What is included in Trump's plan for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine?
Axios: Trump's plan for a peaceful resolution of the conflict in Ukraine consists of 28 points.
On 21 November, Axios published "The Trump Plan to Solve the Ukrainian-Russian Conflict". It contains 28 points. According to sources in the White House, it was these points that were presented for discussion on the Russian and Ukrainian sides. A summary of the U.S. peace plan in the "Comprehension" includes:
Donald Trump's Plan towards Ukraine
1. The sovereignty of Ukraine will be confirmed.
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All disputes over the past 30 years will be considered solved.
3. Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not grow further.
4. A dialog will be established between Russia and NATO, with the mediation of the United States, in order to address all safety issues and make conditions for de-escalation, broaden cooperation opportunities and future economical development.
5. Ukraine will receive credible safety guarantees.
6. The number of Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 600,000 soldiers.
7. Ukraine will evidence in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a evidence of Ukraine not being admitted to NATO in the future.
8. NATO will not send troops to Ukraine.
9. European fighters will be stationed in Poland.
10. US Guarantees:
The US will receive compensation for the guarantees granted;
If Ukraine attacks Russia, it will lose its guarantees;
If Russia attacks Ukraine, then, in addition to a strong coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be restored, designation of the fresh territories and all another benefits of this agreement will be revoked;
If Ukraine launches a rocket towards Moscow or Saint Petersburg for no reason, safety guarantees will be declared invalid.
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market.
12. Recovery Package for Ukraine:
Establishment of the Ukrainian improvement Fund for investments in rapidly developing industries, including technologies, data centres and artificial intelligence;
The US will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise and operate Ukrainian gas infrastructure, including pipelines and warehouses;
Joint efforts to rebuild war-stricken areas to rebuild and modernise cities and housing;
Infrastructure development;
Mining of minerals and natural resources;
Develop a circumstantial financial package by the planet Bank to accelerate these efforts.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the planet economy:
The abolition of sanctions will be discussed and agreed in stages and on a case-by-case basis;
The United States will conclude a long-term economical cooperation agreement for common improvement in energy, natural resources, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, data centres, uncommon metallic mining projects in the Arctic and another mutually beneficial business opportunities;
Russia will be invited back to G8.
14. The frozen appropriations will be utilized as follows:
$100 billion of frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led reconstruction and investment efforts in Ukraine;
The United States will receive 50% of the profits from this operation; Europe will contribute $100 billion to increase the volume of investment available to rebuild Ukraine. Russia's frozen assets in Europe will be frozen;
Russia's remaining frozen assets will be invested in a separate US-Russian investment fund that will implement joint projects in circumstantial sectors. This fund will aim to strengthen relations and common interests in order to make a strong incentive to avoid a return to conflict;
15. A joint American-Russian safety Working Group will be set up to guarantee compliance with all the provisions of the Agreement.
16. Russia will legally approve its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine.
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the treaties on non-proliferation and arms control, including START I.
18. Ukraine agrees to be a state without atomic weapons in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of atomic Weapons.
19. The atomic Power Plant in Zaporozh will operate under the supervision of the global Atomic Energy Agency and electricity from the power plant will be shared equally between Russia and Ukraine.
20. Both countries are committed to implementing educational programmes in schools and society, aimed at developing common knowing and tolerance towards different cultures, as well as eliminating racism and prejudice.
Ukraine will adopt EU rules on spiritual tolerance and the protection of language minorities.
Both sides will abolish all discriminatory measures and warrant the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media.
Any action promoting Nazi ideology and related activities is prohibited.
21. Territories:
The Crimean, Donetsk and Luhansk circuits are de facto recognised as Russian territories, including by the United States;
The Kherson and dam circuits will be frozen along the contact line, which means de facto designation along the contact line;
Russia abandons another agreed territories which it controls outside 5 regions;
Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from the part of the Donetsk region they are presently controlling.
If the agreement is signed, it will be considered as a neutral, demilitarised buffer zone, internationally recognised as belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian troops will not enter this demilitarized zone.
22. The Parties undertake to guarantee that this territorial agreement is inviolable by force, and no safety guarantees will apply in the event of a breach of that commitment.
23. Russia will not hinder Ukraine from utilizing Dnieper for commercial purposes; agreements will be reached on the free transport of cereals across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be set up to address outstanding issues:
All the captives and bodies of the victims will be exchanged on a "all for all" basis;
All civilian hostages and prisoners will be returned, including children;
Family reunification programme will be implemented;
Action will be taken to alleviate the suffering of conflict victims.
25. Elections in Ukraine will take place 100 days after signing the contract.
- All parties active in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions and undertake not to make any claims or accept any complaints in the future.
