"The asymmetric crises and budgetary problems of France have caused the French-German engine of Europe to swell up," comments Nick Alipour on euractiv.com. The analyst explains that political chaos is driving both France and Germany off balance. If this instability continues, it will bury the plans for the EU federalisation.
In the light of the political turmoil in Paris, agreements with the German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's squad are being called into question. This is about joint initiatives on arms, energy and trade.
Macron assured journalists that interior political turmoil "was never an obstacle" in talks on cooperation in key areas between the 2 largest economies of the European Union, whose populations together account for as much as a 3rd of the full block.
However, Alipour notes that "the French-German partnership, erstwhile hailed as the driving force of the EU, which will always drive integration into the Single marketplace and another crucial European projects, is stuck in the dead end due to the fact that Paris and Berlin are busy with their own political crises".
The analyst referred to a vote of mistrust that had removed the 4th Prime Minister Macron from power in 3 years. The spokesperson for the German government, Stefan Cornelius, assured that Berlin had "no concerns" about France. However, in the spheres of many German politicians expressed discontent with what was happening in France. Fiscal difficulties and frequent change of governments affect Franco-German cooperation.
W Berlin is starting to wonder if ‘Germany should not take its own course’ erstwhile France seems to be an unreliable partner.
Concerns grow in relation to large defence projects.
Alipour notes that it was only a fewer years ago that Macron was annoyed by the political crisis in his neighbour. "The inept coalition of the 3 parties", which created the government at the head of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, was frequently at an impasse. The misunderstandings afraid drastic climate and budgetary policies.
Meanwhile, Macron risked his parliamentary majority, announcing early elections in the summertime of 2024, just after the French right-wing triumph in the European Parliament elections. shortly after the vote in France, Scholz's government fell apart.
Alipour recalls Joanna Werner's opinions from the Jacques Delors Centre, which has been dealing with French-German relations for years. In her opinion, the current periods of political instability in both countries are expected to consequence from wider changes in the global arena and in Europe in particular. It's about the US safety guarantee. They have become little credible, and the war in Ukraine has only increased the force on strained budgets of European countries, which must increase their defence spending.
Two weeks ago, both countries demonstrated their extraordinary unity during the celebrations held in France. Even then, an extended agenda for economical and safety was announced. Today, their implementation is questionable.
The position of the fresh head of government of Sébastian Lecorn, the erstwhile defence minister on the contracts is not clear, and it is confirmed that Paris is incapable to carry out a thorough improvement of the budget to reduce expenditure. France has the 3rd highest debt-to-GDP ratio in the EU and small area for manoeuvre to change that.
Germany has thus far borne the main financial burden associated with the implementation of the joint projects. It now appears that it would should be akin for joint projects.
In France's favor, it speaks of a much better equipped army than Berlin. However, if both countries wanted to proceed to play a key function in the EU, they would besides gotta make crucial investments. Mario Draghi, the erstwhile president of the European Central Bank, who drew up a plan to improve European competitiveness, estimated that EU countries would gotta spend an additional EUR 800 billion a year above what they are presently spending, or more than 4% of EU GDP, in order to meet the needs of arms, climate policy and economical competitiveness.
France spends €67 billion per year to handle abroad debt alone. That's a lot more than defense.
However, Alipour points out that Berlin does not see an alternate to the French-German partnership as regards the reinforcement and competitiveness of the economy. The British have left the EU, Poland and Spain have their own interior problems, and the situation of Italy is akin to that of France. They're besides very indebted.
For Berlin, the presidential elections in France scheduled for 2027 are very important. They besides number on a more unchangeable government in their neighbour to push the centralisation of power in the EU. If this does not happen, then – as many analysts anticipate – European integration will be stuck in a dead end.
Berlin and Paris could accept the thought of more loose cooperation between EU countries with limited Brussels authorities, as many smaller countries are seeking. However, they do not want to do so by convincing that without the creation of an EU national state, Europe will drastically lose its economical competitiveness in the global race.
Source: euractiv.com
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