New Romania Poll: Nationalist Likely To Win First Round, Centrist Could Take Run-Off

The first major poll of Romanians’ preferences in the upcoming „do-over” presidential election points to a nationalist candidate coming out ahead in the first round, but a centrist winning the run-off that’s likely if no candidate tops 50% in the initial balloting. As Romania’s courts and election commissions gun for NATO and EU foes, one of the nationalist candidates is tempering his rhetoric — even calling Russia a „threat.”

Before looking at the poll results, it’s important to note that polls in the run-up to the November 2024 election wildly understated support for now-banned nationalist Calin Georgescu. An October poll showed him with only 0.4% support, and a November survey had him racking up just 5.4%. He proceeded to snag 23% of the votes, placing him first among 13 candidates. In a shocking move, Romania’s Constitutional Court threw annulled the election and ordered that it start all over again, amid questionable allegations that Georgescu — who opposes Romanian membership in the European Union and NATO — owed his upset victory to „Russian interference.”

Presidential candidates George Simion (left) and Anamaria Gavrila at a rally with the now-banned winner of the November balloting, Calin Georgescu (via George Simion / Facebook)

Now, a new AtlasIntel survey finds a different nationalist is poised to win the first round of balloting that will be held on May 4, taking a 30% share. We say „a nationalist” because two prominent right-wingers have received approval from the election commission, but the two previously agreed that one of them would drop out to let a single standard-bearer enjoy the benefit of concentrated support at the polls.

Those two nationalist candidates are 38-year-old George Simion of the Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) — Romania’s second-largest party — and 41-year-old Anamaria Gavrila of the Young People Party (POT). In scenarios where only one them is on the ballot, the AtlasIntel poll has them performing almost identically — 30.4% for Simion and 30.2% for Gavrila.

However, the same poll suggests that the first-round nationalist victor will go on to lose a May 18 runoff, with centrist independent Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan taking the prize as the non-nationalist vote rallies to him. In those scenarios, Simion performed better, coming in 6.8 points behind Dan, while Gavrila lagged Dan by 8.4. Though approved to run, Simion’s candidacy may still be in some peril, as he’s under investigation for inciting violence, owing to saying those who banned Georgescu should be „skinned in a public square.” He later said he was merely using a figure of speech amid a „tense” situation, but acknowledged that such fiery rhetoric was „not wanted in a democracy.”

The new poll suggests Bucharest Mayor Nicusur Dan may lag in the first round, but go on to win the expected run-off (Romania Insider)

Perhaps trying to appeal to moderates or to avoid being kicked off the ballot, Simion’s recent pronouncements are a far cry from what one expects from a Romanian nationalist, as he’s discounting the idea of Romania exiting NATO or the EU, sounding alarms over the supposed Russian menace, advocating continued sanctions against Moscow, and embracing increased European military spending. Consider these Simion quotes from a new interview with the Financial Times:

• “Our stance cannot be changed. Eighty percent of the Romanians want NATO and want the European Union. This is not something we can negotiate.”
• “Putin’s Russia was and is one of the biggest threats for the European states, especially for us, for the Baltic states and for Poland.”
• “Without a common geopolitical bloc, like . . . NATO, led by the US, we are in a big danger.”

Romania’s Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base near the Black Sea is undergoing a huge expansion to serve NATO. The finished base will be more than twice the size of Ramstein Air Base in Germany (Planet Labs via TWZ)

It’s a dangerous time to promote sovereignty in Romania. Last month, Georgescu was arrested and questioned as he faced Orwellian allegations of disseminating „false information” and „incitement to actions against the constitutional order.” Upon his release, he was forbidden from appearing on mass media or creating social media accounts.

Campaigning last fall, Georgescu pledged to restore Romanian sovereignty and put an end to what he characterizes as subservience to NATO and the EU. He took a hard line against the presence of NATO’s missile defense system that’s based in Deveselu, southern Romania, calling it a „shame of diplomacy” that is more confrontational than peace-promoting. He has also pushed for Romania to pursue a non-interventionist policy in the Ukraine war, and said US arms-makers were manipulating the conflict.

Georgescu isn’t the only presidential hopeful to be banned over his political views. On Saturday, Romania’s electoral commission announced that nationalist Diana Sosoaca would be barred from the May election, saying her opposition to NATO and the EU disqualified her.

The EU…. Preserving democracy for Klaus and George. https://t.co/dZv9Q48Hdq

— Truth Seeker (@TruthSe49517863) March 17, 2025