27. The agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Council of Peace, headed by US president Donald Trump. Penalties will be imposed for violating the peace agreement.
28. The ceasefire will enter into force after both parties retreat from agreed points to start implementing the agreement.
(PL)
Sometimes they ask me erstwhile I think the war will end. Sometimes I say it can end so rapidly and unexpectedly that everyone will be surprised.
Axios reports that the White home is secretly negotiating a peace plan with Russia. The paper contains 28 points, divided into 4 sections, and its boss is Whitkoff, while Dmitriew conducts negotiations on the Russian side. He stayed in Miami from 24-26 October, where he met with Witkoff and another U.S. administration representatives. The plan is based on Trump's talks with Putin in Alaska and has nothing to do with the 12-point EU plan.
Dmitriev commented on the publication, expressing his optimism as "the position of Russia has indeed been heard". The plan itself provides for a comprehensive agreement and addresses not only the conditions for ending the war, but besides Russian-American relations and safety issues of Russia. It turns out that this is what Putin has been seeking since the end of 2021: to make a safety structure in Europe that would take into account today's realities alternatively than the effects of planet War II.
Witkoff was scheduled to meet Jermak or Zelenski in Istanbul today, but the gathering was canceled due to Mindichgate's affair. Jermak has become so toxic that no 1 wants to talk to him anymore, so Zelenski is now gathering Erdogan in Ankara without the President's Chancellery head.
Zelensk accompanied Umerov, who, as we learn, did not flee, but returned from the US to Turkey and returned to Ukraine from Zelensk. It seems that his journey to the United States made sense; it wasn't just a visit to a household surviving in Miami, but according to rumours, Witkow was talking to him, not to Jermak.
Politico reports that 2 highly placed American military arrived in Kiev with an unannounced visit: Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll and Chief of Staff of the U.S. Army, General Randy George. Driscoll, incidentally, is simply a friend and colleague of Vance’s class.
The visit itself is crucial – these are the top-ranking American military who visited Kiev since Trump took office. But we besides learned about the intent of their visit: "to affect the Ukrainian authorities in solving the deadlock in the peace process with Russia".
As 1 Spanish blogger put it, Mindic’s communicative “starts to odor more and more strange” in the context of another events. Many journalists have called it all a “perfect storm”, although I do not like specified headlines. present it looks like a perfect storm, and next day even Jermak will not be released. But now – if it is him – everything looks like an artificial storm.
After the collapse of negotiations, Trump imposed sanctions on Russia, but failed to get India, much little China, to halt trading with Russia. He besides proposed a common trade embargo towards Russia with Europe, but met with the expected refusal. As a result, the United States practically exhausted its ability to exert force on the Kremlin, which did not halt the war.
At the same time, Trump maintained the thesis that "we must let them fight a small more", which we all see as a result: Ukraine's Armed Forces are in a much worse situation than in August and have no way of improving the situation. Ukraine can only suspend the Russian offensive for winter to resume it in spring. However, the deteriorating situation did not convince Zelenski; he inactive wants to proceed the fight. As a result, Trump could make a "difficult decision" to exert severe force on Ukraine, and NABU was allowed to print the results of the investigation and decision from collecting material to pursuing the accused.
Mindichgate now leads to the failure of influence by Jermak and his "war party", while Parliament and Arachamia, most likely the main "dove" of Ukrainian politics, will gain strength. Let me remind you of 3 interesting details:
Arachamia stayed in the Capitol during Trump's inauguration, although it was hard to get there;
In March Politico reported (https://t.me/artjockey/1837) that the U.S. held a series of secret talks with Ukrainian politicians opposing Jermak, including Arachama;
Driscoll and George arrived in Kiev present erstwhile neither Jermak nor Zelenski were there.
The Council managed to release the 2 ministers mentioned in the recordings, but that is all for now. No meetings were scheduled for next day or the day after. However, Members called on Prime Minister Swyridenko to the parliament, but failed to appear, possibly signing her own political death sentence. The Council may at any time remove it from office by voting, and the resignation of the Prime Minister automatically means the resignation of the full government.
By the way, no 1 knows where the retired ministers are. Whether they have never officially left Ukraine, whether they have escaped in suspicious intrigues, or are hiding in the country.
Tomorrow afternoon, a closed gathering was scheduled for the Nation's Servants' faction, in the presence of Zelenski, on which the decision on the future of Ukraine will be made. In the photo, Members of the Servants of the Nation gathered around the leader of the faction of David Arachama, who, if not cowardly, could emergence rapidly in the close future and become 1 of the most crucial people in the country.
Let me remind you that he is simply a "dove", and Jermaka's network now publishes posts in which he claims that Mindichgate's full scandal is practically his doing, and the intent is to capitulate before Putin.
