On a superficial level, this instability manifested itself with a number of bizarre, bizarro phenomena that accumulated in the campaign. Of course, presidential campaigns in Poland have always favored political folklore and exoticism.
In 1990, a man from nowhere with a black briefcase entered the second round, defeating in the first Tadeusz Mazowiecki. 5 years later, an entrepreneur from Chrzanów appeared in the race, utilizing his participation in debates to advertise his shoe inserts and build a message on open anti-Semitism. Leszek Bubel. In 2000 Kwasniewski's double rode around Poland, acting as if he was intoxicated, which corresponded with Marian Krzaklewski's campaign, releasing spots containing recordings with the president in the state most likely indicating. This did not prevent Kwasniewski from winning in the first round. Then we had more. Magdalena Cucumber as an SLD candidate and an envelope election not held in 2020.
This year, however, the parade of bizarrism was unique, and it was not due to theoretically the most "exotic" candidates – anonymous people who did not know how they actually managed to collect 100,000 signatures, or the persuader to vote for everyone but the sports writer advertise your channel on YouTube.
Moreover, it is hard to measure what is actually political folklore in Poland today. Grzegorz Braun, who 10 years ago with his slogan "church, school, weapon range" and videos in which he wondered if Yoda was Jewish, remained a harmless margin, now collected over 1.2 million votes – more than the talker of the Sejm or any of the candidates of the left.
However, crucially, Kaczyński chose a candidate with a biography – even if only 1 3rd of the charges that were made against him were confirmed – as if taken out of a movie that Patrick Vega could movie about this year's elections. For months of the campaign, we wondered if the presidential candidate was a gangus, what kind of connections he had with characters from the Tricity underworld and neo-Nazis. erstwhile Nawrocki himself admitted that he was active in the Kibolian setups, another PiS politicians – erstwhile the “law and order” organization – began defending this form of “nobility of sporting competition”. Andrzej Duda – a professor's kid after 1 of the best advanced schools in Krakow and almost at the Jagiellonian University and Jarosław Kaczyński – a man from the very nucleus of Żoliborska intelligence, erstwhile with superiority stressing that he, unlike Tusk, did not rise himself in the backyard – they told how the judaic planet was close to them in their youth.
Other political forces besides went into absurd poetics, headed by Prime Minister Tuski, who, a fewer days before the election, began to trust on the freakfighter of a suspicious conduity as an authority in the question of Nawrock's past. If Trump introduced to American politics poetics and Wrestlemania characters, This year's Polish cultural run entered the areas somewhere between Freak MMA and patostreaming.
A wobbly double
Behind this parade of bizarres lies the deeper disorganization of the Polish politics for 20 years duopol. Since 2005 erstwhile he first revealed himself, his candidates in the presidential election they did not get as fewer votes together as this year – only 60 percent of the votes were cast on Trzaskowski and Nawrocki.
Duopol was bitten with left and right. For years, the Law and Justice had successfully implemented Kaczyński's doctrine that there could be no crucial political force to the right of this party. In these elections, over 20 percent of the votes were cast at the large turnout, which, regardless of the result of the second round, will be a major strategical challenge for Nowogrodzka. On the another side of the left despite the division – or possibly thanks to it – she was able to win the most votes in the 2010 presidential election, she was not eaten in the first circular of Trzaskowski. A full of 5.1 million votes were cast on candidates for a clear break from the position quo – Mentzen, Braun, Zandberg.
It can besides be seen that the duo is incapable to scope younger voters. Trzaskowski and Nawrocki dominated the elder electorate, the younger the group, the worse they manage. Among the people aged 18-29, Mentzen, the second Zandberg – a group who remembers no another Poland than the 1 ruled by Kaczyński or Tuska showed that it is not found in this division.
The run besides saw a crisis of leadership of both duopol leaders. Kaczyński put on a candidate who turned out to be a origin of endless problems for the organization – if the Law and Justice Department had set up individual with little baggage with those social emotions, he would have gone for any victory. Tusk was a burden alternatively than an asset of the Trzask campaign. In a fresh interview he quoted Muran, presenting himself as individual who is little and little coping with dynamic political reality.
The government became specified a large burden for Trzaskowski, due to the fact that not only he could not fulfill many promises, but he besides completely failed to deal with the communication of his successes.
Without clear indication
No fresh polarization or clear social preference as to which direction Poland should go is emerging from this duopol crisis. It is not known where the young electorates of Mentzen and Zandberg will be very variable in 2 years. The youngest voters are besides simply not adequate to impose their preferences on the dividing axis of the full political scene.
Polarization on the Mentzen-Zandberg line is paradoxical. The first gathered in these elections much more popular electorate than left-wing candidate. Among Mentzen's workers was the second, behind Nawrock, with the support of 21.8%, Zandberg the sixth – with the support of 2.6. Mentzen besides clearly wins against candidate Together among the unemployed. The draw is only among students and students. Almost half of Zandberg's voters (47.3) have a higher education, in the case of Mentzen voters it is 35.4%. The participation of people with primary and vocational education in the electorate of the Confederate leader was more than 3.6 times greater than Zandberg included. The Candidate Together besides has far more urban supporters. There is no village where almost half of Mentzen voters live. In a sense, in the youngest generation, the division of the mountain-down, present served by KO and PiS, is reborn in a fresh cast, where the "down" serves Mentzen alternatively than the candidate of the left.
Dissatisfied with the socio-economic model, they so vote to include turbocharge on those features that make the top inequalities. In the campaign, the hunger for housing and anger for developers as much as the desire for deregulation and rejection Green Deal, rage at the excessive conservatism of the current government and fear of the "social revolution" imposed by globalists. An crucial factor, which we have inactive not examined, is the fear of Poland being drawn into the war in Ukraine, which favours right-wing candidates, taking a position at least skeptical of our strenuous commitment to helping the fighting Ukrainians (Nawrocks) or simply hostile to the “Bander Kiev” (Braun).
The voters have besides become highly impatient, unstable in their organization loyalty. With all the criticism that can be raised against the Tusk government, nonsubjective economical indicators do not justify specified a strong anti-government and anti-establishment emotion.
The planet is wobbling too
There is no uncertainty that what is happening in Poland is part of the global instability and the global conflict between the offensive of "global MAGA" and defending itself against it, weakening – although able to defend itself in places specified as Canada and Australia – a global liberal center.
You can see it perfectly on Tuesday in Jasionka pod Rzeszow, where the CPAC conference, sponsored by the stock exchange, came together with the safety secretary in Trump's administration, Kristi Noem. This openly supported Karol Nawrocki, suggesting that Trzaskowski is simply a “socialist” who will be a threat to freedom in Poland.
In a sense, the Polish elections have turned into a "proxy war" between Trumpian America and the European centre. Both candidates participate in this war, hiding its actual strategical stakes from their voters. The European Camp at all turn ensures its transatlantic ties and maintains the illusion that Poland will never gotta make a hard choice between Washington and Europe – which Trump's policy can force us to do in the coming years. The Trump camp pretends that it is possible to play with Trump with impunity on the division and weakening of Europe while at the same time benefiting from the European project.
Nawrocki's win – much more alt-right in an global dimension than the 1 formed by Lech Kaczyński Duda – means moving the conflict from run to the regular functioning of the state. And besides a extremist acceleration of the instability we have seen in fresh months. due to the fact that Nawrockie and his background depends on the overthrow of the current government as shortly as possible and to give Poland a fresh written revolution, most likely together with the Confederation. Trzaskowski's triumph will calm the situation and the chance to stabilise the current arrangement – but even with president Trzaskowski in 2027, he may face another shock.
