In the 1980s, much more than 200,000 housing units were built annually. Initially they were not outstanding – to put it mildly – but after the first wave of thermomodernization from the 1990s they became rather pleasant places to live.

Last year's result, however, is inactive not approaching the 1970s, the alleged Game Age, erstwhile more than 300,000 apartments were built each year. Worse still, almost 2 thirds of the premises (125 thousand) were donated last year by developers who inactive have no competition on the market. Not counting each other, but here they came to a large deal of agreement, sharing the marketplace among themselves and maintaining the right price level.

Another 70,000 apartments were built by alleged individual investors, i.e. individuals for their own use. In this case, it's mostly about single-family homes. Municipal housing was created only 1913, and it was inactive an increase of more than half compared to 2023. Cooperative dwellings were created little than 1.3 thousand, and corporate... 74.

In 2024 the Fund for Subsidies, which financed residential municipal investments, had PLN 1.6 billion available. More than PLN 1.1 billion of applications were eligible for support. At the end of last year, the Fund inactive had an undistributed amount of over half a billion zlotys. Even a multiple increase in the amount of subsidies provided for in the fresh Act does not necessarily mean that PLN 10 billion per year is actually spent on social and municipal housing, as it takes 2 to tango.

It is simply a secret to the polysinnel that local authorities consciously do not burn to build municipal housing. If they're buying, it's for an alibi – it'd just look like they're doing something. Unofficially, they admit that this is simply a problem for them, as most residents do not appreciate these time - consuming and costly investments. For this simple reason, that only a tiny part of the local community uses them, while the costs are borne by the full – not only financial, but besides in the form of inconvenience due to ongoing constructions. Of course, it is the opposite, due to the fact that everyone benefits at least indirectly, erstwhile competition arises for developers and pensioners in the form of social, municipal and low-cost rental housing – but local governments stick to their own.

Localists are not inclined to make the resources of the municipality, alternatively at its sale. It's a sale of a municipal facility, not a fresh one, they're treating it as a success. Among another things, little than a 1000 municipal housing units are usually created annually, and last year's consequence (1913), although inactive pathetic, is 1 of the best in history. As a result, the local resource of municipalities shrinks with iron regularity. By data The CSO in 2022 had little than 620,000 housing units. By 2023 it was only 603,000, and last year for the first time in past their number fell below 600,000 – it was precisely 595 thousand.

Initially, the Act provided for a complete ban on the sale of premises built by TBS and SiM, which are usually not grassroots social initiatives but the most popular form of housing by municipalities becoming their shareholders. Unfortunately, for specified a solution the majority could not be won, so it yet stood for 25 years – the Sejm decided that only after the end of that time and payment of debts incurred in BGK would be possible to privatise.

It was here that the coalition of PiS, Poland 2050 and the Confederacy operated, which pushed through amendments allowing municipalities below 100 1000 inhabitants to privatise after 15 years. Both solutions will apply only to fresh premises and not to existing ones – these can inactive be freely sold on old terms. The fresh coalition has besides voted to abolish the national minimum number of parking spaces to be respected erstwhile implementing housing investments, which is simply a good solution.

Allow faster privatisation - On the contrary. Selling premises built for public money is simply a denial of the essence of social construction. Katarzyna Pełczyńska-Nałęcz explained this solution by the fact that the anticipation of signing a lease agreement with access to ownership is intended to halt the depopulation of the province: erstwhile people are given housing stability, they will be more likely to stay in their town. but it's classical eyewash. The lease from the municipality besides ensures stability, but further sale of municipal premises will discourage local communities. Not only will only a fistful of local residents benefit from the joint funds, but in the long word the flat rented by the municipality will not become available for the next in line, but will be sold to the current tenant.

At the same time, it must be noted that the change is not large. Currently, municipalities sale their municipal resources without hindrance, and the amendment pushed through by the PiS-PL2050-Confederation coalition reduces the withdrawal period by only 10 years and only in centres under 100,000 inhabitants. Moreover, the fresh coalition has already demonstrated its inability in this first joint initiative. The amendment only amended the terms of the sale of investments built in 1 of the available programmes – reverse financing. In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of municipal investment takes place under non-refundable financing, from the above-mentioned Aid Fund, conducted by BGK. Authors and supporters of the ferocious amendment overlooked it so that it could actually be dead. Unless it's improved in the Senate.