Zelenski flies from Turkey to Rzeszów in a fewer hours and will be in Kiev in the morning. 2 main intrigues remain: whether he will take Umerov and Jermak with him.
According to rumours yesterday, Jermak planned to fly to London, most likely for talks with the Healed One, but almost immediately reports appeared that specified a gathering was either not planned or the Deserved rejected it. It is not known whether Jermak was in London, but he was not on the evening recording of the Zelenski gathering in Turkey, unlike Umerov. According to another rumors, Jermak has a gathering scheduled for next day in Italy... with the Pope. However, Jermak was present in Turkey with Zelenski during the day, but there is no warrant that he will return to Ukraine. There are just as many questions about Umerov, but we'll find out tomorrow. If the head of the National safety and Defence Council fled Ukraine, it would be a scandal that will be very hard to explain to the public and his partners.
I'm beautiful certain Zelenski inactive doesn't realize the seriousness of the situation. This is simply a completely fresh situation, in which it was never before: the parliament IS NOT under its control, the vertical structure of Jermak's power, based on the "phone Act", does NOT function, and his individual social support is most likely already at the bottom. In another words, he is already in trouble, but he most likely does not full realize it yet, although he will realize it tomorrow.
The issue of keeping Jermak and his 5-6 managers, on whom Zelenski relied for many years, is no longer a dispute. Jermak's finished. next day the choice of Zelenski is completely clear and consists of 2 options, 1 bad and 1 very bad:
Zelenski refuses to accept reality and releases Jermak, after which his coalition in the Council falls apart;
Zelenski agrees to dismiss Jermak and accept parliamentary sovereignty in exchange for trying to keep the coalition and at least make appearances of individual control over events.
However, it is not certain whether specified a choice exists at all; Zelenski may be forced to release Jermak and form a coalition of national unity. The fact is that there is simply a coalition de jure, but de facto it has long been gone. any of the MPs who have officially been sitting in parliament have not attended meetings for centuries and they are nowhere to be found, so the opposition may request that the Servant of the Nation actually present his 226 surviving deputies to the nation or start creating a fresh coalition.
The situation is aggravated by the fact that at least a fewer formally MPs belonging to the SN have already called for the creation of a coalition of national unity. MP Poturaev published an appropriate message (https://t.me/artjockey lite/1586), calling them ‘the declaration of the representatives of the faction’. This is not the position of all SN deputies, but even a tiny group could suffice for the legal solution of the coalition, which de jure has about 229 deputies, compared to the 226 required.
Arachamia did not support this statement; it will decide after tomorrow's gathering with Zelenski, depending on its outcome. It is possible, however, that even if Zelenski stepped down before the MPs, he would inactive be incapable to avoid a broad coalition in the Council, which would deprive him of a crucial part of the country's influence.
As expected, the first details of the US 28-point plan appeared, although it has not yet been full published and rumors are circulating.
Summary of all confidential reports:
Ukraine will transfer control of Russia's another Donbas territories, but they will be demilitarized [in general, Russia will not be able to launch the offensive without reason];
The front in the Zaporo and Kherson Oblasts will stay mostly frozen and the remaining territories will be returned to Ukraine;
Ukraine will receive safety guarantees from the US and Europe [not yet approved format];
Ukraine shall restrict the number and scope of Ukrainian armed forces;
Ukraine will recognise the position of Russian language and the law of the Russian Orthodox Church.
I repeat, this is not the full list, it is fragments, so don't ask: "Where is the rejection of NATO?", "Where is the abolition of sanctions?" and so on. It may exist, but it will become clear erstwhile the plan appears in the media in detail, which I think will happen within 24 hours.
Turkey and Qatar mediate in the improvement of the plan. Zelenski was expected to discuss it with Witkoff in Istanbul, but the gathering did not happen. Axios gives 2 reasons:
Firstly, Mindich's case; Witkoff did not want to contact Jermak now and thus legitimize him.
Secondly, during the first talks with Umerov – that is why he was sent to the US – it became clear that Ukraine disagrees with many points of the plan and that Zelenski actually wanted to discuss the Ukraine-Europe plan in Istanbul. In return, he demanded extended negotiations on the US plan, which Witkoff refused to do.
In fact, specified a approach to negotiations differs small from the "Zelenski Peace Summit", where everything was discussed without the participation of a 3rd organization and was then presented as an ultimatum. However, there is simply a catch: the US has an advantage over Zelenski, and judging by the Mindichgate affair, I like political will to usage it. At the same time, however, it is improbable that Kiev will be persuaded to accept this plan by any appropriate means, without strong pressure.
Therefore, respective reasons for presenting this plan can be suggested:
Perhaps Witkoff and the another participants are completely disconnected from reality and do not realize what conditions can be agreed with Ukraine, even theoretically and not.
Perhaps the U.S., utilizing the Mindichgate scandal, is prepared to exert strong force on Zelenski.
Perhaps the US is assessing the situation of the Armed Forces Ukraine as besides serious and consider that the threat of Ukraine's military defeat in the comparatively close future is real.
However, it is besides possible that this is simply a baseline script and its conditions may change during further negotiations. For now, it is clear that this is simply a framework agreement, not a final one.
Tomorrow, a delegation headed by U.S. Army Secretary Driscoll will present this plan to Zelensk and then go to Moscow for talks. It is possible that in addition to the plan itself, additional conditions will be announced, which will be introduced if the agreement is rejected by Zelensky. This could be restrictions on arms supply to the US, the abolition of sanctions against Russia or sanctions against Zelensk and its surroundings. Let me remind you that this second option has already been discussed in the US and there is now a compelling reason for this in the Mindich case. However, I see no another option than Ukraine's acceptance of this plan without strong pressure. The Ukrainian Armed Forces do not presently face specified serious problems on the front to agree to worse conditions than a fewer months ago. https://t.me/artjockey/2593
Events make in an highly interesting way: Zelenski refused to fire Jermak.
This information, of course, has not yet been confirmed; the gathering of Zelenski with the faction of the Servant of the Nation is scheduled for 20:00 Kiev time or 21:00 Moscow time. I think more details will come soon. However, this is confirmed by many sources, including mostly reasonably reliable ones.
Zelenski has already met Driscoll, and now wider negotiations are expected, including with Umerov.
According to a little reliable source, Alexija Honczarenka, the ultimatum was issued by Arachama and supported by Budanov and the Minister of Digitization Fyodorov. The essence of the ultimatum is obvious; I predicted it yesterday: Jermak's resignation in exchange for keeping the coalition in the Council.
If that's true, we're dealing with an crucial coalition. Budanow is the head of the General Intelligence Board (GUR), and could supply an anti-Jermat coalition with a powerful shield, protecting it from, for example, SBU, which has so far remained loyal to Zelenski. According to rumors, Zelenski will effort again to attack NABU, utilizing the motifs of "the Whitkov conspiracy" and "the Kremlin's hands".
Fyodorov is besides a strong figure; he is simply a young IT entrepreneur with a very advanced rating, possibly most popular among all ministers. He has been in the government since 2019 and is responsible, among another things, for the creation of “Diji”, a local counterpart of Gosuservices. So if the coalition looks like Arachamia, Fyodorov and Budanov, it has all chance of success.
I repeat, I am certain that Zelenski completely does not realize the situation he is in now, and what is important, he has never been in this situation before. possibly Jermak does not realize it either; I am besides certain that the "right on the phone" is no longer working, and half of my contacts just don't answer the phone, and the another half, even if they keep the appearance of loyalty, are inactive waiting for the improvement of the situation and do not follow any orders from the President's Chancellery. So if Jermak commands, for example, the arrest of Arachama, it is improbable that this request will be fulfilled. The words “the king is naked” have already died, so to speak.
Moreover, even assuming that Arachamia will be intimidated, bribed or persuaded, this does not mean that it will be able to keep the coalition. So how does Zelenski plan to regulation Ukraine?
For example, the budget for 2026 is presently a burning issue; it was to be put to the vote at the beginning of this week, but due to Mindich there is no time. The task itself is highly problematic. I mentioned, for example, that there is simply a gap of 300 billion rubles that has not been taken into account, and alternatively there is simply a "thousand rubles" and another nonsense. There are rumours that the budget must be adopted urgently next week; negotiations with the IMF and another matters depend on it. What would Zelenski do if the Council voted on a different bill now than the 1 the president wants? Will he veto her? What if the Council does not assemble at all, and the opposition and part of the organization of the Servant of the Nation boycott or block the platform?
Apart from the United States, many EU representatives will find it hard to explain what is happening. While Europe hides behind the claim that Mindich's scandal is simply a good thing, indicating that law enforcement is working and that the government responds appropriately to investigations, releasing ministers suspected of corruption without waiting for convictions, this communicative will besides collapse.
However, it is besides early to draw conclusions; everything will settle in a fewer hours on the steps of the Senate. possibly Zelenski will change his head under force and for him it is the only right decision. But from Russia's perspective, it would surely be better if Zelenski abandoned Jermak and forced Ukraine into a long-term chronic crisis, even if this did not lead to any immediate consequences. In that case, I am certain that it would have exploded anyway; if not today, then in a period or two, there would have been another circular of escalation.