Once again, the Confederate has proved that pushing for faulty rules is her specialty. Let us callback the compromising task in which the Confederates confused the free amount with the taxation reduction. Szymon Hołownia proved that his bloated political ambitions were completely inadequate to its real importance in Polish politics. It is clear that in fresh actions – meetings with PiS politicians, delaying the reconstruction of the government and voting in favour of number amendments – Hołownia tries to leverage its very weak position after the election.

In the fall, he will become a private MP or vice marshal at most. It is not likely that he will enter the government – it is hard to tell what he would do there. However, in the government you gotta work on circumstantial cases, stupid performances are not enough. The holovnia thus showed the coalitionists that his group had an alternative, and he himself could be a ‘player’ (it is incorrect that the weak one), so 1 has to deal with him – otherwise, together with the right will lead to the overthrow of the current majority.

Would Poland 2050 be ready for a formal coalition with the Confederation? quite a few them most likely do. The Confederacy is now powerfully "mentioned", becoming rather virulent for economical liberals from Poland 2050. And there's plenty of them. Michał Grammar, Mirosław Suchoń, Ryszard Petru or Sławomir Ćwik would easy get along with mentalists, they would just gotta pretend that they do not see sidetracked nationalists. However, it would undoubtedly be an operation calculated only until the end of the word of office, as most of this fistful of voters, which is inactive in Poland 2050, would not accept specified a volt. Only that the extension of the mandate is already highly improbable for them.

PO politicians do not burn to give good seats on the lists to refugees from another sinking boat. After all, already they must share them with the politicians of Modern, Green or Polish Initiative, and the polling trends indicate that in 2 years' time there may be less places than in the current term.

The polls of the Polish 2050 itself are already a nightmare. According to the latest OGB poll, Poland 2050 presently supports 3.4 percent of voters, so the organization fell below not only the electoral threshold, but even the results of the Crown Grzegorz Braun and organization Together. The creation of a coalition with the PiS and the Confederacy could already be the last chance for the politicians of the Holownia group to mean something in this policy for a moment. To exert greater influence, to be able to exercise government privileges, from journalists to hear "Mr. Minister". And Kaczyński, who will do anything to turn the current majority over and save any of his associates from criminal work for various misdemeanors, could be much more generous for Poland 2050 in terms of giving positions than Tusk.

Especially as the upcoming reconstruction will be very painful for Poland 2050. Tusk has already declared that the Deputy Prime Minister's position will not go to anyone from this formation. Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska has already compromised the draft windmill bill written under RES lobbyists and is besides alternatively on the outlet. A position of more than 2 years in a coalition with the PiS and the Confederate, with the preservation or receipt of crucial ministries and positions, could be much more attractive for Holowna et consortes than staying as a marginalized coalition without its Prime Minister.

For Kaczyński, a coalition with PL2050 and Confederacy would be even more attractive than a coalition with only the latter. In specified a government arrangement, the Confederacy would necessarily have a weaker position, as it would gotta share with the hoarders. And it is the Confederate who is treated by the PiS as a real threat – after all, Kaczyński kept his full political life from increasing anything serious on his right. Braun, by 2027, is likely to compromise adequate that he himself sinks his political project. The Confederacy is likely to stay on the wave.

Moreover, the alliance or regular cooperation with Poland 2050 will kind of normalize the Confederation in the eyes of part of the liberal electorate, abolishing the sanitary cordon separating PiS from antiPiS. Of course, most anti-PiS electorate for the group from Nowogrodzka will not vote, but it is adequate to stay home. Kaczyński will officially return to mainstream and show that he abruptly gained a very broad coalition capacity. After all, many PSL politicians – with Marek Sawicki at the head – would be more pleased to see themselves in the coalition with PiS than with Left or left flank KO. By the way, the Confederate Programme would enter mainstream, and specified a coalition could introduce much worse amendments than this modest amendment to the Housing Act.

So the right is on a wave not only due to the fact that in respective loud issues (immigration, support for Ukraine, climate policy) society turned right. She is on the wave due to the fact that her politicians are clever, consistent, able to play their opponents and turn them against each other, as well as exploit the exaggerated ambitions of smaller players, maming them and attracting political fructs. Let us hope that the disheartened non-right-wing electorate will shift its support to left-wing parties and not even cease to be curious in politics.

But, well, I besides hoped that Poland would win with Finland, which was much more likely.

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