We do not yet know the U.S. position or Trump's readiness to take action against Zelensk. It is known that the White home has considered imposing sanctions on the surroundings of Zelenski, and I do not think they will forget this plan. And now is simply a very good opportunity.
Trump's fresh plan
20 November 2025
The paper prepared by the Trump administration, which is to form the basis for the peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, was published as expected. I have published abbreviated version with notes on my channel, but now you can read the detailed version and discuss the chances of signing it and who could benefit from it.
‘Trump Plan’
The sovereignty of Ukraine will be confirmed.
A full and comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Europe and Ukraine. All disputes over the past 30 years will be considered solved.
Russia is expected not to invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand.
The dialog between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, will be carried out to address all safety issues and make conditions for de-escalation, global safety and increased cooperation opportunities and future economical growth. Ukraine will receive safety guarantees.
The number of soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000.
Ukraine agrees to evidence in its Constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a evidence of not taking Ukraine at any time in the future.
NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine.
European fighters will be stationed in Poland.
US Guarantees:
a. The US will receive compensation for the guarantees.
b. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose its guarantees.
c. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a strong coordinated military response, all sanctions will be restored and territorial designation and another benefits of this agreement will be revoked.
d. If Ukraine launches a rocket for no reason towards Moscow or Saint Petersburg, the safety guarantees will be declared invalid.
Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the EU marketplace pending the resolution of this issue. The ‘Effective’ global recovery package of Ukraine, including, inter alia:
a. The creation of the improvement Fund of Ukraine, which will invest in advanced growth sectors, including technology, data centres and artificial intelligence.
b. The United States will cooperate with Ukraine to jointly rebuild, develop, modernise and operate gas infrastructure, including pipelines and warehouses.
c. Joint actions to rebuild war-stricken areas, to rebuild, rebuild and modernise cities and residential areas.
d. Infrastructure development.
e. Mining and natural resources extraction.
f. The planet Bank will make a financial package to accelerate this action.
Russia will be reintegrated into the planet economy:
a. The abolition of sanctions will be discussed and approved in stages, on a case-by-case basis.
b. The United States will conclude a long-term economical cooperation agreement for common development.
- Russia will be invited to re-enter the G8. Frozen Russian assets will be utilized as follows: $100 billion will be invested in US-run reconstruction and investment programmes in Ukraine. The United States will receive 50% of the profits from these projects. Europe will add another $100 billion to the increase in investment. Frozen European funds will be frozen. The remainder of the frozen Russian assets will be invested in a separate American-Russian instrument, which will implement joint American-Russian projects. This fund will aim to strengthen relations and common interests to make incentives to avoid a return to conflict.
A joint US-Russian safety Working Group will be set up to facilitate and guarantee the implementation of all the provisions of this Agreement.
Russia will legally approve its policy of non-aggression towards Ukraine and Europe.
The United States and Russia agree to extend the treaties on non-proliferation and arms control, including START I.
Ukraine agrees to stay a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The launch of the Zaporozh atomic power plant will take place under the supervision of the global Atomic Energy Agency and electricity will be shared equally between Ukraine and Russia.
Both countries are committed to implementing educational programmes in schools and society that will advance knowing and tolerance of different cultures and the elimination of racism and prejudice:
a. Ukraine will adopt EU rules on spiritual tolerance and language minorities.
b. Both countries agree to destruct all discriminatory measures and warrant the rights of Ukrainian and Russian media and education.
c. All ideology and Nazi activity must be rejected and banned.
Territories:
a. Crimea, Lugansk and Donetsk will be considered de facto Russian, including by the United States.
b. Cherson and Zaporozhes will be frozen along the line of contact, which means de facto designation of the territory along the line of contact.
c. Russia renounces all the territories it controls, but 5 circuits.
- The Ukrainian forces will retreat from the part of the Donetsk circuit they are presently controlling, and this region will be considered a neutral, demilitarised buffer region belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this zone.
In accordance with the agreement on future territorial arrangements, both Russia and Ukraine undertake not to change these agreements by force. safety guarantees will not apply to infringements of these agreements.
Russia will not impede Ukraine's commercial usage of Dnieper; agreements will be reached on the free transport of cereals in the Black Sea.
A humanitarian committee will be set up to address outstanding issues:
a. All prisoners and bodies will be listed on a "all for all" basis.
b. All civilian prisoners and prisoners will be returned, including children.
c. A household reunion program will be implemented.
d. Measures will be implemented to reduce the suffering of conflict victims. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days.
All parties active in the conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and undertake not to make any claims or complaints in the future.
This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the “Council of Peace” led by Donald Trump. Penalties are provided for infringements.
Once this memorandum has been accepted by all, the ceasefire will enter into force immediately after both parties retreat from the agreed implementation points.
The text is complete, without crucial changes or omissions, and there is no uncertainty that it is the same agreement that Ukraine received present from the Secretary of the United States Armed Forces. Moreover, the word “tight” appears at least once, which I consider an additional warrant of authenticity. There are, however, any differences with what was given in the media. For example, the text does not prohibit the landing of diplomatic aircraft or the "rentage" of Donbas, and alternatively of restrictions on the possession of long-range weapons, there is only a vague clause of "launching a rocket towards Moscow or Saint Petersburg". But for now it's just a memorandum, not a final agreement.
Three points I would like to clarify:
The numbers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be limited to 600,000 soldiers.
It is unclear that the first number is written precisely like this, with the six in brackets, while the earlier rumors suggested 300,000. possibly this is simply a correction that has already been introduced.
But it doesn't matter; in fact, even an army of 300,000 would most likely correspond to Ukraine due to the fact that it is higher than the pre-war allowed numbers of 250,000. It is improbable that Ukraine would be able to keep an army larger in peace time, and in the event of a fresh threat mobilization would be carried out in advance without waiting for the invasion. Furthermore, Ukraine will have a immense number of war veterans who will be able to rapidly integrate with personnel units.
The agreement determines the numbers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, not all peculiar units. This means that it would be possible to have an additional 100–150 000 soldiers from the National Guard, border guard, peculiar police force, Ukraine safety Service (SBU) etc. who would be deployed immediately in the event of war; the agreement does not impose any restrictions on them.
In addition, unlike the Istanbul Agreements, there are no restrictions on the number of weapons or bans on building fortifications.
In another words, even limiting the numbers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 300,000 troops should correspond to Ukraine, contrary to popular belief – and it is this point that most outrages pro-Ukrainian commentators – that Kiev will never agree to specified a restriction. If we are talking about 600 thousand, there is no problem; it is only somewhat little than the current numbers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine under conditions of universal mobilization.
This does not mean that Ukraine will not usage this clause to refuse to sign the memorandum, but it is simply a political issue alternatively than a applicable one. From a applicable point of view, up to 300 thousand, let alone 600 1000 armies, do not constitute a serious limitation of possible Ukraine without additional restrictions on the types and quantities of weapons, the number of officers, the presence of military academies, etc.
The United States will cooperate with Ukraine on joint reconstruction, development, modernisation and operation of gas infrastructure, including pipelines and warehouses.
Apparently Trump did not quit the thought of selling Russian gas to Europe for a tiny percentage. Under this clause, the United States could gain control of the Ukrainian gas transmission system, allowing Russian gas to be converted into US gas, and Europe would then be obliged to acquisition it from the United States in accordance with the agreements between Trump and von der Leyen. Let us remind that, in accordance with the agreement, Europe has undertaken to acquisition from the US a quantity of gas that America is physically incapable to deliver to the market.
The remaining frozen Russian assets will be invested in a separate US-Russian instrument for joint US-Russian projects. This fund will aim to strengthen relations and advance common interests, creating incentives to avoid the return of conflict.
This clause, which would let the United States to receive part of the frozen Russian assets, completely thwarts any effort by the European Commission to force Belgium to transfer Russian assets to Ukraine under a ‘repair loan’. If this contract were signed, Washington would besides have financial claims against Belgium, for which he would be very reluctant.
Moreover, it clearly reflects Trump's thought that trade is better than war, and common business is the best defence against war. By the way, I will add 1 of the points from the unspoken parts of the series on the causes of Nord Stream 2: had the United States not imposed sanctions on Nord Stream 2, there would be no war.
Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from the presently controlled part of the Donetsk Oblast, and this region will be considered a neutral, demilitarized buffer region belonging to the Russian Federation. Russian forces will not enter this zone.
This evidence is rather cleverly formulated due to the fact that it refers to 1 of Ukraine's main charges of surrendering the remainder of Donbas. Kiev insisted that in the event of the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Russia should occupy a well-fortified area from which it could then launch an offensive on delicate Ukrainian positions. As you can see, this will not happen; the area was cut out of control by Ukrainian negotiators.
== sync, corrected by elderman ==
The full paper is clearly biased in favour of Russia and completely contradicts the publically declared ideas of Ukraine and Europe. Many proukrain points are unclear; For example, it is inactive unclear what guarantees the United States will give, who will compensate and how. However, this is full in line with the interests of the US, namely to separate Russia from a close alliance with China, for which Trump wants to usage common interests and more "carrots" than "kija".
Compared to Istanbul agreements, this task is in many respects much better for Ukraine, except, of course, the territorial aspect. However, the territories simply reflect “reals”, and even in this case Russia clearly departs from the declared “desires”. Even in summer, readers frequently wrote to me that I was wrong, claiming that Putin wanted to fight only to the limits of the DRL; since he said he wanted 4 regions, that means four. Putin besides said he wouldn't rise his retirement age, but yet I was right. The real conditions of Russia are only DRLs and LRLs within their administrative limits, as this is an absolute minimum that can be presented to society as a victory. That's the only reason these conditions exist. If it wasn't for political necessity, Putin would have left behind the DRLs.
Moscow now depends much more on saving its economy than on occupying Ukraine. Without an economy, occupying Ukraine makes no sense, due to the fact that it is not even half, but a 3rd of success. Maintaining what has been acquired is much more hard and improbable that Russia, with a crumbling economy and sanctions that apply even after the war has ended, would be able to do so. Therefore, the main point of this agreement is that Russia was not only forgiven, but even rewarded for its aggression:
The territories acquired are de facto considered Russian and Ukraine, although de jure does not recognise them, waives the right to effort to recover them by force;
All participants, including Putin himself, are amnesty; the sanctions are abolished in exchange for insignificant reparations on frozen assets that Russia will most likely not return in the close future and the abolition of sanctions will rapidly and repeatedly compensate for these losses.
Not only Ukraine, but even NATO accepts political conditions dictated by 3rd party.
The second point has always been a “red line” for the Western world, but Trump is ready to break it and de facto announce the emergence of a fresh planet order that recognizes a stronger law, allows for a change of state boundaries and allows the powers of the subjects to have their own equivalents of “the Monroe doctrine”. In another words, if the treaty is concluded in a akin form to this memorandum, it will be a partial fulfillment of the demands of the alleged "ultimatum Putin" of 2021 and almost complete fulfilment of all the conditions of the Kremlin set in fresh months.
From Ukraine's perspective, this is simply a good peace – and it is hard to anticipate a better 1 – but difficult. Not capitulation, as many Ukrainians claim, but peace signed by the side losing in the war. This is indicated by historical analogies with Finland, which besides managed to defend its statehood, as Ukraine at the beginning of planet War II, and even Kuusinen remained in Moscow, as did Medwedczuk. erstwhile it became clear that the Finnish army could inactive resist, but would not be able to reverse the destiny of the war, even at best,
This transformation can be explained in 2 ways. It is easiest to presume that the president of Ukraine simply understood how to deal with Trump: that he should not refuse him at once, but flatter him and stall him. Then his thoughts will wander, and Trump will be busy with Israel, golf, Putin, Mexico, Epstein or something else. But did Zelenski truly come to this in 2 days? He turned down Whitkoff's proposal on Tuesday, and he agreed on Thursday? It is surely possible that Zelenski considered, as any Ukrainian propaganda writers wrote, that Whitkoff's plan was developed by him and Dmitriev, that the remainder of the White home did not support him, and Trump did not really know what this was all about. Now we know that even Rubio was active in preparing the memorandum, and the president of the United States knows everything and supports the plan, so Zelenski changed his tactics accordingly.
Another reasonable explanation for the change in Kiev's position is that Driscoll presented not only the plan, but besides the ultimatum, whose terms have not yet been revealed. In addition to the written plan, Zelenski heard orally that the United States is ready to take direct action against Ukraine if Ukraine rejects the agreement, while stating that certain conditions are negotiated and there is simply a deadline for signing the final version.
This suggests that absolutely all sources compose about the advanced urgency of negotiations. Axios confirms that Driscoll and Zelenski agreed to work very intensively on the proposals, and the Financial Times even gives circumstantial dates: according to their interior sources, the White home expects Ukraine to sign the memorandum before Thanksgiving, that is before 27 November, and then immediately, before the beginning of December, to sign Russia. Then, by the end of the year, its implementation could begin (after which Trump could apply for the Nobel Peace Prize nomination in 2026).
Technically, the plan involves signing 2 separate memorandums: 1 between Ukraine and the United States and 1 between Russia and the United States. There will most likely be a direct, final agreement.
However, ‘FT’, stating the terms, immediately writes that this is unlikely. It is clear to everyone that Kiev is not presently planning to sign an agreement in this form. While this seems entirely reasonable from the position of Ukraine, the view of the Zelenski memorandum is completely contrary to the war objectives which he has declared for a year, coming down, in simplification, to "we fight for NATO membership or at least for safety guarantees." As a result, specified a peace does not let him to answer the question: “Why have we fought for 2 years and why have we not made a akin peace, if not in 2022, then in 2023?”
Therefore, the only way to force Kiev to sign the memorandum is to exert force on Zelenski from the U.S., and I am skeptical about it. So far Trump has done something against Zelensk only erstwhile and for individual reasons alone – rude behaviour in front of cameras, not due to any political or military decisions. Later Trump may have said in interviews that he is dissatisfied with someone, but the essence of his presidency in little than a year is:
He imposed very severe sanctions on Russia, accusing Putin of sabotaging the peace process;
He resumed the arms supply to Ukraine, albeit for money;
He allowed attacks with US long-range weapons in Russia, albeit indirectly, through the transfer of NATO decision-making powers.
In another words, everything Trump did in practice, he did against Russia without exerting any force on Ukraine. Unless we presume Mindichgate was the work of the United States. Not in the sense that they were investigating and collecting evidence, but that they allowed and even ordered publication of the results right now.
U.S. ties to NABU and their participation in the publication of eavesdropping material are only speculation, but so far there are no facts that propose Trump changed his position and is ready for actual alternatively than verbal force on Zelenski. It is rather possible that on Thanksgiving we will hear again: “In 2 weeks I will decide who is liable for the peace treaty not yet signed.” Or possibly this time the White home decided to put further force on Kiev. This is confirmed by the fact that Kellogg leaves his post in January and is seemingly no longer active in any trial, while the plan was written with Rubia and Vance's involvement. In another words, there is no more “the White home towers”; a common peace plan was agreed between Russia and Ukraine, supported by both “pro-Russian” Witkov and “pro-Ukrainian” Rubi. Anyway, Zelenski won't believe these threats until they're put into practice, so I surely wouldn't anticipate peace this week.
Nor should the EU be forgotten. Kaja Kallas has already stated that no peace plan can be implemented without the approval of Ukraine and the EU, and these are only ready to further weaken Russia and strengthen Ukraine. This is not to be considered Europe's actual position, due to the fact that Kaja Kallas is simply a duck without authority, and the European Commission, led by Ursula von der Leyen, has taken over all the functions of its office, and it is Leyen, not Kallas, who is engaged in actual diplomacy on behalf of the EU. I believe that in the coming days, while Zelenski will be busy talking to Trump, the European leaders will have many talks at Zoom to discuss and coordinate further actions. Stubb can already pull out a golf club, polish the balls and book a ticket to Florida.
In my opinion, much depends on the discussions of the EU leaders, due to the fact that they are taking place in a very hard financial situation in Ukraine. Let me remind you that there were 3 plans:
Reparation debt financed by Belgium;
The creation of a common EU debt akin to the debt related to ‘COVID’;
Use of the EU budget;
A fixed fund and contributions to it on a ‘anything’ basis.
I'm certain the first 3 plans are no longer feasible. Belgium has already refused, and now that the United States is curious in distributing frozen assets, it will be even more reluctant. The common debt requires a joint decision by all EU countries, and now, given the Mindichgate issue, I do not imagine that Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and even Poland will agree to a common debt. The same applies to the usage of the EU budget. I highly uncertainty that Poland will vote in favour of the actual transfer of its subsidies to Ukraine.
It turns out that the only realistic option to finance Ukraine is simply a voluntary contribution fund. It's a key aspect right now. If Europe and Ukraine want to defy Trump's pressure, they must show genuine support and unity, come out and show now that these are funds, these are ammunition, these are fresh packages of sanctions. Only then will Trump have neither the force of force nor even the moral right to exert force on Ukraine. Thus, the current ultimatum for Kiev is besides a test for Europe, and their deadline is mid-December. any decisions on Ukraine's finances for 2026 and subsequent years must be taken to the summit of EU leaders.
Incidentally, the only consequence of today's negotiations between Zelenski and his faction was his admitting that the budget is bad, while the Council was seemingly allowed to compose its own. Therefore, the fresh version will most likely take into account the deficit of 300 billion hryvnia, and what is more, the overall uncovered deficit will be increasing now.
In conclusion, everything is true:
Trump's plan favours Russia's interests, but it besides offers Ukraine rather reasonable conditions that will let the country to scope a fresh level of improvement in the coming decades and effort to follow in Finland's footsteps (unless the "Mindichs" bargain everything);
Zelenski does not plan to sign it and will stall, trying to change Trump's position while at the same time seeking EU consolidation through decisive action alternatively than words;
Trump has set strict deadlines this time, but so far there is no reason to believe that any sanctions will be imposed for failure to comply with the deadlines, but for threatening entries on Truth;
U.S. action poses a serious challenge for Europe, forcing it to show unity and readiness to defy US force through actions alternatively than words. It will be hard and time is moving out.
Peace is possible, even before fresh Year's, but only if Trump is willing to put real force on Zelenski and the EU will not agree to adequate backing for Ukraine.
